Things look bleak for the Southwest and much of America's breadbasket, the Great Plains. A "megadrought" likely will occur late in this century, and it could last for three decades, according to a new report by Cornell University and NASA researchers in Science Advances.
With a drier future and higher regional temperatures amplifying possible late-century droughts, the situation presents a major adaptation challenge for managing the region's water needs, explains Toby Ault, Cornell associate professor of earth and atmospheric sciences, co-author of the study with Benjamin Cook and Jason Smerdon of NASA.
By examining tree rings and other physical clues, previous research had identified a period of time called Medieval Climate Anomaly - from the year 1100 to the year 1300 - when megadroughts were more common. By analyzing data from 17 state-of-the-art global climate models, the researchers learned that western North America's future drought risk exceeded even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.
"The results were striking. As a society, we've weighted the dice toward megadrought. Data clearly point to a high risk in the Southwest and Great Plains, as we continue to add carbon dioxide into our atmosphere," said Ault. "However, if we manage to get serious about lowering greenhouse gases within the next 10 years, we could face a lower risk.
"Hurricanes and tornadoes are natural hazards and they strike fast. A megadrought is a natural hazard, but it unfolds slowly - over a period of decades. It's just another natural hazard and one we can manage."
Ault wants to lower carbon dioxide emissions quickly. "The time to act is now. The time to start planning for adaptation is now," he said. "We need to assess what the rest of this century will look like for our children and grandchildren."