Tech

At JST Strategic Basic Research Programs, the research group led by associate professor Yuya Oaki and graduate student (at the time) Hiromichi Numazawa of Faculty of Science and Technology, Keio University established a new design policy for organic materials for the anode of lithium-ion secondary cells in a joint work with research associate Yasuhiko Igarashi of Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, through the use of Materials Informatics (MI)1). A high-capacity and high-stability material was successfully obtained via an extremely small number of experiments.

In order to conserve resources for batteries, organic materials without the use of metal is being researched worldwide. Traditionally, search for anode materials for lithium batteries and sodium-ion batteries had to rely on trial and error or experience and intuition of researchers.

MI generally performs machine learning for a large-scale data (big data), and is a technique that reduces involvement of researchers' experience and intuition. One of the challenges was how experimental researchers use their own small-scale data and empirical knowledge.

The research group examined a method, "experiment-oriented MI", which fuses small-scale but relatively accurate experimental data with experience and intuition of experimental researchers?, and has achieved improved yield of nanosheet materials and so on.

In this study, the capacity of 16 organic compounds as an anode was measured; further, a small number of factors that can determine the capacity using sparse modelingn2), which is a data science technique, was identified. Based on this result, a capacity prediction formula was developed by considering the identified factors as variables (prediction model). Next, 11 commercially available compounds, with expectation for a certain capacity as an anode, were selected partially based on the experience and intuition of researchers, and the predicted capacity value was calculated prior to the experiment. Further, the capacity of three compounds with the highest predicted value was measured, and two compounds were observed to exhibit high capacity. Subsequently, one of these compounds, the thiophene compound, was polymerized and a polymer anode material with improved capacity, durability, and quick charge-discharge property was obtained.

The design policy for the organic anode material established in the present study is important for further improvement in performance. Combining a small experimental dataset, experience and intuition of researchers, and machine learning led to a successful discovery of a high-performance material. It also showed the effectiveness of combining experimental science and MI in improving the efficiency of material search.

Every vertebrate, whatever its eventual form, starts embryonic life in the same way - as a hollow ball or disc of cells called a blastula. In theory, knowing the mechanism through which the blastula is formed into the shape of an animal could help correct defects and even, one day, regenerate body parts. But evolution and genetics are of little help in understanding this process. Now, however, Vincent Fleury and Ameya Vaishnavi Murukutla from Université Paris Diderot, Paris, France have used experiments with chicken embryos to propose a mechanism for vertebrate limb formation. These findings have been published in the journal EPJ E.

Fleury first suggested in 2005 that animal morphogenesis starts by parts of the round blastula being pulled out and deformed in a process that could be thought of as 'string pulling'. His group later showed that the blastula consists of a series of concentric rings, like Russian dolls, and that each forms a different part of the animal.

The novelty of the current study arises from the use of electric shocks to trigger limb formation much more suddenly and rapidly than in natural embryogenesis. The principle behind this is the same phenomenon of bioelectricity that was pioneered by the eighteenth-century Italian physician Galvani, who showed that an electric shock would stimulate even dead muscles into motion. In this study, the researchers extracted early chicken embryos from eggs, incubated them, applied an electric shock and observed them through a powerful microscope. The shock greatly accelerated the formation of the limb and tail buds. Therefore, Fleury and Murukutla were able to see the concentric rings making up the blastula deform in a cascade, with each one's deformation inducing the next to change shape. The authors suggest that knowledge of this phenomenon might eventually lead to the electrical engineering of the tissues of living animals, or of human patients.

As many people will remember from school science classes, bacteria growing on solid surfaces form colonies that can be easily visible to the naked eye. Each of these is a complex biological system in its own right; colonies display collective behaviours that indicate a kind of 'social intelligence' and grow in fractal patterns that can resemble snowflakes. Despite this complexity, colony growth can be modelled using principles of basic physics. Lautaro Vassallo and his co-workers in Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Argentina have modelled such growth using a novel method in which the behaviour of each of the bacteria is simulated separately. This work has now been published in the journal EPJ B.

A bacterial colony grows from a single cell, so all the bacteria are genetically similar clones of that original cell. Vassallo and his team simulated this pattern of growth on computers while varying different parameters: 'biological' ones such as the speed of cell division and the availability of nutrients, as well as 'physical' ones such as the mechanical forces between neighbouring cells. Their results agreed very well with patterns that have been observed experimentally. In the simulation, as in nature, all colonies began as compact round blobs with the snowflake-like fractal patterns emerging at a later stage.

The researchers used a multi-fractal analysis technique to describe the patterns produced by one specific type of bacterial movement: sliding. This means that the bacteria don't move independently but push each other within the colony by dividing and competing for the same space. This is only one of at least six well-defined types of bacterial motion, but it is particularly important as colonies use it to form persistent and medically challenging biofilms. Vassallo and his co-workers expect to apply their technique to simulating the other movement types, however, and even to modelling communication between bacteria within a colony.

