Earth

WASHINGTON, D.C., July 16, 2019 -- Floating air particles following disasters and other largescale geological events can have a lasting impact on life on Earth. Volcanic ash can be projected up to the stratosphere and halt air traffic by lingering in the atmosphere for months. Particles from industrial accidents have the potential to travel full hemispheres before falling to the ground. A new model drawing on chaos theory, and published in this week's Chaos, from AIP Publishing, looks to help predict how particles move in such events with an eye toward potential applications for geoengineering to combat climate change.

Using available wind data, researcher Tímea Haszpra developed a model for following air particles as they travel around the globe. Using it, she has generated maps that can be used as atlases to predict how particles, such as volcanic ash or pollution, will be dispersed above the world.

"One of the most surprising parts of the research is the wide range of individual lifetimes," she said. "Lifetimes ranged from about two to 150 days for typical volcanic ash particles. More than 10% of smaller particles survive in the atmosphere as much as one year, and more than 1% survive two years."

Atmospheric particle motion exhibits fractal-like behavior, and when data is specially filtered, an object that governs chaotic particle motion and is called a chaotic saddle can be found. The paths of each simulated particle show properties that are transiently brought together by the changes in the flow of the atmosphere, akin to sitting on the saddle, before falling off the saddle and, consequently, falling to Earth.

In general, she found that particles coming from the area around the equator remain in the atmosphere for the longest time, and particles smaller than one micron could stay in the atmosphere for years before falling.

The average lifetime of a particle in the air is about one month, but they also found that particles in one area of a map could be in the air up to 10 times as long as particles nearby on the map. How these lifetimes were distributed around the globe varied depending on the season.

To illustrate the concepts in the paper, Haszpra has created an online game, called RePLaT-Chaos, that lets players learn the topic of atmospheric advection by creating and testing their own volcanic eruptions.

Haszpra believes her findings can inform future efforts that have been suggested to use sun-reflecting air particles to counteract climate change. She plans to expand on this work by incorporating historical meteorological data and climate models to better understand how the dispersion of particles might change when the climate changes.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- A new study of 736 low-income pregnant women in Illinois found that more than one-third of those who reported thoughts of self-harm did not have elevated levels of depression, according to a commonly used health questionnaire.

"One would think that having suicidal thoughts would be associated with depression, but for a large proportion of the women in our sample that wasn't the case," said University of Illinois social work professor Karen M. Tabb, the study's lead author. "Not all women who report suicidal ideation are going to meet the threshold for depression."

Women in the study were assessed for depressive symptoms using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, a 10-item questionnaire. Under a state mandate enacted in 2008, the Postpartum Mood Disorders Prevention Act, primary care doctors, obstetricians, pediatricians and other front-line clinicians in Illinois use the Edinburgh scale to screen women for perinatal depression during pregnancy and after delivery.

Each of the women in the study completed at least one depression screening in English or in Spanish at clinics run by the Champaign-Urbana Public Health District, which serves about 2,300 pregnant and postpartum women each month.

All of the women in the study were enrolled in the Women, Infants and Children Special Supplemental Nutrition Program, which serves nearly half of all pregnant women in the U.S. To be eligible for WIC benefits, women must have incomes less than 185% of the federal poverty level and be pregnant or have children under age 5.

About 4.6% of women in the sample reported suicidal thoughts, according to the study, which will be published in the Journal of Affective Disorders.

The prevalence of suicidal thoughts among the Illinois women was higher than that reported by two prior studies, which found prenatal suicidal ideation rates of 2.7% and 3.8% in samples that included both low- and high-income women.

A possible reason for the higher incidence among the Illinois women could be related to the state mandate, which requires universal screening of all pregnant women as opposed to selective screening of only those women who are in distress, the researchers wrote.

For every 1-point increase in patients' depression scores on the questionnaire, the Illinois women's odds of reporting suicidal thoughts rose by 39%, Tabb and her co-authors found.

When the researchers adjusted for risk factors such as smoking status, age, education and income, patients' odds of reporting suicidal ideation increased by 43% for every 1-point increase in their depression score.

However, 35% of the women with suicidal thoughts did not have scores on the depression questionnaire that warranted concern. This means that many women who are struggling with suicidal thoughts could be overlooked if they are not assessed for suicidal ideation as well as depressive symptoms, the researchers said.

Suicidal ideation is a significant risk factor and often a precursor for suicide attempts, recent studies showed, making it vital that thorough mental health evaluations be performed during routine clinic visits, the researchers wrote.

"Based on our findings, we suggest that practitioners should consider using instruments that screen for suicidal ideation as well as for depression to identify women who need mental health referrals and follow-up," Tabb said.

Perinatal depression, which can begin during pregnancy or up to a year after childbirth, is believed to affect up to 20% of women worldwide, making it one of the most common complications of childbearing.

Although some recent studies suggested that suicidal ideation is more prevalent among low-income women, few population-level studies have been conducted thus far and more are needed to validate possible disparities and develop appropriate interventions, Tabb and her co-authors wrote.

Tabb's team is developing a perinatal depression registry, a database that tracks women's depression symptoms, adverse birth outcomes, health conditions and known risk factors such as obesity and smoking. The registry will enable the researchers to examine the incidence of perinatal depression and suicidality among low-income populations and measure the strength of various risk factors over time.

Management of patients with suicidal ideation is as important as detection, and the registry enables case managers and other clinicians at CUPHD to jointly monitor their patients, Tabb said.

"Our study adds to a growing body of evidence that calls for collaborative treatment models - patient-centered teams led by behavioral care case managers who work with consulting psychiatrists and use depression registries to track patients' symptoms and care to ensure that no one fall through the cracks," Tabb said.

Since the emergence of molecular genetics more than fifty years ago, scientists have tried to isolate haploid mammalian cells, that is, cells with half the number of chromosomes contained in somatic cells. Haploid cells are a powerful genetic tool to analyse gene function. In the past decade, a number of researchers finally succeeded in developing haploid cell line cultures. However, these cell lines are unstable and have a tendency for diploidisation. Now, researchers at the Spanish National Cancer Research Centre (CNIO) have identified chemical compounds that increase the stability of mammalian haploid cell lines. The study is published in the latest issue of Cell Reports.

