Tech

The wind is always blowing somewhere, but deciding where to locate a wind farm is a bit more complicated than holding up a wet finger. Now a team of Penn State researchers have a model that can locate the best place for the wind farm and even help with 24-hour predictions of energy output.

"Normally, people planning to build a wind farm will look for good terrain and an average wind speed that is not too strong and not too weak, but consistent," said Guido Cervone, professor of geography, and meteorology and atmospheric science. "We found a more accurate and efficient way to look at wind predictability at specific locations, a key factor when considering building a new wind farm. With fossil fuels and nuclear energy you know exactly how much energy you will have. But wind is not like that."

Location, for general electrical output, is important, but being able to predict how much wind energy the farm will be able to produce 24 hours in the future is also important. Electricity suppliers purchase the energy produced by wind farms and want reliability. Wind farms routinely sell their electrical output to the suppliers, but they would also like to be able to schedule, 24 hours in advance, how much power they will produce.

"Electricity suppliers need to know how much power is available a day ahead," said Cervone, who is also associate director of the Penn State Institute for CyberScience. "They need to have reliable sources because they can't have a blackout. They also do not want to buy more electricity on the spot market because same-day purchases are more expensive."

Cervone and Mehdi Shahriar, recent Penn State doctoral recipient in energy and mineral engineering, used the Analog Ensemble, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, to analyze the errors in wind-farm electrical-production predictions across the country.

AnEn uses a historical set of past observations and predictions spanning at least several months, but preferably two years. It provides a probability model of the forecast, in this case the available wind for power production.

"We observed that locations with higher average wind speed are associated with larger degrees of forecast uncertainty which increases the difficulty to predict wind speed at these locations," the researchers report recently online in Renewable Energy.

Using past forecasts from potential siting locations, wind farm builders could choose locations with perhaps lower average wind speeds, but more consistent and predictable winds.

The researchers' approach does not supply a simple yes-or-no answer to whether there will be wind. The model produces a probability curve for wind production from which companies can make decisions while understanding the risks. If the model says the probability of sufficient wind for electrical production is about 80%, both the wind farm owners and electricity buyers know the risk of winds being insufficient. If the probability is 20%, undoubtedly both would decide that the risk would be too great to rely on the wind farm for electricity.

"If we can predict wind speed, we can predict output and tell how much energy we will produce over a given time," said Cervone.

The model is extremely efficient. Given the current forecast, it searches for a historic forecast that matches and provides the actual wind speeds and durations.

"This model is computationally efficient," said Cervone. "We could run it continuously over a large area with little problem."

As new hurricanes gain strength in the Atlantic, residents of the Bahamas have barely begun recovering from destroyed villages and flooded streets brought by Hurricane Dorian's battering this month. The losses were grim validation of a new Stanford-led study on coastal risk throughout the country.

The study predicts a tripling of storm-related damages if protective ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangrove forests are degraded or lost. The findings, published in Frontiers in Marine Science, are being used by the Bahamian government, development banks and local ommunities to pinpoint key areas where investment in natural ecosystems could support a more storm-resilient future.

"Climate change is forcing coastal nations to reckon with a new reality of disaster management and rethink the business-as-usual development model in order to survive," said Jessica Silver, ecosystem services analyst at Stanford's Natural Capital Project and lead author on the study. "In the Bahamas, the islands hardest hit by Hurricane Dorian - Grand Bahama and Abaco - are those our research identified as the most at risk to coastal hazards in the whole country. Understanding and mapping at-risk areas and their natural assets is a first step in changing development norms."

The integrated approach scientists used in this study could also help other coastal communities plan where to invest in natural habitats to reduce storm damage. A combination of open-source modeling software and cutting-edge environmental analyses with local information can be used to identify where and how people in coastal communities are at greatest risk to climate disasters.

Natural solutions

Silver and other researchers at the Natural Capital Project have been working in the Bahamas for five years alongside government partners, Bahamian scientists, The Nature Conservancy and the Inter-American Development Bank. Together, they have modeled coastal hazards and the role nature plays in reducing risk in the country.

"We need solutions that leverage powerful allies to protect coastal communities now and in the future," Silver said. "In the Bahamas, these allies include the hundreds of kilometers of coastal forests, mangroves, barrier and fringing reef, and seagrasses that envelop the archipelago."