Researchers from the Institute of Microbiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have reported a novel biophotovoltaics (BPV) system based on a synthetic microbial consortium with constrained electron flow. This BPV system can stably operate for more than 40 days, setting a new BPV longevity milestone, according to a recent article in Nature Communications.

BPV is an emerging technology that employs biological photosynthetic materials (mainly living photosynthetic microorganisms) to convert solar energy into electricity. BPV is more environmentally friendly and potentially more cost-effective than semiconductor-based photovoltaics (PV), given the toxicity and hard-to-recycle nature of PV materials.

However, the power densities of BPV systems reported to date have been low, since photosynthetic microorganisms have a weak capacity to transfer electrons outside cells. To circumvent this problem, researchers have created a two-species microbial consortium.

This microbial consortium is composed of photosynthetic cyanobacteria and the exoelectrogenic bacteria Shewanella, with the latter inherently possessing strong exoelectrogenic activity. D-lactate was selected as the energy carrier responsible for directed energy transfer between cyanobacteria and Shewanella (Fig. 1).

In this microbial consortium, cyanobacteria capture solar energy and fix CO2 to synthesize D-lactate, while Shewanella produce electricity by oxidizing D-lactate, thus creating a constrained electron flow from photons to D-lactate, then to electricity.

Through genetic manipulation, as well as manipulation of the growth medium and device, the two very different microorganisms are able to work together effectively. This BPV system generates a power density of 150 mW·m-2 in a temporal separation setup, which is approximately one order of magnitude greater than mediator-less BPV devices with conventional configurations.

The researchers further demonstrated that this BPV system can stably operate for more than 40 days at an average power density of 135 mWm-2 in a spatial-temporal separation setup with medium replenishment. This represents the greatest longevity and power output per device of any BPV system reported to date.

AUGUSTA, Ga. (Sept. 20, 2019) - A big way chemotherapy works is by prompting cancer cells to commit suicide, and scientists have found a pathway the most common lung cancer walks to avoid death.

Scientists at the Medical College of Georgia and Georgia Cancer Center at Augusta University have found a first step appears to be lung cancer cells expressing high levels of the molecule TIMP-1, classically considered a tumor inhibitor but at high levels already associated with a poor prognosis for patients.

TIMP-1 then turns up expression of the immune system modulator IL-6, which is already associated with resistance to cancer chemotherapy.

Levels of both increase even further in the face of chemotherapy treatment, a mainstay for treatment of the common, non-small cell lung cancer they studied.

Chemotherapy resistance is a big problem in this lung cancer type, particularly when the cancer recurs at which point it's also more aggressive, says Dr. Mumtaz Rojiani, cancer biologist.

To see just how TIMP-1 contributes, Rojiani and her colleagues first explored whether TIMP-1 enabled cancer cells' uncanny ability to essentially spit out a chemotherapy drug. While they didn't see evidence of that phenomenon in their studies in human lung cancer cells, they did see an increased level of IL-6.

IL-6 is a sugar-coated protein that can turn inflammation both up and down and actually has been shown to regulate TIMP-1 --rather than vice versa -- in some cancers.

But in lung cancer, at least, the scientists saw TIMP-1 take the lead in avoiding cell suicide, a natural process that should happen when cells become dysfunctional.

"At least in lung cancer, we are showing that it is TIMP-1 that is controlling IL-6," says Mumtaz Rojiani, corresponding author of the study in the journal Cancers.

"We have shown for the first time that if TIMP-1 goes up, IL-6 goes up and if TIMP-1 goes down, IL-6 decreases ... and we have shown it in multiple different ways," says Dr. Amyn Rojiani, chair of the MCG Department of Pathology and a study coauthor.

Their work indicates levels of this destructive duo may be an even more valuable indicator of a patient's prognosis as well as an important new target for improving it.

In their studies, they looked at both human non-small cell lung cancer cells and the same cells with TIMP-1 knocked out, then used two frontline chemotherapeutic agents, gemcitabine and cisplatin, and found IL-6 production went down and cell death went up in response to the drugs in the cells with TIMP-1 missing, says Mumtaz Rojiani.

"We gave the two chemotherapy drugs and when we looked at the effect of those drugs we found that TIMP-1 was affecting apoptosis in cell lines and when we knocked it down, we found more apoptosis even in the presence of these drugs," says Mumtaz Rojiani. "So we know TIMP-1 is affecting apoptosis."

When they added TIMP-1, they saw IL-6 go back up and cell survival increase, she says. In fact, when they gave more IL-6, cell death also was reduced, however just adding TIMP-1 also increased IL-6 and using antibodies to neutralize just TIMP-1 also reduced levels of IL-6.

When they looked again at cancer cells that survived, they were even more treatment-resistant than the cells they came from and had higher levels of TIMP-1 and IL-6, Mumtaz Rojiani says.