With the exception of sperm and egg cells, human cells have two sets of chromosomes, one inherited from each parent. Organisms with only one set of chromosomes, however, can be extremely useful for scientific research. "Cells with a single set of chromosomes are a powerful tool to study gene functions, because you can modify just one copy of the gene to analyse its effects on the organism," says Óscar Fernández-Capetillo, Head of the CNIO Genomic Instability Group and leader of the study.

Haploid cells in microorganisms such as yeasts have been extensively used for gaining powerful insights that have revolutionised the history of biomedicine. Yeasts were used, for instance, by the 2001 Nobel Laureates in Physiology to identify key molecules that regulate the cell cycle in eukaryotic organisms. However, yeasts and humans are separated by a billion years of evolution, and many biological mechanisms have not been retained, which means they cannot be studied in these microorganisms.

Since mammalian haploid cell cultures were not available until recently, researchers have used other tools to conduct genetic screens, such as interfering RNA. However, these alternative strategies have non-specific effects that are inconvenient for any genetic approach. Over the past years, scientists have managed to isolate mammalian haploid cell lines. First, a near-haploid cell line was obtained from a leukaemia patient; years later, methods were developed to establish embryonic haploid stem cell lines from a number of mammals, including humans. However, all these animal haploid cell cultures are highly unstable and become diploid quickly.

"Two years ago, we found that haploid cells activate mechanisms of cell death via the p53 protein; as a result, haploid cells are no longer viable in culture and progressively disappear," says Fernández-Capetillo(1). "These results explained why it is so difficult to maintain animal haploid cells in the lab."

Now, CNIO researchers have used chemical screening methods to search among nearly 1,000 compounds for those that select haploid cells against cells with a larger number of chromosomes. The study revealed that a precursor in the synthesis of the anticancer agent Taxol named DAB (10-Deacetylbacattin III) allows haploid cells to grow better and replace diploid cells in cultures.

"This compound acts on microtubules, factors involved in the migration of chromosomes during cell division. When microtubules are challenged using DAB, cells with a larger number of chromosomes are more seriously affected, while cells with a lower number of chromosomes are able to continue with cell division." This effect is not limited to haploid cells, since tetraploid cells (cells with four sets of chromosomes) exposed to DAB are also more significantly affected than diploid cells. In other words, this strategy allows researchers to generically select for cells with a lower number of chromosomes in mixed cultures of mammalian cells.

Regardless of the usefulness of these results for researchers working with animal haploid cells, the study is also of relevance for cancer researchers, as the effects of DAB can also be obtained with small doses of the anti-cancer drug Taxol. In this context, the authors want to propose that low doses of taxanes might allow for the selective elimination of polyploid cells, which recent genomic studies indicate might be present in up to 37 per cent of human tumors. Thus, "the results of this study might help identify cancer patients that might preferentially benefit from a treatment using taxol or other taxane derivatives," says Fernández-Capetillo.

Researchers from the Garvan Institute of Medical Research have developed a new method to spot rare immune cells that are reactive against cancer cells, from within a patient's own immune system.

The patented 'RAGE-seq' method enables scientists to track how immune cells evolve inside tumour tissue for the first time, revealing unprecedented insight into how to better arm the immune system to target cancer. The technique can be likened to a barcode tracker, able to scan detailed information from thousands of immune cells at a time.

"This method gives us the most detailed view yet of how immune cells behave in the human body," says Professor Chris Goodnow, Executive Director of the Garvan Institute and co-senior author of the published work. "Immune cells play a critical role in the development of disease. This method shows significant potential to help us personalise cancer treatments to the individual."

Development of the method, by Dr Mandeep Singh (Immunogenomics Laboratory) and Ghamdan Al-Eryani (Tumour Progression Laboratory) at Garvan, is published in the journal Nature Communications.

Rare immune cells that 'see' cancer

Our immune system helps protect us against foreign pathogens, such as bacteria or viruses. But it often responds poorly to cancers, which arise from the body's own cells - usually too few immune cells 'recognise' them to mount an effective immune response.

Immune cells come in many different forms - they mix-and-match different types of 'receptors' on their cell surface, which monitor the cell's environment. When an immune cell's receptors recognise a potential hazard, the cell replicates to make more copies of itself, able to target the threat more effectively.

"The immune cells that recognise cancer cells are often rare," says Associate Professor Alex Swarbrick, who heads the Tumour Progression Laboratory at Garvan. "We have to sort through thousands of cells to find these replicating cells that may make up only a small fraction of all the immune cells present in a tumour."

Building a cellular barcode tracker

Previous methods have made it possible to read the long stretches of genetic output (the RNA) that encodes an immune cell's receptor, from single cells. But they have not had the capacity to sort through the thousands of cells present in a tumour, at a single time.

The study authors developed a new method by harmonising four different genomic technologies (Oxford Nanopore Technologies, 10X Genomics, Illumina and CaptureSeq).

They first developed a way to enrich the RNA from single cells, targeting the RNAs encoding the immune cell receptors. They then developed a computational tool to accurately read full-length sequences of the immune cell receptors.

The resulting Repertoire and Gene Expression by Sequencing, or 'RAGE-seq', method works much like a barcode tracker. By 'scanning' the relevant immune cell receptors in many thousands of cells at once it can provide an accurate snapshot of how the immune cells in a tissue sample are related, and which cells may be effective at mounting a response against cancer.

"This high-throughput strategy is really opening the door to a much more detailed understanding of the cellular dynamics of the immune response," says Dr Martin Smith, Leader of the Genomic Technologies Group at Garvan's Kinghorn Centre for Clinical Genomics.