The work is part of a growing body of research showing that natural defenses can, in many places, represent more climate-resilient alternatives to traditional built shoreline protection - like seawalls and jetties - which is expensive to build and maintain.

For example, coral reefs weaken storm surges by taking the energy out of waves. The waves that do make it past the reefs are buffered by mangrove forests and seagrass beds, which also secure sand and sediment to prevent shoreline erosion. By the time a storm reaches homes and streets, the island's environmental barricades have gradually lessened its strength. These natural defenses are also a local source of sustenance and economic security. Healthy coastal habitats support abundant fisheries - a resource especially important in the aftermath of a storm, when food supplies are low. Thriving marine areas help communities regain their financial footing through key industries like tourism and commercial fishing.

Actionable advice

Local decision-makers often lack basic information about where and how to invest in critical risk-reducing ecosystems. So, the research team combined information on storm waves and sea-level rise with maps of coastal habitats and census data to close this information gap. The researchers assessed the risk reduction provided by coral reefs, mangroves and seagrass along the entire coast of the Bahamas using open-source software developed by the Natural Capital Project. They looked at current and projected sea-level rise scenarios to identify the most vulnerable groups of people and where they live.

"Our results show that the population most exposed to coastal hazards would more than double with future sea-level rise and more than triple if ecosystems were lost or degraded," said Katie Arkema, co-author and lead scientist at the Natural Capital Project. "We see that on populated islands like Grand Bahama and Abaco, natural habitats provide protection to disproportionately large numbers of people compared to the rest of the country. Without them, the destruction from Dorian could have been even worse."

The study equips the Bahamian government and supporting development banks with clear, actionable information to guide future investments in natural ecosystems. It shows where nature is providing the greatest benefit to people and can help decision-makers understand where and how targeted conservation and restoration projects could support coastal resilience. In the aftermath of Hurricane Dorian's destruction, the Stanford team has been in close communication with their Bahamian co-authors, who are already using these results to call for strategic investments in nature.

"We hope, in some small way, that the results of this study will help our friends and colleagues build a more resilient future for the Bahamas," Silver said. "And, we hope that other countries will look to the Bahamas as a beacon of progress and fortitude in the face of climate adversity."

Tropical Storm Jerry continued to weaken as warnings were in effect for Bermuda on Sept. 24.  Jerry appeared less organized on visible imagery from NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite because wind shear was taking its toll on the storm.

The shape of the storm is a clue to forecasters that a storm is either strengthening or weakening. If a storm takes on a more rounded shape it is getting more organized and strengthening. Conversely, if it becomes less rounded or elongated, it is a sign the storm is weakening. Jerry is becoming elongated and weakening because of outside winds, known as wind shear.

In general, wind shear is a measure of how the speed and direction of winds change with altitude. Tropical cyclones are like rotating cylinders of winds. Each level needs to be stacked on top each other vertically in order for the storm to maintain strength or intensify. Wind shear occurs when winds at different levels of the atmosphere push against the rotating cylinder of winds, weakening the rotation by pushing it apart at different levels.

There are a couple of factors that are causing Tropical Storm Jerry to weaken. NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that strong vertical wind shear and an intruding dry, stable atmosphere associated with a high amplitude mid- to upper-level area of elongated low pressure moving off of the east coast of the U.S. is finally taking its toll on Jerry.

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP provided a visible image of Jerry on Sept. 24. The VIIRS image showed Jerry's cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate. Strong thunderstorm development is now only occurring on the northern quadrant of the tropical cyclone. The VIIRS image showed that the bulk of clouds and precipitation were being pushed northeast of Jerry's center as a result of wind shear.

On Sept. 24, a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda. At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 30.5 degrees north and longitude 68.9 degrees west. Jerry was 275 miles (440 km) west-southwest of Bermuda and moving toward the north at near 8 mph (13 kph). Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 kph) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 millibars.

Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday, Sept. 25.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA's expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo continued to strengthen and appeared more organized on visible imagery from NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite.

The shape of the storm is a clue to forecasters that a storm is either strengthening or weakening. If a storm takes on a more rounded shape it is getting more organized and strengthening. Conversely, if it becomes less rounded or elongated, it is a sign the storm is weakening.

