A new analysis suggests that large-scale wave energy systems developed in the Pacific Northwest could provide steady, dependable energy and be integrated into the overall energy grid at lower costs than other forms of alternative energy, like wind power.
The findings confirm what advocates believe - that wave energy will have fewer problems with variability than some energy sources and that by balancing wave energy production over a larger geographic area, the variability can be even further reduced. High cost and variability of alternative energy sources hold back their wider use - if wind or solar energy decreases and varies widely, then some other energy production has to back it up, and that adds to the overall cost of energy supply. In Germany, energy companies are making more profit selling 'spot' energy to the government when solar dips than they made producing electricity 24 hours a day.
Unlike solar, and certainly wind, waves are always available.
"Whenever any new form of energy is added, a challenge is to integrate it into the system along with the other sources," said Ted Brekken, an associate professor and renewable energy expert in the College of Engineering at Oregon State University. "By producing wave energy from a range of different sites, possibly with different types of technology, and taking advantage of the comparative consistency of the wave resource itself, it appears that wave energy integration should be easier than that of wind energy. The reserve, or backup generation, necessary for wave energy integration should be minimal."
This estimate of the cost of integrating wave energy indicated that it would be 10 percent or less than the actual charges being made for the integration of wind energy. Energy integration, however, is just one component of the overall cost of the power generated. Wave energy, still in the infancy of its development, is not yet cost competitive on an overall basis - which means cost.
Wave energy is not commercially produced in the Pacific Northwest but some believe its future potential is significant, and costs should come down as technologies improve and more systems are developed - the miracle of capitalism that is always touted about alternative energy, ironically only as long as the government mandates and subsidizes it. The study estimated a 500 megawatt of generating capacity addition in this region by 2025, which would be comparable to approximately five extremely large wind farms, slightly less than the tiniest nuclear reactor in the U.S.
Another strength of wave energy, the study suggested, is that its short-term generation capacity can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy over a time scale ranging from minutes to hours, and with some accuracy even seasonally or annually. It might make sense. The Pacific Northwest has some of the nation's best wave energy resources and is home to the Northwest National Marine Renewable Energy Center.
Claims that wave energy in the region will spur economic growth, help diversify the energy portfolio, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reduce transmission losses, are all cookie-cutter rationalizations that defy economics. The real value is that waves are always moving and that means that unlike solar and wind sources, wave energy is not based on wildly optimistic projections about availability. The only fabricated number is how costs will drop. No company with a steady stream of government money lowers costs and prices.
Published in Renewable Energy. This study was a collaboration of researchers at OSU, the University of Victoria, and alternative energy companies.