In a proof-of-principle study, the researchers used the method to sample 7,138 cells from the tumour and associated lymph node of a breast cancer patient. The team pinpointed a number of related cells that were present in both tissues, and which revealed specific genetic signatures of the immune response within the patient's tumour.

A new look at disease

The researchers say the ability to find and barcode these rare cells of the immune system has the power to guide treatment strategies based on the individual.

Immunotherapy is an emerging form of cancer therapy designed to activate the immune system to better target cancer, but not all patients respond well and current methods used to assess a patient's response give a poor snapshot of the behaviour of their immune cells.

Professor Goodnow says there is significant interest from pharmaceutical companies to better understand the immune system's response to cancer, at a resolution now available through the RAGE-seq method. "We hope RAGE-seq will be implemented in clinical trials, providing crucial information that will help potential cancer therapeutics get to the right patients more quickly."

The team is now applying the technique to samples from melanoma patients, to understand why half of patients receiving immunotherapy have a poor response. The researchers believe the method could also be applied to provide a better understanding of autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.

Restricting the amount of inshore potting for crab and lobster within marine protected areas (MPAs) can generate a "win-win" for both fishermen and the marine environment, according to the first major study exploring the issue.

The study showed that crab caught in areas of low potting levels were of greater average weight, meaning that there was a potential incentive for fishermen to fish less.

However, in areas consistently exposed to medium and high levels of potting, the crab weighed less than those caught in areas with low potting and unfished control areas.

The experiment in Lyme Bay was conducted by the University of Plymouth, and funded by Defra and the Blue Marine Foundation. It found that in areas of low potting intensity the industry was operating in a way that had little impact on seabed species or economically-important shellfish.

The only species to show any potentially adverse effect from low potting levels, compared with no fishing, was Ross coral, though this is highly sensitive and one of the species hit hardest during the 2013/14 winter storms.

The extent to which different forms of fishing are compatible with MPAs has long been a subject of debate.

In Lyme Bay, the banning of dredging and trawling in what became at the time the largest MPA in the UK led to a significant recovery of seabed life and fish and shellfish stocks, but the question remained just how much fishing with pots - a significant practice around the UK coast - could undermine that recovery.

The new report also talks about the amount of pots being used by fishermen under a voluntary code is having little impact on the marine environment, but if commercial intensity were to increase above a measurable "threshold" then reef species that have started to return following the ban on trawling could be negatively affected.

The report was written by Dr Adam Rees, who led the research as part of his PhD, Lyme Bay Project lead and Professor of Marine Ecology Martin Attrill, and Senior Research Fellow, Dr Emma Sheehan.

Dr Rees said: "When the Marine Protected Area was introduced in Lyme Bay, it brought with it a ban on trawling and dredging. In the absence of that, commercial potting saw a marked increase leading to concerns among both marine biologists and local fishermen about its long-term sustainability. Through this study, we have seen that if the growth is allowed to continue unchecked, it could undo some of the great results seen from a conservation perspective. Over time, it could also impact on the quality and quantity of the fishermen's yields so finding ways to manage fishing effort should bring benefits both for fishermen and for marine ecosystems."

The Lyme Bay and Torbay Special Area of Conservation is a 312 km² section of the English Channel off the coast of southern England, which is predominantly fished by small boats operating out of towns and villages on the same stretch of coastline.

Researchers from the University's School of Biological and Marine Sciences have been assessing the impacts of the protected area since its designation, with local fishermen playing an integral role in assisting the monitoring effort and being regularly updated on new findings which could impact their livelihoods.

This latest four-year study sought to gather evidence on the ecological impacts of potting by controlling potting effort within a number of trial areas in the Lyme Bay MPA.

It assessed impacts on the important reef species and reef community, mobile species that interact with this habitat and economically important fishery species targeted by local inshore commercial fishermen.

The report supports the Codes of Conduct, introduced by BLUE and local fishermen, which was designed to ensure potting activity is kept within sustainable limits and that the threshold of higher potting levels identified in this study is not breached.

Angus Walker, Axmouth Harbour Master and fisherman, said: "This study produced precisely what we, the fishermen, expected it would. We feel vindicated. We've been telling the Marine Management Organisation for years that our potting was not causing damage."

The University and the Blue Marine Foundation are currently working to build on the success of the Lyme Bay Project and ensure that small-scale fishermen across the UK can operate in a way that boosts both their livelihoods and conservation practices.

Charles Clover, Executive Director of the Blue Marine Foundation, added: "This study shows that there is a 'sweet spot' - an overlap of interests - between static-gear fishing and biodiversity conservation. If mobile gears can be kept out of sensitive marine areas, and potting kept to low levels, the marine environment will benefit and fishermen will enjoy a higher quality of catch. This study confirms the value of the 'high quality, low volume' approach which we and the inshore fishermen have pioneered in Lyme Bay. These results will enable the Lyme Bay Fisheries and Conservation Reserve Consultative Committee to manage the area with confidence into the future and provide invaluable advice for the managers of other marine protected areas, both around Britain's coasts and elsewhere."

A study led by the University of Birmingham has painted a shaming picture of neglect and discrimination shown towards the homeless when accessing UK health services.

Researchers interviewed 22 homeless people aged over 18 at three Midland homeless shelters in order to gauge their experience of accessing NHS services following anecdotal reports that the homeless were being denied access and faced negative experiences.

While some of the study participants described facing no barriers, others shared accounts of casual neglect, discrimination, and inadequate resources across general practice, accident and emergency departments, and mental health services.

Some reported being denied registration at a GP, while others said they were discharged from hospital onto the streets with no access or referral to primary care providers, and others said they could not access services providing support to those with substance misuse issues and mental health problems.

One participant described resorting to committing crimes so that they would be sent to prison where they could then access healthcare.

Those that took part in the study expressed high satisfaction about their experiences at specialist primary healthcare centres for people who are homeless, however these are underfunded.

The study - published in in the British Journal of General Practice - comes as, according to Shelter (i), there are over 320,000 homeless people in the UK and the number of rough sleepers in some urban areas has doubled in the last six years (ii).