"You develop chemo-resistant clones that have higher levels than the original cancer cells," says Amyn Rojiani.

To ensure the IL-6 was functional at this higher level, they looked downstream at the IL-6 signaling pathway, which includes STAT3, a regulator of gene activity. STAT3 is known to be involved in controlling cell growth and division, movement and apoptosis, all of which cancer uses. With high levels of IL-6, they watched STAT3 move into the cell nucleus, which means it was also activated.

To see if this tumor-promoting synergy they identified in human lung cancer cell lines also occurred in patients, they turned to the Cancer Genome Atlas database, compiled by the National Cancer Institute, which includes samples and full genome sequencing from patients with a huge variety of outcomes, including chemotherapy resistance and death, says Dr. Wei Xiao, MCG postdoctoral fellow and the study's first author.

They found that patients with non-small cell lung cancer who had both low TIMP-1 and IL-6 had higher survival rates and these two genes were commonly elevated together, Xiao says. Also, just IL-6 being elevated did not affect survival as much as just TIMP-1 being elevated. But they found patient survival was much worse when both were elevated rather than TIMP-1 alone. "The two-gene signature became very important," says Mumtaz Rojiani.

Next steps include examining exactly how STAT3 is helping reduce apoptosis in this scenario. They already are wondering if there is some sort of feedforward mechanism that also means another thing active STAT3 does is activate even more TIMP-1.

They also want to look at other cancers to see if the same chain of events also is set in motion, particularly in those where others have reported it's IL-6 driving TIMP-1. The order definitely matters because it helps define the function of downstream molecules, they say.

Theirs is the first report of this relationship where TIMP-1 affects IL-6, which activates STAT3 in this most common lung cancer type.

Multiple studies have reported that TIMP-1 is significantly elevated in lung cancer cells versus healthy lung cells. Theirs defines a role for elevated TIMP-1 in cancer cells developing resistance to chemotherapy, the scientists say.

Cancer makes heavy-handed use of both MMPs, or matrix metalloproteinases, and their natural inhibitor TIMP-1. MMPs get secreted following injury to degrade adjacent tissue like collagen so a myriad of cells and factors can move in for repair. Particularly near the end of the repair process, levels of TIMP-1 increase to help keep the process from getting out of hand and healthy tissue from also getting destroyed, says Amyn Rojiani.
Cancer takes advantage of MMPs to ensure it can grow at its main site and spread to others.

If we don't have an injury -- or cancer --we likely have very low levels of TIMP-1, the scientists say.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in both men and women, and the non-small cell type accounts for 80-85 percent of lung cancers, according to the American Cancer Society.

The Georgia Cancer Coalition helped fund the research.

To read the full study visit https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6694/11/8/1184.

Once winter nights dip below freezing and the days warm up above freezing sap begins to flow in sugar maples marking the start of the syrup season. U.S. maple syrup production is a global industry, which has been increasing by nearly 10 percent per year over the past decade according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service 2017. With climate change, daily temperatures are on the rise, which affects sap flow and sugar content. By 2100, the maple syrup season in eastern North America may be one month earlier than it was during 1950 and 2017, according to a study published in Forest Ecology and Management.

The study examined six sugar maple stands from Virginia to Québec, Canada, over a six-year period. The sugar maple stands are located in: Divide Ridge in southwest Virginia; Southernmost Maple in central Virginia; Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore in Indiana; Harvard Forest in Massachusetts; Dartmouth Organic Farm in Hanover, New Hampshire; and Chicoutimi in Québec, Canada.

Maple syrup production is impacted by two climate sensitive factors: sugar content, which is determined by the previous year's carbohydrate stores and sap flow, which depends on the freeze/thaw cycle. As a sugar maple tree thaws, the frozen sap begins to move through the tree.

The research team sought to test how monthly and season-long average temperatures during the tapping season, and temperature and precipitation from the preceding year, affect sap flow.

Each day of the tapping season (from January to May) across the study regions, researchers obtained sap samples from 15 to 25 mature sugar maple trees. They measured the volume and weight of the sap and conducted an analysis of the sap's sugar content. Daily temperature readings were also taken. With this data, the team could then look at the annual variability of the sap flow, to see how the data varied from tree to tree and from year to year.

Based on historical climate data, the researchers examined how past changes in minimum and maximum temperatures affected sap flow at each of the sites. They created a model that predicted the timing for optimal sap flow based on historical temperature data pertaining to the freeze-thaw days, actual sap collection from their fieldwork, and monthly climate. To calculate projections on how climate change will affect maple syrup production, the team used climate models based on the RCP 8.5 carbon emissions scenario, which follows current emissions trends.

The study found that most sap collection seasons were 45 days or fewer and that the middle of the sugar maple tapping season tended to fall in March or later for three-quarters of the sites.