On Sept. 24, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP provided a visible image of Lorenzo and showed it had become more organized over the previous 24 hours. The VIIRS image showed that many curved bands of thunderstorms have formed around the low-level center and there is a newly formed central dense overcast. A microwave image taken in the overnight hours showed that Lorenzo already had a very small central core.

NOAA's National Hurricane Center or NHC said Lorenzo is located near latitude 12.0 degrees north and longitude 28.0 degrees west. Lorenzo is centered about 301 miles (500 km) southwest of the southwestern most Cabo Verde Islands. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 kph). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 kph) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 millibars.

Conditions seem to be ripe for further intensification because Lorenzo is moving over warm waters, is surrounded by humid mid-level air, and is only dealing with weak to moderate wind shear (outside winds that if strong enough can weaken a storm). Lorenzo is forecast to become a hurricane later today, Sept. 24. NHC forecasters said that Lorenzo could become a major hurricane on Thursday, Sept. 26.

Right now, the UN member states are gathered in New York to discuss how to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. In this connection, a UN appointed panel of international researchers has published a commentary paper in the scientific journal Nature Sustainability. Here, they emphasise how science and research need to play a role in achieving the global goals.

'We argue that the sciences have to contribute collectively to a greater understanding of various systems and how they interact and are interconnected. When talking about solutions within, for example, climate and sustainability, almost everyone thinks of technological solutions. But we need to understand how those technologies interact with other systems', says Professor Katherine Richardson, one of the 15 UN appointed scientists behind the publication and professor at the University of Copenhagen.

The researchers emphasise that solutions to individual global goals may counteract the advancement of other goals. If, for example, food production is expanded in order to achieve the global goal of zero hunger, this may simultaneously work against the global goals of preventing climate change and protecting and preserving life on land. It is such interactions between systems that researchers and universities need to research in a cross-disciplinary manner, Katherine Richardson points out.

Increasing Disproportions

In 2015, the UN member states decided that the Sustainable Development Goals, which consist of 17 SDGs and 169 targets, must be met by 2030. The following year, the UN appointed an international research panel to evaluate the progress in reaching these goals and to identify ways to work with the goals towards 2030.

Last week, the researchers' report was published as a prelude to the UN SDG Global Summit in New York on 24-25 September. And one of the conclusions is that at the global level, it seems difficult to achieve many of the goals.

'Our report shows that timewise, only a handful of the 169 targets are "on track". And the goals that we will probably achieve are about improving conditions for people. When we talk about climate and biodiversity, there is a growing disparity between what we need to do and what is actually being done', says Professor Katherine Richardson.

Need for all branches of science

However, the same research team emphasises in Nature Sustainability that there are many things that can be done to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. If one can break down the silos and the sector thinking in the world of science, scientists will to a far greater extent be able to conduct research that can make a global difference. Centrally at the University of Copenhagen they agree.

'Many people believe that it is first and foremost research within technical and health sciences that together with research within natural and life sciences will help us to achieve the global goals. But we really need social sciences, law, theology and the humanities to help us understand how systems interact globally', says Prorector Bente Stallknecht.

'The University of Copenhagen offers a wide span of programmes and research. Thus, we have a great potential in relation to conducting cross-disciplinary research, which can be especially helpful in achieving the global goals'.

Using genetic sequencing, University of California San Diego School of Medicine researchers have identified a principal cellular player controlling HIV reproduction in immune cells which, when turned off or deleted, eliminates dormant HIV reservoirs.

"This is one of the key switches that the HIV field has been searching for three decades to find," said Tariq Rana, PhD, professor of pediatrics and genetics at UC San Diego School of Medicine. "The most exciting part of this discovery has not been seen before. By genetically modifying a long noncoding RNA, we prevent HIV recurrence in T cells and microglia upon cessation of antiretroviral treatment, suggesting that we have a potential therapeutic target to eradicate HIV and AIDS."

HIV spreads through certain bodily fluid attacking the immune system and preventing the body from fighting off infections. If left untreated, the virus leads to the disease AIDS.

Antiretroviral therapy is used to prevent and treat HIV, allowing patients to live long and healthy lives. However, the medication does not cure patients. Instead, the virus remains inactive in the body. If therapy is discontinued, the virus awakens and multiplies rapidly.