Senior Lecturer Dr Vibhu Paudyal, of the University of Birmingham's School of Pharmacy, said: "Stories of homeless people being denied access to mainstream GP services were so far anecdotal which our study sadly validates as the truth.

"Perceived stigma and discrimination in healthcare settings seems to be even more persistent and shows how much work needs to be done to make primary care more inclusive for homeless people.

"Our study participants found access to mental health and substance misuse services often challenging as many have dual diagnoses.

"While specialist healthcare services that are established across the country offer these patients some comfort, exclusion from healthcare pushed some of our study participants into repeat cycles of homelessness.

"Improving access and inclusivity and prevention work particularly during an earlier stage in the homelessness cycle is the only way forward to alleviate the health impact of homelessness, its repeat cycle, and thereby to minimise homeless people's use of emergency department admissions and prevent unnecessary deaths."

The authors, among a number of recommendations, emphasised the importance of spreading good practice, and educating and informing healthcare workers about the rights and needs of our homeless population.

It follows research (iii) by Dr Paudyal and collaborators published earlier this month, also in British Journal of General Practice, also revealed the extent of the mental and physical health problems the homeless face.

They analysed routinely collected datasets from almost 1,000 patients registered to Birmingham Homeless Healthcare Centre in Birmingham city centre. The study found that nearly one in eight had been offered support for substance dependence and one in five had been offered support for alcohol misuse. A high prevalence of infectious hepatitis C was also identified.

The study showed nearly one in three of the homeless population attended an Accident and Emergency Department in the preceding 12 months. This equates to nearly 60 times the rate of A&E attendance observed in the general population.

Around the world, more than three billion people - nearly half the world's population - cook their food using solid fuels like firewood and charcoal on open fires or traditional stoves. This produces a lot of smoke, creating indoor air pollution, which, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), annually kills millions of people. This type of pollution is of particular concern in India, where women and their young children, who typically stay close to their mothers while they are cooking, bear the brunt of the health problems caused by indoor pollution.

This led the Indian government to launch a massive program - Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) - in 2016, to increase the adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), which is a clean fuel alternative that can be used for cooking. The program provides a combination of financial incentives in the form of subsidies and loans to cover the capital cost of stoves and LPG cylinder installations, and aims to generate awareness about the benefits of clean cooking. To date, around 70 million poor women, mostly in rural India, have benefitted from the program in the 35 months since its launch. Until now, few analyses of the program have been done to understand if the adoption of this new technology has led to sustained use of LPG. If LPG does not replace solid fuel use, the envisaged health and environmental benefits of the program will not be fully realized.

In their study published in Nature Energy, researchers endeavored to understand how the launch of the program has altered both the adoption and use of LPG. They employed an LPG sales dataset from one district of a southern state of India (Koppal district in Karnataka state) to carry out their analysis. This is a novel approach, as previous analyses have relied largely on self-reported survey data, which may suffer from inherent biases.

The study addressed four questions: First, the team looked into how long it would have taken to reach the current level of LPG adoption in a business-as-usual scenario, in other words, in the absence of the program. Second, they asked to what extent PMUY consumers are using LPG compared to general (non-PMUY) rural consumers. As part of this exercise, the researchers compared PMUY customers' use of LPG with that of other rural peers, rather than to urban or average national consumers' use of the fuel, as the rural population has easier access to non-monetized solid fuels like firewood, as well as distinct livelihoods and lifestyles compared to the urban population. The common narrative that the use of fuels is likely to increase gradually as people become more familiar with them, led the team to also examine whether LPG use for PMUY beneficiaries will increase over time. Lastly, the team examined the impact of price fluctuations and seasonal variations on LPG consumption.

The analysis indicates that the program has fast-tracked LPG consumer enrolments by about 16 months in the region assessed, while the consumption of LPG by program beneficiaries is estimated to be about half that of the average rural consumer (2.3 compared to 4.7 cylinders of 14.2 kg LPG annually). This, in turn, is about half of what would be required by an average family in India to cook exclusively with LPG - a typical rural family would require about 10 cylinders per year. The team analyzed up to five years of LPG purchase data for general rural customers since they adopted LPG and found no discernable changes in LPG consumption with experience or time for these users. In their first three years as customers, roughly 75% of consumers' LPG cylinder purchases either stayed the same or fluctuated by one to two cylinders. The analysis also indicates that consumers are sensitive to changes in LPG prices and that there is significant seasonal variation in purchases of LPG over a year. Refill rates in summer when agricultural activity is limited, are for instance about 10% lower than rates during cropping and harvest seasons when people are busy with agricultural work.

"Our work reaffirms that there is a distinct difference between the adoption of a new technology and its sustained use. The PMUY was specifically designed to promote adoption, and based on that metric, this program is an unparalleled success, with near universal LPG access expected within the next couple of years. However, if we focus on the ultimate goal of smokeless kitchens, PMUY must be modified to explicitly incentivize regular LPG use. Our study suggests some obvious mid-course corrections to the program to encourage regular use of LPG. This includes the use of seasonal vouchers during low cash flow periods for poor rural agricultural households, and behavioral nudges and stronger information and education campaigns," says Abhishek Kar, lead author of the study. Kar is a doctoral candidate at the University of British Columbia in Canada, and started the work as part of the IIASA Young Scientist Summer Program (YSSP).

According to the researchers, the rural general population (non-PMUY beneficiaries) should also be targeted by incentives to advance regular LPG use, as their average use is still very low across rural India. As some African countries are planning to emulate India's PMUY, the lessons from this evaluation could also be highly relevant to policy beyond India.

"Increasing the adoption of LPG among rural, poor populations is a daunting task, which the government of India has admirably achieved. Getting people to use LPG regularly is however a far more difficult task. Addressing this requires further research to better understand the barriers to regular use and to establish effective strategies to overcome these," concludes Shonali Pachauri, study coauthor and a researcher in the IIASA Energy Program.

