No one is surprised. WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus believes anything a communist dictatorship tells him - because the United Nations itself is a centralized paper tiger. It rushes to endorse decisions made by countries that are going to ignore the U.N. anyway. It is the only way their ineffectiveness is not exposed to the rest of the world.
The Obama administration did just that, with corn ethanol, and environmental groups wrapped him in the flag of renewable biofuels despite science showing it was worse for the environment than gasoline. A generation earlier they had also wrapped natural gas in the flag of environmentalism and continued to do so until it began to replace coal.(1) During the Bush administration, a Republican.
Then it was time for lawsuits.
The example is meant to have two attractive properties: be analytically solvable in closed form - meaning that one may compute with paper and pencil all the relevant results - and be described by simple-to-interpret graphs. Below I will describe what I came up with, but first let me explain what are the points I wish to focus on.
Urgent: Must Examine Scientific Evidence Base Of UK's COVID-19 Policy Of Ignoring WHO Advice To Isolate Cases And Trace Contacts
Reminder to all of you, do protect yourself using the simple methods recommended by the WHO - they work and save lives of yourself and others:
You may not know that we in the UK are ignoring the WHO's advice. Allyson M Pollock, professor of public health at Newcastle university put it like this:
What '5G Causes Coronavirus' Claims Share With Anti-Ag, Anti-Vax, And Anti-Natural Gas Movements - Russia
While there are too many rapid mutations in coronaviruses, they are in the same family as the common cold, to ever find a Patient Zero or even a settled family tree, analysis of the first 160 complete virus genomes to be sequenced from human patients show the original spread of the new coronavirus through its mutations.
While it may seem like an odd stance for progressive elites in the northeast to take about their fellow man, it is likely the first time that these issues were anything except academic to them. And they are not wrong for believing that people from cities are more likely to be carriers.
But while cities are more likely to be carriers, they are also more likely to have infrastructure to handle it.(1)
What about quarantine?
A new review hopes to shed some light but because the review is primary of modeling papers - many of which looked like estimates and some more like guestimates - it may be only partially useful from an applied health policy perspective. The real answers may not be known for years.
This is one of the biggest differences between the UK policy and the WHO recommendations. The UK think that Covid19 is very infectious like flu, and only for a very short time and that if you have it then likely everyone in your house already has it or will get it soon.
But the data from China and now many other places is the opposite. Covid19 is mildly infectious for a long time. It can be infectious through to death if you die and up to two weeks after recovery if you recover.
If you catch it early, often nobody else has got it from the first case. This story is often in the news - couples where one has it and the other doesn’t. Prince Charles got it for instance, and his wife Camilla didn’t get it.
The Mathematical Model For COVID19 That Guides UK Policy - Simulated Flu Pandemic Differs In Almost Every Detail From Real Data
This is a trimmed down version of my last article with just the cites from the Imperial college paper to show that in the UK we are indeed using a simulated flu pandemic to guide UK policy and that it differs in almost every detail from the real disease. I know this is hard to understand or believe. But please check my cites carefully and you will see they do.
First the background. You may not know that we in the UK are ignoring the WHO's advice. Allyson M Pollock, professor of public health at Newcastle university put it like this:
Hubble published his observations in 1929. It provides direct evidence that the galaxies in the universe are accelerating away from our reference point and implies that the universe is expanding.
The new cthulhu, Sollasina, was an echinoderm (the group that includes sea urchins, sea cucumbers, and sea stars) that had 45 tentacle-like tube feet, which it used to crawl along the ocean floor and capture food. The creature was small, about the size of a large spider. It was found in the Herefordshire Lagerstätte in the United Kingdom, a site that has proven to be a trove of fossilized ancient sea animals, and included soft tissue preservation.
But unless they have common names like 'coffee' I don't drink them. Nor should you. Especially if some charlatan slaps the words Miracle Solution on there. The Genesis II Church of Health and Healing, which is obviously not a church and can only prevent conditions no one has, is selling chlorine dioxide products that it fraudulently claims can treat or prevent COVID-19.
(Inside Science) -- Imagine putting your hand in a pile of poop. It stinks and squishes. What do you do next?
Most likely, you'll scrub that hand with plenty of soap -- and you don't need public health officials or a germ theory of disease to tell you that's the right thing to do. But when you touch the handrail on an escalator, it's much harder to remember that you could be picking up coronavirus germs.
Evolution Could Make Future Viruses Even Weirder: Some Have The Building Blocks For Their Own Metabolism
COVID-19: Why UK Is Ignoring WHO Advice - Key Differences Between UK's Simulated Flu And Real World Data
I am going to send this article to Allyson M Pollock, professor of public health and lead author of a recent paper in the British Medical Journal.
The paper is called Covid-19: why is the UK government ignoring WHO’s advice?.
The authors of this paper say that
The reasons why tracing was stopped, against WHO recommendations, have not been published.
The detailed reasons are not published but the paper that motivates the new policy has been published. I have written about this before but for the purposes of this article have followed up in more detail and I will focus this article on the paper itself.
I feel many people don't really understand clearly what contact tracing really is and why it is so effective for COVID-19. If they understood this better they might make wiser decisions. The WHO in every press briefing stress that this is the key to not just delaying the spread of COVID-19 but suppressing it and then stopping it - crushing it right down to no new cases a day.