In a study published online on September 24, 2019 in the journal mBio, Rana and colleagues report the first genome-wide expression analysis of long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) in HIV-infected macrophages -- specialized immune cells that promote tissue inflammation, stimulate the immune system and rid the body of foreign debris. In general, lncRNAs do not encode the recipe for proteins the way other RNAs do, but instead help control which genes are turned "on" or "off" in a cell.

The team described how a single lncRNA dubbed HIV-1 Enchanced LncRNA (HEAL) is elevated in people with HIV. HEAL appears to be a recently emerged gene that regulates HIV replication in immune cells, such as macrophages, microglia and T cells.

Using a combination of genomic, biochemical and cellular approaches, they found that silencing HEAL or removing it with CRISPR-Cas9 prevented HIV from recurring when antiretroviral treatment was stopped. Additional research to confirm these effects in animal models will be performed.

"Our results suggest that HEAL plays a critical role in HIV pathogenesis," said Rana. "Further studies are needed to explain the mechanism that leads to HEAL expression after an individual is infected by HIV, but this finding could be exploited as a therapeutic target."

NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite passed over the Arabian Sea in the Northern Indian Ocean and provided forecasters with a view of Cyclone Hikaa's structure. Hikaa is at hurricane strength along Oman's coast.

On Sept. 24 at 5:30 a.m. EDT (0930 UTC), the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP provided a visible image of Cyclone Hikaa. The VIIRS image showed that the storm was close to the eastern coast of Oman and its center was just south of Masirah Island. Hikaa's western quadrant was over the coast bringing gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on Sept. 24, the center of Cyclone Hikaa was located near latitude 19.9 degrees north and longitude 58.4 degrees east. That puts Hikaa's center just 38 nautical miles southwest of Masirah Island. Hikaa was moving to the west and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 knots (86 mph/139 kph) with higher gusts.

Hikaa is approaching landfall in Oman near Duqm. The storm will dissipate inland.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA's expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

NASA's Aqua Satellite provides a variety of data on tropical cyclones including cloud heights and cloud top temperatures. Aqua examined those factors in Tropical Storm Kiko before wind shear began to affect it and weaken the storm.

Tropical cyclones are made up of hundreds of thunderstorms. By analyzing the heights of thunderstorms the their cloud top temperatures, forecasters can tell if a storm is strengthening or weakening. The higher the cloud tops, the stronger the uplift in a storm. That rising air helps thunderstorms develop.  As storms go higher, it is an indication that the storm is strengthening. Conversely, if over a period of time, satellite data shows cloud tops falling and warming, it is an indication the storm is weakening because there's not as strong as an uplift or rising air in the storm.

On Sept. 23, the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite measured clouds heights and temperatures. Imagery showed the initial presence of an eye developing and strong thunderstorms developing around the southern quadrant. The imagery showed the highest cloud tops, higher than 12,000 meters (7.65 miles) were located around the developing eye and mostly south of the center. As the day progressed, high cirrus clouds covered the eye-like feature.

Aqua data also found that cloud top temperatures were as cold as or colder than 200 Kelvin (minus 99.6 degrees Fahrenheit/minus 73.1 degrees Celsius) around in those storms. NASA research has shown that cloud top temperatures that cold have the capability to generate heavy rainfall.

On Sept. 24, strong southwesterly wind shear between 40 and 45 knots caused Kiko's convection and developing thunderstorms to become displaced from the low-level center by about 70 nautical miles. That has weakened the storm. The speed of that wind shear is expected to increase as Kiko moves westward, and that means the storm will weaken.

NOAA's National Hurricane Center or NHC said at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on Sept. 24 the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.9 degrees north and 138.9 degrees west longitude. That puts the center about 1,065 miles (1,715 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii. Kiko is moving toward the northwest at near 10 mph (17 kph), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 kph) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 millibars.

On the forecast track, Kiko will move into the central Pacific basin later in the day on Sept. 24. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kiko is likely to become a tropical depression by tonight.  It should then degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. Sept. 25.

The Aqua satellite cloud height and temperature data was provided by NASA's Worldview product at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

Hey, physicists and materials scientists: You'd better reevaluate your work if you study iridium-based materials - members of the platinum family - when they are ultra-thin.

Iridium "loses its identity" and its electrons act oddly in an ultra-thin film when interfaced with nickel-based layers, which have an unexpectedly strong impact on iridium ions, according to Rutgers University-New Brunswick physicist Jak Chakhalian, senior author of a Rutgers-led study in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The scientists also discovered a new kind of magnetic state when they created super-thin artificial superstructures containing iridium and nickel, and their findings could lead to greater manipulation of quantum materials and deeper understanding of the quantum state for novel electronics.