Bottom Line: A research letter analyzed federally mandated data on children in foster care in the United States to examine how many children entered foster care because of parental drug use during the 2000 to 2017 fiscal years. There were nearly 5 million foster care entries during this period, of which nearly 1.2 million (about 23%) were home removals because of parental drug use. The number of foster care entries because of parental drug use rose from 39,130 of 269,382 removals (14.5%) in 2000 to 96,672 of 266,583 removals (36.3%) in 2017. These findings coincide with increasing trends in opioid use and overdose deaths nationwide during this period. However, the authors acknowledge factors other than drug use may have influenced foster care entries for parental drug use.

BRAZZAVILLE, Republic of Congo (July 15, 2019) - A new study says that the tropical forests of Western Equatorial Africa (WEA) - which include significant stands of Intact Forest Landscapes (IFLs) - are increasingly coming under pressure from logging, poaching, and associated disturbances.

The tropical forests of WEA are comprised of significant stands of IFLs, which are forest and associated mosaics lacking overt human disturbance such as infrastructure. The vast majority of IFLs found in the Republic of Congo are located in the north of the country, which is also inhabited by extraordinary biodiversity, including chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) and western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla). Forests of northern Congo are also comprised of timber-rich stands, the exploitation of which is a big driver of the region's economy and development.

Publishing in the journal Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, researchers from Lincoln Park Zoo, Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), and Washington University in St. Louis, found that logging road construction had accelerated over the last two decades and has led to a dramatic decline of IFLs. Increased human immigration and degradation of natural resources follows in the wake of such road expansion.

The researchers, together with Park authorities, documented the first instances of elephant poacher incursions in Goualougo Triangle region of Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park (NNNP) - considered the most pristine block of rainforest remaining in the entire Congo Basin. This coincided with the arrival of roads and active logging in adjacent forest. Increased access to IFLs that facilitates illegal hunting raises concern and increases challenges for authorities tasked with protecting wildlife across WEA.

As part of a regional monitoring effort, researchers partnered with local government officials and the timber company working in the region to assess ape abundances in relation to habitat characteristics and human-caused disturbances, comparing IFLs and non-IFL areas in the Sangha Trinational landscape, a transboundary UNESCO World Heritage site in the Republic of Congo, Cameroon and Central African Republic.

They found that IFLs had higher tree densities and less terrestrial vegetation than logged habitats. Results also indicate few ape resources were exploited in the areas logged twice and areas with tree stems removed had higher abundances of ape preferred terrestrial herbs, which may contribute to ape survival prospects. In addition, they found that chimpanzees and gorillas occur at high densities in both IFLs and as non-IFLs. Differences in the lower abundance of large trees in exploited forest were however identified to coincide with differences in ape resource use. The chimpanzee tree nesting niche was reduced in non-IFLs, as night nests were constructed significantly closer to the ground than in IFLs.

Importantly, the study combined data collected at local scales with larger regional satellite monitoring efforts. The identification of erroneously classified IFLs in the Kabo logging concession in this investigation highlights how verifying remotely sensed information is necessary to ensure accuracy. To identify other less visible human-caused impacts, researchers assessed direct and indirect impacts of road expansion and illegal hunting on wildlife in these remote areas. They urge that the results of biodiversity assessments and strategic aspects of long-term protection should be taken into account when developing reduced impact logging (RIL) guidelines in non-certified and certified logging concessions like those bordering the NNNP.

The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) demands adherence to practices that include protecting biological, environmental service, social and cultural values that are significant or critically important. Such values should also be taken into consideration when identifying conservation set asides. For example, the majority of the remaining IFLs in the Kabo concession is within the Djeke Triangle, which is contiguous but outside the boundaries of the Ndoki National Park in the Central African Republic and the NNNP in the Republic of Congo. Thus, this area is a strategic location for curbing future poaching incursions into both protected areas. It also comprises the home ranges of gorillas habituated to human presence for scientific study and tourism development.

"With only eight percent of forests within Western Equatorial Africa remaining intact and on the decline, the preservation of such habitats should be a priority," said David Morgan lead author of the research and conservation scientist at Lincoln Park Zoo.

Emma Stokes, WCS's Regional Director for Central Africa, said: "Intact Forests are important not only for elephants, chimpanzees, and gorillas, but also for climate regulation, indigenous cultures and overall ecosystem health; their loss has a disproportionate impact on the surrounding area."

It's a common sight on casino floors: patrons jumping from slot machine to slot machine before eventually hunkering down at a game that's due for the next big payout. But can players - even the regulars who frequent a particular property - really tell the difference between the house edge on one game from that of another?

Nope. At least not according to a series of recent studies led by Anthony Lucas, a UNLV Hospitality College professor and former gaming industry operations analyst.

For the past several years, Lucas and colleague Katherine Spilde from San Diego State University have taken to casino floors on multiple properties in the U.S., Australia, and Mexico to investigate. Their results contradict long-held beliefs by casino operators about a player's ability to detect differences in how much - and how often - a slot machine pays.

"I think some operators are naturally and understandably cautious of new information that challenges traditional industry practices," said Lucas. "But we must consider how we know what we know. This is where our work takes on a Moneyball-like aspect - questioning the wisdom of widely held beliefs when data show that a new way of thinking may be better."

In their latest study, the UNLV-led research team compared two pairs of reel slot games at a "locals" casino in suburban Sydney, Australia, where all wagering occurs on electronic gaming devices.

Their process is relatively straightforward: take two identical slot machines, positioned in similar places on a casino floor, but vary the par - the percent of total coin-in that the machine keeps over time. For example, if the par on a game is set at 10 percent, the machine would be expected to retain $10 of every $100 wagered, on average, over the long term. But in the short term, this rarely happens, increasing the difficulty of par detection.

For this study, researchers compared the daily performance of pairings for the games "Tokyo Rose" and "Dragon's Fortune X" over a nine-month period. The pars within each pairing ranged from 7.98 percent on the low end to 14.93 percent on the high end.