According to modeling projections, by the end of the century, the team found that tapping season is projected to be, on average, one month earlier. In addition, it is likely that by 2100, Virginia and Indiana will barely be able to produce any sap while production in Québec will be considerably enhanced. Of the states in the study, New Hampshire and Vermont (not one of the sample sites but for which climate data was analyzed) are likely to be the least affected but will still experience decreases in syrup production. By the end of the century, most of the areas containing sugar maples in the U.S. are projected to see decreases in maple syrup production while areas in northern Ontario and Québec may see moderate to large increases in production. In addition, the concentration of sap sugar is likely to become lower and more variable (28-36% lower across the modeled sites).

"As the climate gets warmer, the sugar maple tapping season will shrink and will get closer to a December date. Maple syrup producers may want to consider adapting their technologies and collection logistics in advance, so that they are prepared for how climate change is going to affect production," said co-author David Lutz, a research assistant professor of environmental studies at Dartmouth.

In the U.S. alone, maple syrup production was valued at $141 million in 2017 according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. As for world share, the Federation of Québec Maple Syrup Producers reported in 2017 that Canada is home to 80 percent of world maple syrup production of which 72 percent is produced in Québec, and 20 percent is produced in the U.S.

The researchers call for additional studies on climate change and maple syrup production, which can help maple syrup producers, forest managers and policymakers prepare for changes that are already impacting a multimillion-dollar industry.

Lutz is available for comment at: david.a.lutz@dartmouth.edu. The study was co-authored by: Joshua M. Rapp at the University of Massachusetts Amherst; Ryan D. Huish at the University of Virginia's College at Wise; Boris Dufour at Université du Québec à Chicoutimi; Selena Ahmed at Montana State University; Toni Lyn Morelli at the U.S. Geological Survey; and Kristina A. Stinson at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

More people die during tornadoes in the Southeast than anywhere else in the United States. And still, a lot of people have misconceptions about their risk of being impacted by tornadoes, according to a new study published in PLOS One by researchers at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville.

"There are many myths about tornado protection. Some of them are very ingrained in our communities and can endanger people," says Kelsey Ellis, a climatology and meteorology professor in the Department of Geography, and coauthor of the study.

For the research, Ellis conducted a phone survey of 800 Tennessee residents. They were asked if and how they received tornado warnings, what actions they take when they get one, and what they know about the likelihood of a tornado happening in their community.

In East Tennessee, 90 percent of people surveyed believe they are somewhat protected by the Great Smoky Mountains.

Furthermore, similar misconceptions were repeated in other parts of the state. In West Tennessee, for example, people reported believing that the Mississippi River would protect them against tornadoes.

"The truth is that scientists don't know yet how hills affect tornadoes. And rivers offer no protection at all," Ellis said.

These misconceptions can cause significant damage to communities that believe they are protected, with many residents choosing to ignore tornado alerts.

"In East Tennessee, particularly, we don't get that many tornado alerts, so we have no reason to ignore them when we do get a warning," Ellis said.

Ellis recommends people take tornado warnings seriously. The rule of thumb is to get inside a sturdy shelter with as many walls separating people from the storm as possible. Those in mobile homes should evacuate immediately after receiving a tornado alert, Ellis said.

Around the globe, communities are concerned with rain and storms. An area known as the "Maritime Continent," which includes major islands such as Sumatra, Java, Borneo, Papua New Guinea, along with a galaxy of smaller islands, experiences significant rainfall including periodic monsoonal rain, and flash flooding.

In a new study led by atmospheric scientist Giuseppe Torri at the University of Hawai'i (UH) at Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), researchers revealed details of the connection between a larger atmospheric phenomenon, termed the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the daily patterns of rainfall in the Maritime Continent.

The MJO circles the globe around the tropics and can affect weather on weekly to monthly time scales, alternately bringing cloudy, rain periods and sunny, drier periods.

Torri and co-authors found that the impact of the MJO on the daily rainfall patterns of Sumatra was quite significant. When the MJO was active near the Maritime Continent, there was more water vapor--and therefore greater potential for significant rain events--and more variations in water vapor throughout the day as compared to the suppressed phase. Also, clouds and rain seemed to move offshore at night faster during the active phase of the MJO. 

The team relied on data from a network of GPS stations that were installed on Sumatra and on the neighboring islands by a team of scientists interested in monitoring tectonic activity along the western coast of Sumatra. As it turns out, the GPS signal is distorted by the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. This distortion is bad news for people interested in location information--which is what the GPS technology was invented for. However, scientists, including UH Mānoa atmospheric sciences professor Steven Businger, realized that the distortion can tell us something about the state of the atmosphere and pioneered its use as a source of data. 

With the extensive coverage of the GPS stations on the island of Sumatra, the team had a dataset that provided a highly detailed picture of the daily atmospheric changes.

"Given the existing scientific literature, we had a sense that the MJO had an impact on the local convection in the Maritime Continent," said Torri. "One thing that was surprising to me was just how well we could see the convection propagate offshore in the late evening. This is thanks to the density of stations of the GPS network we considered."