"It seems nature has several new tricks that will force scientists to reevaluate theories on these special quantum materials because of our work," said Chakhalian, Professor Claud Lovelace Endowed Chair in Experimental Physics in the Department of Physics and Astronomy in the School of Arts and Sciences. "Physics by analogy doesn't work. Our findings call for the careful evaluation and reinterpretation of experiments on 'spin-orbit physics' and magnetism when the interfaces or surfaces of materials with platinum group atoms are involved."

Deep understanding of the phenomenon was achieved thanks to state-of-the-art calculations championed by Rutgers co-authors Michele Kotiuga, a post-doctoral fellow, and Professor Karin Rabe.

The scientists found that at the interface between a layer containing nickel and one with iridium, an unusual form of magnetism emerges that strongly affects the behavior of spin and orbital motion of electrons. The newly discovered behavior is important because quantum materials with very large spin-orbit interaction are popular candidates for novel topological materials and exotic superconductivity.

Their technique combines traditional 'acoustic mapping' with a newer method called 'full waveform inversion'. They found their new method enhanced their view of rocks along a fault line - a break in the Earth's crust - off the east coast of New Zealand's North Island.

The researchers hope that their clearer view of the rocks around these fault lines - whose movements can trigger earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis - will help them better understand why such events happen.

Lead author Melissa Gray, from Imperial College London's Department of Earth Science and Engineering, said: "We can now scan underwater rocks to see their properties in greater detail. Hopefully this will help us to better work out how earthquakes and tsunamis happen."

"Treasure Trove"

Just off the North Island coast of New Zealand, the edge of the Pacific tectonic plate ducks underneath the edge of the Australian plate - an area known as the Hikurangi subduction zone.

Subduction refers to when two plates move against each other, building pressure that eventually triggers one plate suddenly 'slipping' beneath the other. This sudden slipping can cause earthquakes, which in turn trigger tsunamis if they happen underwater.

However, subduction can also cause silent quakes known as 'slow slip' events, which release the same amount of energy as a typical earthquake, but over a much longer amount of time.

Slow slip events often go unnoticed and cause no damage, but the authors of this new report say studying them could constitute a "treasure trove" of information. Melissa said: "Our new way of studying slow slip events could unveil a treasure trove of clues about how larger, more devastating quakes happen."

Ultrasound images of the subduction zone, before (L) and after (middle & R) 2D waveform inversion was used. The 'after' photos show the zone in much finer, higher resolution detail.

Quake quandary

Current rock mapping techniques use sound waves to build pictures of what rocks look like many kilometres below ground, as well as revealing how porous and hard they are and how much fluid and gas they are likely to contain. This information helps scientists assess how rocks might behave when stress builds up, and how much shaking there would be in an earthquake.

Now Melissa, together with Imperial's Dr Rebecca Bell and Professor Joanna Morgan, have plugged current sound wave information into an imaging technique called full waveform inversion.

This method helped them paint a picture of the Hikurangi fault zone in unprecedented detail (fig.1). They also captured the shallow faults which were responsible for the large Gisborne tsunami in 1947 (fig. 3) - an example of a large tsunami caused by a relatively small slow slip earthquake.

The method builds on the concept of 'acoustic mapping', where sound waves are sent from a boat on the ocean surface down to the seabed and kilometres into the Earth's crust. The amount of time taken for the waves to bounce off different rock layers and back up to the boat - as recorded by underwater microphones being towed behind the boat - tells scientists the distance to the seabed and rock layers, as well as the likely composition of the rocks.

The researchers combined data from acoustic mapping with the full waveform inversion technique. This converted the sound waves into higher resolution, more intricately detailed maps of the seabed and rock beneath.

To check their data were accurate, the authors compared their models of the rock properties mapped by inversion with samples collected from drilling by the International Ocean Discovery Program. They found that the models and real data matched, indicating the technique is accurate and reliable, and can provide more information than current drilling methods.