Researchers measured daily coin-in for each machine as well as its T-win, a formula that multiplies coin-in and par to calculate a machine's expected value, or its theoretical win. If, over the course of the nine-month test, regular players could detect a difference in the pars, this comparison would reveal whether (and how much) players migrated from higher par to lower par games.

As Lucas predicted, differences between the high and low par games remained stable throughout the length of the study, which meant that there was no statistically significant indication of play migration.

And while the lower par machines had more coin-in over the course of the study period, the T-win was greater on average for the high par machines. The positive impact from the elevated T-win on revenue for the higher par machines more than compensated for the decline in coin-in on those machines.

"Casino operators should take note of the substantial increases in T-win, as they are responsible for optimizing revenues, not coin-in," said Lucas.

The results were also consistent with findings from the team's previous studies, which analyzed 11 pairs of games over 180 days at gaming properties in U.S., Mexico and Australia.

So, other than busting one of gaming's great myths, why does this matter?

Pars are an important factor for casinos looking to optimize revenues, as the bulk of slot revenues come from reel slots, and a lion's share of a casino's overall profits come from slot operations. While there are exceptions to this rule, it is true for most of the world's casinos.

"Ultimately, operators are responsible for optimizing slot revenues, which is no simple task," Lucas said. "Knowing which par will produce the greatest win is most helpful, but the optimization issue becomes more complex when the possibility of player detection is introduced."

That's where industry perspective is mixed, as operators have expressed concerns that short-term gains from higher pars could lead to long-term losses as players leave perceived "tight" slot floors for the greener pastures of their competitors.

To account for this concern, researchers extended length of time from previous work, from six months to nine months. They also expanded the difference in pars between matched pairs from 4.9 percent in the initial study to 6.95 percent in the current study.

In a concurrent study, the researchers compared the Australian data with four, two-game pairings at two similarly situated casinos in Mexico. Par differences for those games were even more drastic - ranging from 7.98 to 8.9 percent.

Despite these factors, in both instances the results still found no evidence of players moving away from higher-par machines to their low-par counterparts, and the high-par games continued to post substantially greater revenues.

"Put simply, our results suggest that greater pars produce greater revenues, without the risk of brand damage resulting from 'price' detection," Lucas said.

Los Angeles, Calif. - Investigators from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG), the world's largest and longest-established HIV research network, today announced that the Journal of Clinical Investigation published new findings from the ACTG HIV Reservoirs Cohort Study (A5321). The study found that HIV DNA remained in the cerebrospinal fluid of half of participants with well-managed HIV (virologic suppression in the plasma), confirming that the central nervous system (CNS) is a major reservoir for latent HIV. Individuals who harbored HIV DNA in the cerebrospinal fluid were more likely than other study participants to experience cognitive deficits on neurocognitive testing.

"The persistence of HIV in sanctuary sites in the human body, even in the presence of long-term therapy, is a challenge to HIV remission and cure that the ACTG is actively working to address," said ACTG Chair Judith Currier, M.D., MSc, University of California Los Angeles. "Because neurocognitive function can be compromised even in individuals whose HIV is well treated, it is very important that we understand HIV persistence in the CNS so that we can develop strategies to treat it. This study provides preliminary insights into these challenges."

This substudy in the ACTG HIV Reservoirs Cohort Study (A5321) was led by Serena Spudich, M.D., Yale University, the late Kevin Robertson, Ph.D., University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and John Mellors, M.D., University of Pittsburgh. The study included 69 participants with well-treated HIV who had their cerebrospinal fluid and blood collected and underwent neurocognitive assessments, which included tests of memory, learning, motor function, and more. Participants were mostly male (97 percent) and had been on HIV treatment for a median of almost nine years, with a good response to medications (HIV viral loads in the plasma were all

While the study established an association between HIV DNA in cerebrospinal fluid with poorer performance on cognitive tests, researchers stressed that it did not establish a causal relationship, noting that there could be several explanations for the findings. Further studies will help determine strategies to reverse this persistence and improve neurological functioning in individuals with long-standing HIV.

Since the Antarctic ozone hole was detected in 1985, depletion of the ozone layer--the "big umbrella" that protects all life on Earth--has raised considerable concern. The efforts of international communities led to the success of the "Montreal Protocol on Substances that Destroy the Ozone Layer", signed in 1987, which banned global production and usage of chlorofluorocarbons, the leading cause of the depleted ozone. Since then, ozone depleting substances (ODSs) in the stratosphere have gradually been erased and further ozone destruction avoided. The ozone layer has been gradually recovering from the bottom up, and scientists estimate it will reach the level of the 1980s by the middle of this century.

"However, strong volcanic eruptions, especially when a super volcano erupts, will have a strong impact on ozone, and might interrupt the ozone recovery processes," says Associate Professor Ke Wei from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Wei is the corresponding author of a paper recently published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

To estimate the effect of a possible super volcano on the recovering ozone layer, Wei's team worked with Russian scientists and used a transport model and a chemistry-climate model to simulate the impact of super volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric ozone during different ozone recovery periods.

The results show that the percentage of global mean total column ozone depletion in the 'half ODSs level of the 1990s' scenario is approximately 6%, and the percentage is 6.4% in the tropics. When all anthropogenic ODSs are removed and only natural sources (mainly CH3Cl and CH3Br) remain, a super volcanic eruption produces a global mean ozone depletion of 2.5%, with a 4.4% loss in the tropics.

"Such 'few' destructions shouldn't be underestimated, as the Ozone Assessment Report in 2014 by the World Meteorological Organization suggested an ozone depletion of 2.5% outside the polar regions during the worst depletion period in the 1990s," says the lead author, Dr. Luyang Xu.

Xu is concerned that, since super volcanic eruptions might also inject large load of halogens into the atmosphere, which directly destroy ozone in the stratosphere, the true depletion caused by super volcanoes might therefore be even more serious than the estimation.