The MJO is arguably one of the most important phenomena on the planet, and can influence the weather and the climate of regions that are even thousands of miles away from the Maritime Continent. A better understanding of the MJO, and a good way to simulate it are key to better understanding our current and future climate.
 

While the current study furthers understanding of the impacts of the MJO on clouds and rain over Sumatra, Torri will team up with SOEST atmospheric scientist Alison Nugent to investigate the causes of these impacts and the mechanisms that control the offshore propagation of rainfall.
 

NORTHFIELD, Minn. -- If you wander outside on these late summer nights, you might hear the din of calling songs from field crickets. Male crickets produce these songs to attract their mates -- but they may also draw the attention of acoustically orienting parasitiod flies. The fly Ormia ochracea has evolved directionally sensitive ears to eavesdrop on the communication signals of field crickets. Crickets that are parasitized by these flies face almost certain death. How these flies recognize cricket songs and whether crickets can change their love songs to avoid parasitism is unknown.

A new study by Dr. Norman Lee, in collaboration with St. Olaf College students Alexander Kirtley '19, Isaiah Pressman '19, and Karina (Kari) Jirik '20, and University of Toronto collaborators Dean Koucoulas and Dr. Andrew C. Mason, show a novel approach that can be used to study song recognition in O. ochracea. Their work is published as part of a special research topic called "How Enemies Shape Communication Systems: Sensory Strategies of Prey to Avoid Eavesdropping Predators and Parasites" featured in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution.

This approach relies on using a newly developed performance index and a treadmill system to measure how well flies respond to different cricket songs.

"This is an exciting advance because the approach can be broadly applied to better understand the sensory basis of song recognition, signal discrimination, learning and memory, and other auditory perceptual phenomenon in eavesdropping enemies," says Lee, an assistant professor of biology at St. Olaf. "This, in turn, will allow us to evaluate the effectiveness of behavioral strategies and the design of communication signals that prey or hosts may take to mitigate the risk of death."

The Lee Lab Neural Systems and Behavior at St. Olaf College will apply this new approach to unravel how different geographic populations of O. ochracea have evolved to recognize and prefer species-specific cricket songs that mainly differ in the temporal patterning of sound pulses. Temporal pattern recognition is a common sensory processing task shared by many animals that communicate with acoustic signals, including human speech. Studying temporal pattern recognition in O. ochracea may provide insights into general auditory system function involved in signal recognition.

Lee believes that his research into O. ochracea hearing can be harnessed to help improve human hearing by providing engineers with insights into how the natural world has solved common hearing challenges such as recognizing temporally patterned sounds. Engineers have relied on biomimicry to design miniature microphones based on O. ochracea ears, with the hope of applying these microphones to create directional hearing aids.

"Understanding the signal features that auditory systems have evolved to assess to recognize salient sounds may help engineers improve signal processing strategies implemented in hearing aid technology," Lee says.

Two tropical cyclones are very close together near the coast of western Mexico. Hurricane Lorena was moving over the southern tip of Baja California, and Tropical Storm Mario was south of Lorena over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. NASA calculated the rainfall rates happening in both of those tropical cyclones.

NASA has the unique capability of peering under the clouds in storms and measuring the rate in which rain is falling. The Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite passed over the region from its orbit in space and measured rainfall rates in these storms.

GPM passed over the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Sept. 20 at 3:36 a.m. EDT (0736 UTC) and provided rainfall rates in Hurricane Lorena and Tropical Storm Mario, close in proximity. The heaviest rainfall was occurring in the eastern side of Lorena, falling at a rate of over 36 mm (about 1.4 inch) per hour and at a rate of 25 mm (about 1 inch) per hour around the center and band of thunderstorms east of center.

Forecasters at NOAA's National Hurricane Center or NHC incorporate the rainfall data into their forecasts. NHC said that Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding.

GPM also showed rain rates of 25 mm (about 1 inch) per hour around the center of Mario. Microwave imagery has indicated that Mario has been able to maintain its low-level structure, but deep convection was mostly southwest of the cyclone's surface center, although that was outside of the GPM overpass. Both the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA and NASA manage GPM.

Hurricane Lorena Affecting Baja California, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto and for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito.

Compact Hurricane Lorena on Sept. 20, 2019

NASA satellite data has also shown that Lorena is a compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the west at near 2 mph (4 kph), and a turn toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday, Sept. 20. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 kph) with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible today, but weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and then either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 millibars.

On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today, and then gradually move away from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Tropical Storm Mario on Sept. 20, 2019

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.9 degrees north and longitude 110.1 degrees west. That is about 345 miles (555 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.

Mario is moving toward the north-northeast at near 5 mph (7 kph). A sharp turn toward the north and then toward the northwest is expected later today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday; however, confidence in the forecast is low. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 kph) with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 millibars. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA's expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

For updated forecasts, visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite passed over the North Atlantic Ocean and used infrared light to obtain temperature information about Hurricane Jerry's cold cloud tops.