Map showing location of Gisborne city, the site of the tsunami-triggering 1947 earthquakes (red stars), and the Hikurangi subduction zone (black line)

Fig. 3: Locations of Gisborne city on the North Island, the sites of the tsunami-triggering 1947 earthquakes (red stars), and the Hikurangi subduction zone (black line)

The researchers say this combination of techniques could help governments to produce more accurate hazard maps for earthquakes and tsunamis.

Study co-author Dr Bell said: "We can use this to study earthquake and tsunami-prone areas around New Zealand and the rest of the world."

Next, they will work to map the very point at which two edges of tectonic plates touch down to depths of 10-15 kilometres.

Dr Bell added: "Although nobody's seen fault lines like this at such scale before, we still don't know the properties of the Hikurangi plate boundary at the depth where slow slips occur.

"Ultimately, we want to understand why some slips cause devastating earthquakes, while others do not."

MADISON, Wis., Sept. 24, 2019 - In California, the state with more building destruction by wildfire than all of the other states combined, new research by a U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service scientist and University of Wisconsin-Madison partners found something surprising. Over nearly three decades, half of all buildings destroyed by wildfire in California were located in an area that is described as having less of the grasses, bushes and trees that are thought to fuel fire in the wildland-urban interface, or WUI.

The study by H. Anu Kramer with Forest Service scientist Miranda Mockrin and colleagues, "High wildfire damage in interface communities in California," notes that a portion of the WUI defined as "interface" and characterized by having more homes but relatively little wildland vegetation experienced half of the building losses due to wildfire but composed only 2 percent of the total area burned by the wildfires assessed in the study. The study was recently published in the International Journal of Wildland Fire and is available at: https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/58348

California's expansion of housing within and adjacent to wildland vegetation is not unique; the most recent assessment shows that the WUI now includes about one-third of homes in the United States. As wildfire management has become more complex, costly and dangerous, defining what constitutes WUI and defining more specific types of WUI has become more important as local communities strive to apply resources and policy-decisions where they will be most effective in saving lives and property.

The Federal definition of WUI describes two specific areas: "interface" WUI includes developed areas that have sparse or no wildland vegetation, but are within close proximity of a large patch of wildland. "Intermix" WUI, on the other hand, is defined as the area where houses and wildland vegetation directly intermingle. Both are separate from "rural" areas, which may be characterized by agricultural land and low-density housing and development (less than 1 house per 40 acres).

"Our findings show that WUI areas do experience the vast majority of all losses, with 82 percent of all buildings destroyed due to wildfire located in the WUI," Mockrin said. "We were surprised to find 50 percent of all buildings lost to fire being destroyed in the interface portion of the WUI, however. Many risk reduction plans focus on natural vegetation fueling fire, but in the interface WUI where so much of the destruction is occurring, we have to consider finer-grained fuels such as wood piles, propane tanks, and cars."

Study findings suggest that wildfires are still rare in urban areas. The Tubbs fire that struck Santa Rosa, Calif., in 2017 was similar to other California wildfires in that the majority of buildings lost in the fire were located in the WUI; however, the Tubbs Fire was unique in having 25 percent of all destruction occurring in urban areas. In comparison, 4 percent of destruction occurred within urban areas in other California fires. Other recent and highly destructive fires, including the 2018 Carr, Camp and Woolsey fires, included no urban area within their perimeters, exemplifying the rarity of the Tubbs' building destruction in urban areas.

"Although the Tubbs fire was not the norm, it seems like every fall there is a new record-setting fire in California, with three of the five most destructive fires in state history having burned in the last 5 years and the deadliest California fire (the Camp fire) burning last year," Kramer said. "These fires are fueled by the homes themselves, landscaping, and other man-made fuels that are seldom included in the fire models that are used to predict these fires. Our work highlights the importance of studying and mitigating the fuels in these interface WUI areas in California where most of the destruction is occurring."

In addition to solidifying definitions of interface and intermix WUI so communities can address their different attributes in wildland fire planning, researchers suggest that fire behavior models should be revisited.

SILVER SPRING, Md.--Healthcare practitioners and researchers have a new tool to combat obesity in primary care settings, according to a study published in Obesity, the flagship journal of The Obesity Society.

In 2011, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) began covering intensive behavioral therapy (IBT) for obesity when provided to qualified beneficiaries in primary care settings. The benefit provides weekly, brief (15 minute) visits the first month, followed by every-other week visits in months 2-6. Patients who lose 3 kg (6.6 lb) at month 6 are eligible for monthly brief (15 minute) visits in months 7-12 to facilitate weight loss maintenance. This sums to a maximum of 22 possible visits in 1 year.