However, current observations and studies are unable to provide enough information on the exact quantities of volcanic halogens entering the stratosphere. Moreover, in the Paleozoic Era, when the ozone layer was relatively weak and thin, could a super volcanic eruption have destroyed the thin stratospheric ozone layer and further influenced the evolution of life and the environment? All these questions need to be further investigated.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. [Brown University] -- A new study finds that climate change will put many conifer species native to small islands around the world on the road to extinction by 2070, even after allowing for some realistic wiggle room in the range of climate conditions those species might be able to withstand.

The study, led by researchers from Brown University, found that up to a quarter of the 55 conifer species (a group that includes fir and pine trees) included in the study will face extinction based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions for future global warming. Species most at risk tend to be those native to smaller islands, the study found, with extinction risk increasing rapidly on islands smaller than 20,000 square kilometers.

"Our work shows that species native to relatively small islands are in a lot of danger from climate change, and relatively soon," said Dov Sax, deputy director of the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society and a study coauthor. "But the work also helps us to identify which species are most at risk and which are least at risk, which helps to prioritize conservation."

The research, published in Nature Climate Change, takes an emerging approach to studying extinction risk. Researchers have traditionally assessed risk by looking at the range of climate conditions in a species' native range and assuming that those are the climate limits the species can withstand. But for this new study, the researchers hoped to use a potentially more realistic estimate of the climate conditions that species can handle.

"If you just look at conditions in native ranges and you model risk off of that, you'd conclude that everything on small islands is doomed," said Sax, who is a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at Brown. "But we know that many of these species have survived past instances of climate change, so what we wanted to do here was think about what conditions species could potentially thrive in if they needed to."

To do that, the researchers used data on where members of a given species are known to survive and thrive outside their native ranges. Conifers are a popular for planting in lawns and gardens, which means there are plenty of documented instances of individual trees and populations living away from their native islands in a variety of climates.

Data on where these species are known to live enabled the researchers to construct three categories of climate niches for the species in the study. First is the realized niche, which consists of the climate conditions in a species' native range. Second is the fundamental niche, which includes conditions outside those within a species' native range in which plants can reproduce well enough to sustain a population on their own. The researchers determined that by looking for instances where species, likely first planted horticulturally, were able to leak out into the wild and establish breeding populations. Third is the tolerance niche -- the conditions in which individual plants can survive, but are not able to reproduce at a rate that sustains a population. In other words, species pushed to the tolerance niche are on the road to extinction.

Having established niche categories for each species, the researchers then used IPCC estimates of future climate change to see which were in extinction danger. The study found that 23.6 percent of species in the study will be outside their fundamental niches under the IPCC's most extreme climate scenario, which Sax points out is also the most likely scenario given our current carbon emission levels. Some species, the analysis showed, will be outside even their tolerances niches. Importantly, Sax says, estimates of expanded niches helps to give an idea which specific species are at risk and which are not, which could be important for conservation.

"At first, we were encouraged to discover that most species show a lot of wiggle room in their climatic niches," said Kyle Rosenblad, a research in Sax's lab and a study coauthor. "But alarmingly, all this wiggle room still isn't enough to buffer some of them from predicted changes in climate."

The study showed that the Canary Island Pine, for example, is expected to stay within its fundamental niche -- the climate conditions where it is found to reproduce on its own outside its native range -- suggesting that it is potentially safe from extinction. On the other end of the spectrum is the Bermuda Cedar, which is expected to be pushed out of not only its fundamental niche, but even its tolerance niche. That means that there will be no place on its native island of Bermuda where individuals from this species could survive.

A third category includes species like the Norfolk Island Pine, which is native to the small island of Norfolk in the South Pacific. Future climate conditions in Norfolk are expected to be outside the species' fundamental niche, but within its tolerance niche. That means individuals will still be able to survive in some places, but they won't be able to reproduce without human assistance. That makes extinction inevitable without human intervention.

"We found a whole range of range of species that will look like they're fine," Sax said. "They'll be alive and you may even see some seedlings. But since they can't reproduce sufficiently to maintain their population on their own, they'll actually be on the road to extinction."

By identifying the species most at risk for extinction, Sax says, the study may help to direct efforts to save them through engineering solutions, such as irrigation or other strategies. And by identifying the species with a good chance of surviving, the study could help to concentrate conservation efforts toward preserving their habitats. That would be of benefit of not only conifers, but other plant species more broadly.

"If you protect areas that are good for these conifers, you protect areas that are good for other plant species as well," Sax said.

Non-native parrots can cause substantial agricultural damage and threaten native biodiversity, although impacts vary strongly depending on where these parrots have been introduced. Brought to Europe as pets, escaped or released parrots have established numerous wild populations across Europe. Tens of thousands of ring-necked and monk parakeets make up the bulk of Europe's parrots, but several more species are gaining a foothold too.

A pan-European team of researchers, conservationists, wildlife managers and policy-makers worked together under the umbrella of ParrotNet, an EU COST Action, and have reviewed the available evidence on parrot damage, concluding that measures to prevent parrots from invading new areas are paramount for limiting future harm. Their findings are published in the open-access journal NeoBiota.

Introduced parrots can damage the environment, but severe impacts remain rare and localised. So far, most reports of damage are linked to the widespread and locally abundant ring-necked and monk parakeets. Studies show that in their native ranges, both species can and regularly do inflict large crop losses, but in Europe, expectations of comparable widespread and severe damage to agriculture have so far failed to materialise.

In Europe, competition with native species presents a more serious problem, especially for ring-necked parakeets as they can compete with native species for food and breeding sites. Meanwhile, in the Americas, monk parakeets are notorious for the damage their stick nests cause to power infrastructures by catching fire, yet very little evidence for such problems exist in Europe.

Reported impacts for other parakeet species in Europe are virtually nonexistent, probably because these species have been introduced more recently and currently exist as relatively small and localised populations.