Tropical Storm Jerry strengthened into a hurricane on Sept. 19 by 11 a.m. EDT.

NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite used infrared light to analyze the strength of storms within the structure of Hurricane Jerry. Infrared data provides temperature information, and the strongest thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere have the coldest cloud top temperatures. This data is helpful to forecasters because storms are not uniform around tropical cyclones and it helps pinpoint where the strongest storms are located.

On Sept. 20 at 12:42 a.m. EDT (0442 UTC), the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP found that the strongest thunderstorms circling Jerry's center had cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 70 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 56.6 Celsius). NASA research has shown that cloud top temperatures that cold indicate strong storms have the potential to generate heavy rainfall.

NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that those heavy rains are possible over the Northern Leeward Islands. Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

On Sept. 22, a Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius.

At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 18.5 degrees North and longitude 59.6 degrees West. That puts Jerry's center about 155 miles (245 km) east-northeast of Barbuda. Jerry was moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 kph).   Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 kph) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to continue today, but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently reported a minimum central pressure of 989 millibars.

On the forecast track, NHC forecasters expect the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2019.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA's expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

HOUSTON -- (Sept. 20, 2019) -- Malawi's national adoption of affordable, rugged, neonatal CPAP technology as a part of routine hospital care resulted in sustained improvements in the survival of babies with respiratory illness, according to a new study in the journal Pediatrics.

Malawi, in southeast Africa, has the world's highest preterm birth rate, with almost 1 in 5 babies born premature. A study conducted at 26 Malawi government hospitals found that the national adoption of rugged, low-cost, neonatal "continuous positive airway pressure" (CPAP) devices improved survival rates from 49% to 55% for newborns admitted with breathing problems. For newborns with severe breathing problems, survival improved from 40% to 48%.

"For babies that had respiratory distress syndrome -- these are the tiniest babies that have some of the biggest challenges with breathing -- we saw a nearly a 10% improvement in survival after CPAP was available," said Rice University engineering professor Rebecca Richards-Kortum, the study's corresponding author and co-director of the Rice 360° Institute for Global Health.

The study involved 2,457 babies born at government hospitals from 2013 to 2016 and was conducted by researchers from the Malawi Ministry of Health, Malawi's leading medical school and its teaching hospital, and Rice 360°.

Rice 360° developed the Pumani CPAP machine used in the study and supported the national rollout via a transition-to-scale grant from Saving Lives at Birth, a joint undertaking by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the governments of Norway, the United Kingdom, Canada and South Korea.

Rice 360° co-director Maria Oden said most sub-Saharan hospitals can't afford to bring on extra nurses or technicians, so it was important to monitor patient outcomes and see if CPAP gains were sustained over years as part of routine hospital care.

"The Malawi rollout was a nurse-led, quality improvement initiative that was directed and sustained by the Malawi Ministry of Health," Oden said. "They have shown that a low-income country can scale CPAP nationally and see dramatic and lasting improvements in newborn outcomes."

Lead author Jennifer Carns, a Rice 360° bioengineer and research scientist in Rice's Brown School of Engineering, said the study also found that babies did not get the full benefit of CPAP if they were too cold.

"For infants with normal body temperatures, survival rates were 66% -- more than 25% higher than those who were too cold," Carns said.

While respiratory distress is common among premature babies, so are other conditions like hyperthermia.

"There's more work to be done," Richards-Kortum said. "We know for CPAP to have its full potential, it needs to be introduced as part of a quality program that focuses on improving essential newborn care."

Richards-Kortum is Rice's Malcolm Gillis University Professor and a 2018 State Department U.S. science envoy for health security. Oden is the director of Rice's award-winning Oshman Engineering Design Kitchen. Richards-Kortum and Oden are each bioengineering professors in Rice's Brown School of Engineering and co-founders of NEST360°, an international campaign to end preventable newborn deaths in Africa.

NASA estimated extreme rainfall over eastern Texas from the remnants of Tropical Depression Imelda using a NASA satellite rainfall product that incorporates data from satellites and observations.

NASA's Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM or IMERG, which is a NASA satellite rainfall product, estimated that by Friday morning, September 20, Tropical Storm Imelda had dropped over 24 inches of rain between Beaumont and Houston, Texas. Estimates of between 16 and 24 inches have fallen between Freeport and Beaumont, and 6 inches and more over a large area between southwestern Louisiana and Palacios, Texas. An image showing these rainfall totals was created at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

This near-real time rain estimate comes from the NASA's IMERG, which combines observations from a fleet of satellites, in near-real time, to provide near-global estimates of precipitation every 30 minutes. By combining NASA precipitation estimates with other data sources, we can gain a greater understanding of major storms that affect our planet.