"CMS's IBT benefit for obesity represents a major advance in recognizing the perils of obesity and the health benefits of moderate weight loss. We hope that CMS's historic decision in covering IBT for obesity will encourage other insurers and employers to do so," writes author Thomas Wadden, Professor of Psychology in Psychiatry at the Perelman School of Medicine, a colleague of co-author Jena Tronieri at the University of Pennsylvania's Center for Weight and Eating Disorders in Philadelphia. Adam Tsai, an obesity medicine physician at Kaiser Permanente Colorado in Denver, and at the University of Colorado, School of Medicine, in Aurora also co-authored the paper.

Wadden and colleagues, however, note that CMS has not provided an evidence-based treatment manual for physicians and other qualified practitioners to use in delivering IBT to patients. CMS now recommends that practitioners follow a 5As approach (i.e., assess, advise, agree, assist, and arrange) in providing weight management, but the efficacy of this approach is not well established.

To fill this gap, Wadden notes that "we are pleased to provide practitioners access to our 21-session treatment manual, which is modeled on the schedule of visits recommended by CMS. Our manual is adapted from the widely used Diabetes Prevention Program. In the first randomized assessment of this brief IBT approach, modeled on the CMS schedule, participants lost a mean of 5.4 percent of initial weight at 6 months, which increased to 6.1 percent at 1 year."

"These are favorable weight losses," noted Tsai. "We hope that our IBT manual will help practitioners in primary care settings achieve comparable results."

In an accompanying commentary, Scott Kahan, MD, FTOS, and Steven Heymsfield, MD, FTOS, applaud the MODEL-IBT program, writing that "Wadden and colleagues offer a gift to struggling HCPs," who traditionally receive little or no education on obesity during medical training. "For those HCPs who crave practical, real-world assistance to better support their patients...the MODEL-IBT curriculum will be a welcome resource."

In their article, the authors also encourage CMS to expand the range of practitioners who can provide IBT to include registered dietitians (RD), health counselors, psychologists, and other allied health professionals. Currently some of these practitioners can deliver services "incident to" CMS-approved providers, who include physicians, nurse practitioners, nurse specialists, and physician assistants.

However, a CMS-approved provider must be physically present at the time a RD or other auxiliary professional delivers care, thus, limiting the opportunity to do so. The authors also call for the coverage of remotely-delivered IBT, where shown to be effective. "We need to find more efficient, less expensive methods of delivering IBT to the millions of Americans who can benefit from it," said Tronieri.

The study, titled " A Protocol to Deliver Intensive Behavioral Therapy (IBT) for Obesity in Primary Settings: The MODEL-IBT Program" will be published online ahead of the October 2019 print issue. The acronym MODEL refers to Managing Obesity with Diet, Exercise, and Liraglutide. The weight loss medication (liraglutide) was added to IBT with one group of patients in the randomized trial described earlier and which was published in Obesity in January 2019.

According to a recent study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, the biological clock influences immune response efficacy. Indeed, CD8 T cells, which are essential to fight infections and cancers, function very differently according to the time of day. The study was carried out by a team of researchers led by Nicolas Cermakian, PhD, of the Douglas Research Centre, and Nathalie Labrecque, PhD, of the Maisonneuve-Rosemont Hospital Research Centre.

We know that circadian rhythms are generated by "clock genes", which influence most organs and cells--including those of the immune system, whose function varies according to the time of day. Accordingly, circadian rhythms are found for various aspects of physiology, including sleep, nutrition, hormonal activity, and body temperature. These daily rhythms help the body adapt to cyclical changes in the environment, such as seasons and the day and night cycle.

In earlier research, the team had demonstrated that T cells react more or less strongly to a foreign body according to the time of day, but the role of the biological clock in this phenomenon remained unknown. "Using a mouse vaccine model, we observed that after vaccination, the strength of the CD8 T cell response varied according to the time of day. Conversely, in mice whose CD8 T cells were deficient for the clock gene, this circadian rhythm was abolished, and response to the vaccine was diminished in the daytime," explains Dr. Cermakian, who is also Professor at the McGill University Department of Psychiatry.