Dr Diederik Strubbe of the Terrestrial Ecology Unit, Ghent University (Belgium) elaborates:

"It was already well known that introduced parakeets can cause damage. There is the oft-cited example of a vineyard in Surrey (UK) where ring-necked parakeets caused a loss of thousands of bottles of wine. In Seville (Spain), the same parakeet species is threatening an endangered native bat population by evicting them from their roosting tree cavities. Our review of all reported impacts however shows that such severe damage is not the norm. In most cases, parakeets introduced to Europe only do limited damage and, for example, about half of the studies focusing on competition between introduced parakeets and native species explicitly report no evidence of impact."

The study also highlights that differences in the type of damage, and the way they are reported and summarised influences the outcomes of invasive species impact assessments.

The generalised threat level that invasive species pose is often based on their worst known impacts, whilst the capabilities of a species to do damage often requires specific circumstances. While this is relevant information for identifying those invaders that can potentially have major impacts, it is not necessarily representative of the impacts the species is likely to have when introduced to a new area. Similarly, including damage reports from the native range or from other invaded ranges typically results in higher threat level estimates compared to what actually has been observed in Europe.

What can be done to mitigate parakeet impacts?

Based on the results of the study, the ParrotNet members also published a 'policy brief', summarising and discussing the implications of their findings for policy makers and wildlife managers. Their recommendations include stricter regulation aimed at preventing parakeet introductions, rapid response when emerging populations are detected and better dissemination of information to the public about the impact parakeets can have. For example, using bird feeders that parakeets cannot access may help reduce the abundance of these birds in cities.

Prof. Jim Groombridge of the Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology (DICE), School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent (UK) comments:

"What should be done to minimise damage by invasive parakeets is ultimately up to policy-makers. But as scientists, we stress that our work again highlights that the best way to combat invasive species is to prevent their introduction and spread. Parakeet populations have already been successfully removed, for example, from islands such as the Seychelles, demonstrating that it is possible to stop them when prompt and decisive action is taken by governments. For the already established and large parakeet populations that can be found across parts of Europe, there is no 'silver bullet' solution to the problems they may locally pose. More applied research is needed to find cost-effective and acceptable methods to reduce parakeet impacts in those areas where they do cause damage".

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. (July 15, 2019) - U.S. Army game-theory research using artificial intelligence may help treat cancer and other diseases, improve cybersecurity, deploy Soldiers and assets more efficiently and even win a poker game.

New research, published in Science, and conducted by scientists at Carnegie Mellon University, developed an artificial intelligence program called Pluribus that defeated leading professionals in six-player no-limit Texas hold'em poker.

The Army and National Science Foundation funded the mathematics modeling portion of the research, while funding from Facebook was specific to the poker.

"It's all about strategy," said Dr. Purush Iyer, division chief, network sciences at the Army Research Office, an element of the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command's Army Research Laboratory. "A limiting factor in game theory has always been scalability (i.e., ability to deal with exponentially increasing state space). Poker is an accessible example to show how these mathematical models can be used to devise strategies for situations where a person doesn't have complete information - they don't know what the adversaries will do, and what their capabilities are."

This research is extremely relevant to many real-world and military challenges that involve multiple parties such as cybersecurity and defense posturing, he said.

Poker has been an AI challenge because it is an incomplete information game, where players cannot be certain which cards are in play and opponents can, and will, bluff, much like military strategy.

"Thus far, superhuman AI milestones in strategic reasoning have been limited to two-party competition," said Dr. Tuomas Sandholm, Angel Jordan Professor of Computer Science, who developed Pluribus with Noam Brown, who is finishing his doctorate in Carnegie Mellon's Computer Science Department as a research scientist at Facebook AI. "The ability to beat five other players in such a complicated game opens up new opportunities to use AI to solve a wide variety of real-world problems."

"Playing a six-player game rather than head-to-head requires fundamental changes in how the AI develops its playing strategy," said Brown, who joined Facebook AI last year.

Pluribus dispenses with theoretical guarantees of success and nevertheless develops strategies that enable it to consistently outplay opponents. Pluribus first computes a blueprint strategy by playing six copies of itself, which is sufficient for the first round of betting. From that point on, Pluribus does a more detailed search of possible moves in a finer-grained abstraction of game. It looks ahead several moves as it does so, but not requiring looking ahead all the way to the end of the game, which would be computationally prohibitive. Limited-lookahead search is a standard approach in perfect-information games, but is extremely challenging in imperfect-information games. A new limited-lookahead search algorithm is the main breakthrough that enabled Pluribus to achieve superhuman multi-player poker.

The software also seeks to be unpredictable. For instance, betting would make sense if the AI held the best possible hand, but if the AI bets only when it has the best hand, opponents will quickly catch on. So Pluribus calculates how it would act with every possible hand it could hold and then computes a strategy that is balanced across all of those possibilities.

With Army funding, Sandholm and some of his other students are developing related techniques for bio-steering, where the researchers are computing optimal treatment plans that steer a patient's immune system to better fight cancers, autoimmune diseases, infections, etc.

Previous Army-funded game theory research is now being used by the Transportation Security Administration, the U.S. Coast Guard and the Los Angeles Metro Rail to schedule resources in a manner that decreases cost for the those organizations ensuring safety while increasing the costs for an adversary, thus reducing the chances for attacks.

Furthermore, Army-funded foundational research in algorithmic game theory has been used in civil society to reduce poaching of elephants in Queen Elizabeth Forest, Uganda, and tigers in Southeast Asia, as well as in addressing homelessness and implementing HIV-prevention campaigns in Los Angeles.

"The research work of Dr. Sandholm and others will be used in a variety of ways in the not-too-distant future to address societal problems in a cost-effective manner," Iyer said. "Dr. Sandholm's work is an exciting advance in game-theory; the applications are enormous."

The CCDC Army Research Laboratory (ARL) is an element of the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command. As the Army's corporate research laboratory, ARL discovers, innovates and transitions science and technology to ensure dominant strategic land power. Through collaboration across the command's core technical competencies, CCDC leads in the discovery, development and delivery of the technology-based capabilities required to make Soldiers more lethal to win our Nation's wars and come home safely. CCDC is a major subordinate command of the U.S. Army Futures Command.