If one compares the IMERG satellite-based rain estimate to that from a National Weather Service ground radar, one sees that IMERG correctly identified the large region of heavy rainfall near Beaumont, but IMERG failed to resolve an extremely narrow band of heavy rainfall along Galveston Island. Such good detection of large rain features in real-time would be impossible if the IMERG merely reported the precipitation observed by the periodic overflights of various agencies' satellites.

Instead, what the IMERG does is "morph" high-quality satellite observations along the direction of the steering winds to deliver information about rain at times and places where such satellite overflights did not occur. Information morphing is particularly important over the majority of the world's surface that lacks ground-radar coverage. Basically, IMERG fills in the blanks between weather observation stations.

The NASA image also identified where the rainfall from the remnant of Imelda caused a U.S. Geological Survey river gauge to swell to "major flood" stage. "Major" flood generally means that nearby homes and roads were flooded.  In addition, there were several preliminary reports of Imelda-spawned tornadoes on Wednesday and Thursday, September 18 and 19.

NOAA's National Weather Service noted on Sept. 20, "Intense tropical rainfall continues in portions of Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana from the remnants of Imelda. These additional rains will only compound ongoing issues with flooding. The heavy rain focus will gradually shift to the Arkansas-Louisiana-Texas region on Friday, Sept. 20."

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA's expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

For more information about NASA's IMERG, visit: https://pmm.nasa.gov/gpm/imerg-global-image

For local forecasts, visit: http://www.weather.gov

In independent studies, two Princeton University research teams recently identified surprisingly large sources of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, being leaked into the atmosphere. Pound for pound, methane causes a far greater warming effect in the atmosphere than does carbon dioxide -- 86-fold more heating over 20 years, and 35-fold more over the course of a century.

In one study, a team headed by Mark Zondlo, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Princeton, looked at an area around western Pennsylvania rich with natural gas wells and found that a small number of these wells are "superemitters" of methane. The other study came from the research group of Denise Mauzerall, a Princeton professor jointly appointed in civil and environmental engineering and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. By equipping fishing boats with sensors and sailing around offshore oil and gas rigs in the North Sea, the researchers found that these facilities leak substantially more methane than previously reported.

Just after these studies were released, the Trump administration announced plans to roll back restrictions on methane emissions.

Here, Mauzerall and Zondlo answer questions about their discoveries and the implications of changing regulations.

What is one thing you wish more people understood about methane?

Denise Mauzerall: Controlling methane emissions is an effective way to slow global warming. Because methane is very effective at trapping heat and has a relatively short lifetime of about a decade before it oxidizes to carbon dioxide, controlling its emissions is an effective way of reducing the heat trapped in the atmosphere now. It thus is very influential in determining how rapidly the planet warms.

Mark Zondlo: There is more methane in the atmosphere from human activities than natural sources. Yes, there are natural sources of methane such as wetlands -- but anthropogenic [human] activities such as agriculture and fossil fuel extraction and processing now dominate methane emissions to the atmosphere.

Stepping back, how should we think about the role of methane in climate change? For example, if we could miraculously eliminate most methane leakage, how big an effect would it have?

MZ: The fastest way to reduce the effects of greenhouse gases significantly is by decreasing methane emissions. If we improve our practices right now and lower methane emissions, it will pay off quickly because the half-life of methane in the atmosphere is about a decade, and it wouldn't take long for the current build up to begin to clear. Methane today accounts for about one-quarter of the greenhouse gas warming, so reducing its emissions can have a significant and fairly quick impact on climate. However, we are still talking decades for emissions from anthropogenic sources to be largely removed from the atmosphere, and this still only addresses one-quarter of the problem. It is an important step, however, that can happen quickly.

DM: Currently about two-thirds of methane emissions come from anthropogenic sources and one-third comes from natural sources. Globally the oil, gas and coal sectors emit about 30% of methane leaked to the atmosphere annually by human activities. About 30% comes from livestock, about 10% comes from landfills, about 10% comes from rice cultivation, 10% from other agricultural sources and 10% from wastewater. The predominant natural source is wetlands, which will increase as Arctic tundra thaws. A major concern is that as the climate warms, emissions from thawing tundra will lead to a feedback loop over which humans have little control. Warming tundra will release more methane, which accelerates warming and drives even more methane release.

What were the chief takeaways from your respective studies?

DM: The key finding from our study was that offshore oil and gas rigs in the North Sea leak more than twice as much methane as they currently report to the British government. When making measurements from fishing boats downwind of the rigs, we found leakage when they were in stand-by mode that was substantially higher than what they report using emission factors for active operations, such as flaring gas and transferring oil.

MZ: The Marcellus Shale basin, which stretches from West Virginia into New York state, is the most productive natural gas basin in the United States, accounting for 32% of all U.S. natural gas production and one of the most important globally. We conducted the most comprehensive measurement campaign in this basin, sampling nearly 18% of the total population of wells. We found that only 10% of the wells contributed to the majority (77%) of the methane emissions. These "superemitting" wells present real opportunities to make large cuts in emissions without having to retrofit every single well pad, which can be costly and time-consuming. In addition, our measurements of basin-scale emissions from well pads were nearly twice as large as EPA estimates. Overall, about 0.5% of the methane produced is leaking to the atmosphere from well pads. This methane can be recovered by finding and fixing these emissions, resulting in environmental and economic benefits.

What are the prospects of fixing these leaks?

DM: Once the location of these leaks is identified, fixing the leaks should be very feasible.

MZ: Now the challenge is to find why the emissions occur, under what conditions, how they change over time and how to fix them. Sometimes these are intentional -- the pressure in local storage tanks builds up and requires venting. Sometimes these are unintentional, in that a valve is stuck open or a flange is leaking. There are an assortment of technologies now available to identify these superemitters, but it will require a dedicated monitoring program on service vehicles. Right now, the existing technologies to identify and find leaks are infrequently deployed and often have limited sensitivity unless they are located pretty close to the leak source.

What do you think about the federal government's recent move to roll back methane regulation?

MZ: It is a step backwards and based upon many false assumptions. The argument has been rationalized by asserting that it is economical to capture and sell these emissions instead of letting them leak into the atmosphere, so companies would do this anyway and regulations are unnecessary. But if a company has a set amount of money for methane reduction or some other projects, it will invest in the one that makes the most profit -- which rarely ever is leak identification and mitigation. There is a long history of corporate denials that leaks of these magnitudes even existed, not only at well pads but also in transmission, storage and distribution sectors. It is refreshing to see some large companies opposing the rollback -- the scientific community in general has made it clear that leaks are happening, and it will take continued partnerships with industry to address the problem.

More generally, we need to get beyond this argument that if something has a natural source, it cannot be classified as a pollutant. There are natural sources of mercury, yet few advocate for mercury emissions. The same holds true for greenhouse gases -- what matters is the human contribution above and beyond the natural levels. We have perturbed this greatly with carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, and we are behind in reducing the emissions. Methane reduction offers a chance to fast-track some initial results.

DM: The federal government's recent move to roll back regulations controlling methane leakage from the oil and gas industry is irresponsible and unjustifiable. Methane has monetary value and selling the methane that leaks offsets the cost of the controls. Much of the oil and gas industry supports the controls and has begun to implement them. Methane is also a precursor for surface ozone, which damages human health, agriculture and ecosystems, and so reducing methane emissions has direct co-benefits for human health and welfare as well as benefitting the climate. Slowing the rate of global warming is crucial and limiting the emissions of gases with high radiative forcing (i.e., high ability to trap heat), like methane, is critical to do that. In order to avoid catastrophic climate warming it will be necessary to decarbonize the global energy system by mid-century. As we move towards that goal, minimizing methane leakage is a necessary intermediate step to reduce the impact of our current natural gas system.

Satellite data has confirmed that Humberto, once a major hurricane is now a post-tropical cyclone. NASA's Terra Satellite provided a visible image of Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto as it continued moving in an easterly direction through the North Atlantic Ocean.

At 11 a.m. EDT on Sept. 19, Humberto was still a powerful hurricane, but the system was in the process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. NASA satellite images indicated that frontal features had formed as indicated by its elongated appearance. Cooler and drier air was also wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation.

On Sept. 19 at 1:30 p.m. EDT, the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Terra satellite provided a visible image of Humberto and it was almost a post-tropical cyclone. The image and other satellite images showed a well-defined cold and warm front, but they did not appear to be fully connected to the center of circulation. The MODIS image indicated Humberto was still producing an area of strong thunderstorms northwest of the exposed low-level center.

By 11 p.m. EDT, satellite images showed little strong thunderstorm development, and it was well to the north of the center of the cyclone. Imagery also showed cold air stratocumulus clouds over the western and southern portions. Those cold clouds are indicative of cold air advection (cold air moving in) that is characteristic of an extratropical cyclone. As a result, Humberto was designated post-tropical and the final advisory on the system was issued by the National Hurricane Center.

A Post-Tropical Storm is a generic term for a former tropical cyclone that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Former tropical cyclones that have become fully extratropical, subtropical, or remnant lows, are three classes of post-tropical cyclones. In any case, they no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. However, post-tropical cyclones can continue carrying heavy rains and high winds.

At 11 p.m. EDT on Sept. 19 (0300 UTC on Sept. 20), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 40.0 degrees north and longitude 58.0 degrees west making the center about 525 nautical miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, Canada. Humberto is moving toward the north-northeast and had maximum sustained winds near 85 knots (98 mph/157 kph).

Humberto is expected to be a large and powerful extratropical cyclone for a couple of days before it is absorbed by another extratropical low-pressure area over the North Atlantic Ocean.

NOAA's National Hurricane Center noted that large swells would continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA's expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.