"Our study shows that T cells are more prone to be activated at certain times of the day. Identifying the mechanisms through which the biological clock modulates the T cell response will help us better understand the processes that regulate optimal T cell responses. This knowledge will contribute to improving vaccination strategies and cancer immune therapies," states Nathalie Labrecque, Professor at the Departments of Medicine and Microbiology, Infectious Diseases and Immunology at Université de Montréal.

NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite passed over the Caribbean Sea and used infrared light to obtain temperature information about Karen's cloud tops. Data showed powerful thunderstorms re-developed in around the storm's center as it strengthened back into a tropical storm.

NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite used infrared light to analyze the strength of storms within the structure of what was Tropical Depression Karen. Infrared data provides temperature information, and the strongest thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere have the coldest cloud top temperatures. This data is helpful to forecasters because storms are not uniform around tropical cyclones and it helps pinpoint where the strongest storms are located.

On Sept. 24 at 2:48 a.m. EDT (0648 UTC), the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard the Suomi NPP satellite found that the strongest thunderstorms around Karen's center had cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 80 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 62.2 degrees Celsius) appearing in yellow. Those storms were surrounded by strong storms with cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 70 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 56.6 Celsius).

NASA research has shown that storms with cloud top temperatures as cold as or colder than minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius) have the ability to produce heavy rainfall. Karen has a large area of storms around the center with temperatures colder than that threshold.

At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) those heavy rains were already lashing Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the British Virgin Islands. NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday:  Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are forecast to get from 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals to 8 inches. The Leeward Islands are expected to receive between 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals to 5 inches.

At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.2 degrees north and longitude 65.8 degrees west. That is about 85 miles (120 km) south of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Karen is moving toward the north at near 7 mph (11 kph), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 kph) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1006 millibars.

NHC said that strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. A north-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA's expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) is essential for allowing tendons to adapt to physical activity and grow properly, according to basic science research by investigators at Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS). The findings provide a strong rationale for pursuing clinical trials to explore IGF1 as a new target for treating tendon injuries in humans.

Tendons connect muscles to bone, allowing the body to move. They respond and adapt to the demands of specific activities such as walking, running or playing sports. For example, leg tendons become more spring-like in basketball players, allowing them to jump higher and with more explosive force. Tendon injuries such as Achilles tendon rupture can occur through overuse or repetitive strain and are common among athletes.

"Ruptured tendons can be catastrophic. About 30 percent of athletes with an Achilles tendon rupture are not able to return to play, and those who do return regain about 75 percent of their pre-injury ability," said senior author Christopher Mendias, PhD, ATC, an associate scientist in the Orthopaedic Soft Tissue Research Program at HSS. "There has been a lot of discussion in the NBA and other professional sports leagues about the recent increase in Achilles tendon ruptures and tendon injuries. We are also seeing an increase in tendon ruptures in the general population."

In the basic science study, published September 19, 2019, in The FASEB Journal, the HSS researchers used advanced genetics techniques to remove the IGF1 gene in cells and then monitored tendon growth. They found that without IGF1, tendons were smaller and didn't adapt like they normally would.

Next, the researchers added IGF1 to tendon cells in culture to study precisely how IGF1 affected the cells' growth processes. "Two of the ways that IGF1 affected tendon cells was through increasing cell division and stimulating the synthesis of new proteins.," said first author Nathaniel Disser, BS, a research fellow at HSS. Making new protein, such as collagen, is an important process the body uses to form tendons and other connective tissues.

In humans, growth hormone drives childhood growth and helps preserve tissues throughout adult life by maintaining adequate IGF1 levels. Human growth hormone (somatropin) is already available by prescription for treating children with growth failure due to growth hormone deficiency or adults with growth hormone deficiency. There is also another available drug called mecasermin (Increlex), which is a form of IGF1. It is used to treat children with a severe growth hormone deficiency, such as the absence of a gene to produce growth hormone.

"Overall, our study has identified that IGF1 plays an essential role in tendon growth and paves the way for future research to test whether targeting IGF1 is useful for treating painful and debilitating tendon injuries," Dr. Mendias said. "Clinical trials are required before drawing conclusions about the ability of human growth hormone to repair tendon injuries better than is possible today."

Dr. Mendias and colleagues are also currently completing a clinical trial testing the ability of human growth hormone to increase IGF1 levels to see whether that may prevent muscle atrophy in people recovering from anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears.