Tech

Vessel noise present year-round at Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary

image: Staff from Oregon State University and national marine sanctuaries recover an acoustic mooring that had been recording sound for two years in the area of Cordell Bank and Greater Farallones national marine sanctuaries.

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J. Stock/Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary

NEWPORT, Ore. - The environment in the Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary off the coast of San Francisco is not a refuge from the noise generated by ship traffic, the first underwater marine acoustic study of the region has shown.

Vessel and other human sound is not currently regulated in Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary, but sanctuary officials are trying to learn more about its impact on animals as part of efforts to evaluate and improve the management of the ecosystem.

Noise from human activity such as vessel traffic or offshore drilling can have an impact on the health of marine animals. For example, whales rely on sound to forage, communicate, navigate and avoid predators - processes that can be hindered by human-made noise.

"Noise levels we measured at some frequencies in the sanctuary were higher than those modeled for the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary near the Port of Los Angeles, which is considered the largest port in U.S. waters," said Samara Haver, a doctoral candidate in the College of Agricultural Sciences at Oregon State University and the study's lead author.

"That says a lot about the vessel activity going on around and in the Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary and how it is affecting the immediate environments."

The sanctuary's small size, close proximity to dense shipping lanes and exposure to deep-ocean areas where sound may travel farther could contribute to the sound environment, researchers said. The national marine sanctuary system has identified ocean noise as a priority issue.

Findings from the sound study were published recently in the Journal of the Acoustical Society of America. Co-authors include Robert Dziak, an acoustics scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who holds a courtesy appointment in OSU's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences and other researchers from OSU, NOAA, the National Park Service, Point Blue Conservation Science, Stanford University and the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.

Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary is located off the coast of northern California, with its southern-most boundary about 42 miles north of San Francisco. The sanctuary encompasses nearly 1,300 square miles. It is an extremely productive marine area centered on Cordell Bank, a rocky undersea feature several miles long and wide that sits at the edge of the continental shelf.

Cordell Bank is one of five national marine sanctuaries in the Pacific along the West Coast of the United States and one of three off the northern California coast near San Francisco.

Sanctuary regulations are designed to protect the integrity of the ecosystem. Ships are permitted to transit through the sanctuary but disturbing the seafloor and discharging material into the sanctuary are generally prohibited. Most large ships travel within what's known as a "traffic separation scheme" - a highly-regulated shipping route system. Cordell Bank and the nearby Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary also request voluntary shipping slowdowns from May 1 to Nov. 15 to protect aggregations of whales.

"One of the sanctuary's primary needs is to document the soundscape and to begin to understand how animals in the sanctuary may be affected by human-made sounds," said Danielle Lipski, research coordinator at Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary. "This is an innovative way for us to learn new information about whales in the sanctuary using methods that complement the visual survey work we do."

In October 2015, researchers deployed a long-term continuous underwater acoustic monitor in the sanctuary and recorded ambient sound for two years. Passive acoustic sound monitoring offers a low-impact, cost effective way to monitor the health of the marine environment and the effectiveness of marine conservation efforts.

"This initial study helps us establish a baseline to start understanding what is going on in that environment," said Haver, who studies marine acoustics and works out of the Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, a partnership between OSU and NOAA at Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport.

Among the researchers' findings:

Sound levels fluctuated by month, with the highest levels in the fall and lowest levels in the summer.

Both vessel traffic and whales contribute substantially to the ambient sound environment, with vessels present consistently year-round and whale vocalizations showing seasonal peaks.

Acoustic data showed the presence of humpback, blue and fin whales even when they were not observed visually in the region.

Understanding patterns of whale presence in the sanctuary environment is helpful for sanctuary managers. Data collected from the acoustic study can be used to inform management efforts such as speed reduction programs during peak periods for whales that could reduce ship strikes and whale entanglements, Haver said.

"When whales or other marine species are not surfacing, we cannot see them," Haver said, "Acoustic monitoring gives us a way to track their movements when otherwise it would be impossible. We can supplement and verify visual data and that gathered through whale tagging."

Haver also compared the sound levels at Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary to past research that modeled noise levels in the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary, which is near the Port of Los Angeles and high-traffic West Coast shipping lanes and found Cordell Bank to be noisier at some frequencies. Researchers also have measured noise levels in Channel Islands and other sanctuaries and plan to do additional noise comparisons in future work.

Scientists also are continuing to monitor sound in Cordell Bank and in the future will be able to compare data from different time periods to see what changes may be occurring in the marine environment. Researchers in the future hope to analyze changes in the marine environment as the COVID-19 pandemic set in and ship traffic was reduced, Dziak said.

Additionally, the initial monitoring only captured low-frequency sound; recording higher frequency sound in the future would likely capture vocalizations of other whale species and may give scientists additional insight into the marine acoustic environment of the region. Acoustic monitoring is also underway at other sanctuaries including Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary off the coast of California; Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary off the coast of Washington; and Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary off the coast of Massachusetts.

Credit: 
Oregon State University

Coming soon to a circuit near you

image: Illustration of Porath's experiment showing a DNA molecule, through which an electric current is flowing, that is bound by two nanoparticles (orange circles) to the electrodes (yellow).

Image: 
Hebrew University

We know that DNA molecules express heredity through genetic information. However, in the past few years, scientists have discovered that DNA can conduct electrical currents. This makes it an interesting candidate for roles that nature did not intend for this molecule, such as smaller, faster and cheaper electric circuits in electronic devices, and to detect the early stages of diseases like cancer and COVID-19.

In a recent study published in Nature Nanotechnology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HU)'s Professor Danny Porath and his team at HU's Institute of Chemistry and the Center for Nanoscience and Nanotechnology, helped move the needle closer to such applications by demonstrating a highly-reliable method to measure electric currents that pass through a DNA molecule. They were able to locate and identify individual molecules between the electrodes and to measure significant electric currents in individual DNA molecules. Their most surprising finding was that the current passes through the DNA backbone, contrary to prior assumptions in the scientific community that the current flowed along DNA base-pairs. "Our method's high degree of reliability, experimental reproducibility and stability allows for a wide range of experiments, in which researchers may learn about the conduction properties of DNA and bring the field closer to creating DNA-based medical detectors and electronic circuits," shared Porath.

Team-member HU PhD student Roman Zhuravel pulled his weight, overcoming long-held technical difficulties to develop a technique that could reliably attach a single DNA molecule to electric contacts. To verify that most of the current passes through the backbone, he created discontinuities in the backbone itself--on both sides of the double-helix--and saw that, in this case. there was no current.

For Porath, these findings are a career highlight, "we were able to debunk a twenty-year-old paradigm. While many technical hurdles still need to be worked out, we've taken a big step forward toward the holy grail of building a DNA-based electronic circuit."

Credit: 
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Redefining drought in the US corn belt

image: University of Illinois scientists find a greater-than-expected contribution of atmospheric dryness in crop-relevant drought, prompting them to urge redefinition of drought for agriculture.

Image: 
Hyungsuk Kimm, University of Illinois

URBANA, Ill. - As the climate trends warmer and drier, global food security increasingly hinges on crops' ability to withstand drought. But are scientists and producers focusing on the right metric when measuring crop-relevant drought? Not exactly, according to new research from University of Illinois scientists, who urge the scientific community to redefine the term.

"Plants have to balance water supply and demand. Both are extremely critical, but people overlook the demand side of the equation, especially in the U.S. Corn Belt," says Kaiyu Guan, principal investigator on two new studies, Blue Waters professor in the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences and the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at Illinois.

The demand Guan refers to is atmospheric dryness, often expressed as vapor pressure deficit (VPD). The drier the air, the more moisture is sucked out of pores, or stomata, in plant leaves. Plants have to open stomata to take in carbon dioxide as their food, but if they sense the atmosphere is too dry, they'll close pores to avoid drying out. Keeping stomata closed too long leads to reductions in photosynthesis, plant growth, and grain yield.

The kicker? Plants shut down stomata due to atmospheric dryness even when there's an adequate supply of moisture in the soil.

"If you only consider rainfall and soil moisture, which is how most people think about drought, that's mostly describing the supply side. Of course if you have low soil moisture, plants will be stressed by how much water they get. But the supply is often pretty sufficient, especially here in the U.S. Corn Belt," Guan says. "However, the demand side from the atmosphere can also severely stress plants. We need to pay more attention to that drought signal."

Guan's two recent studies used multiple technological approaches, including field measurements, various sources of satellite data, hydrological model simulations, and government crop yield statistics. The first study, published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, used data from seven sites across the Corn Belt to conclude VPD accounts for nearly 90% of the changes in crop stomatal conductance, a proxy for drought stress, and approximately 85% of changes in gross primary productivity, a measure of productivity.

"By comparison, soil moisture typically accounts for 6-13% of these measures for corn and soybean, and up to 35% when considering time lag effects," says Hyungsuk Kimm, doctoral student in Guan's group and the study's lead author.

In the other study, published in the Journal of Hydrology, Guan's team focused on grain yield. Yield depends on many factors related to water cycles, but the researchers found that VPD explains the biggest proportion of variability in crop yield and also provides the earliest warning for yield loss when comparing with other water cycle metrics and traditional drought indices.

"This led us to build a new drought index integrating VPD, soil moisture, and measures of evapotranspiration, which can account for more than 70% of yield variation. Our index outperforms all the existing drought indices," says Wang Zhou, postdoctoral researcher in Guan's group and the study's lead author.

Guan adds, "In these two studies, we tried to understand the demand side of drought from two major angles, one using eddy covariance data which measures landscape water and carbon use very accurately - the gold standard - and the other leveraging satellite data and model-simulated hydrological variables correlated with regional yield," Guan says. "In both, we demonstrate VPD is more important than soil moisture to explain the crop drought response in the U.S. Midwest."

Adjusting the drought concept for crops will be critical for global food security under a changing climate.

"When we look at climate change scenarios, the amount of rainfall is not changing much for the Corn Belt, but we for sure know temperature and VPD will increase here. That means not much will change on the supply side, but demand stress will increase significantly. And that type of stress is so connected to end-of-season crop yield," Guan says.

His group is working on follow-up studies evaluating the role of irrigation in increasing supply and decreasing demand, but for now, Guan says breeding for improved water-use-efficiency could be an important part of the solution.

Credit: 
University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences

NASA's infrared view of typhoon Kujira

image: On Sept. 29 at 7:40 a.m. EDT (1140 UTC), the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite gathered temperature information about Typhoon Kujira's cloud tops. MODIS found the most powerful thunderstorms (red) were wrapping around the eye where temperatures were as cold as or colder than minus 70 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 56.6 Celsius).

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NASA/NRL

NASA's Terra satellite used infrared light to identify strongest storms and coldest cloud top temperatures in Typhoon Kujira as it tracked through the northwestern Pacific Ocean.

Infrared Data Reveals Most Powerful Storms

Infrared data provides temperature information about the cloud tops of the many thunderstorms that make up a tropical cyclone. The strongest thunderstorms reach high into the atmosphere and have the coldest cloud top temperatures. Tropical cyclones do not always have uniform strength, so infrared data helps forecasters know the location of the strongest side of a storm.

On Sept. 29 at 7:40 a.m. EDT (1140 UTC), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite gathered temperature information about Typhoon Kujira's cloud tops. MODIS found the most powerful thunderstorms had temperatures that were as cold as or colder than minus 70 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 56.6 Celsius). Those strongest storms were found wrapping around the eye. In addition, a large band of fragmented thunderstorms east of the center contained storms with those temperatures.

Cloud top temperatures that cold indicate strong storms with the potential to generate heavy rainfall.

Typhoon Kujira's Status on Sept. 29

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on Sept. 29, Typhoon Kujira's maximum sustained winds were near 65 knots (75 mph/120 kph), making it a Category One hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Kujira was far from land areas, centered near latitude 36.5 degrees north and longitude 156.4 degrees east, about 814 nautical miles east of Yokosuka, Japan. Kujira was moving to the north-northeast. It is no threat to land areas.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii noted that Kujira is forecast to become extra-tropical later in the day on Sept. 29. It is then expected to begin a weakening trend.

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NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

New NH poll: Biden leads Trump in run for president

Former Vice President Joe Biden has an eight-point lead over President Donald Trump among likely New Hampshire voters, according to a new poll released today by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion.

New Hampshire, which has four electoral votes on the line, has emerged as a swing state that was hotly contested in the 2016 presidential election. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by fewer than 3,000 votes, a margin of less than half a percent.

The independent, nonpartisan poll released today found that Biden leads with 52 percent of likely New Hampshire voters, followed by Trump at 44 percent and 3 percent for third-party candidates. Only 1 percent of voters say they are undecided. In an October 2016 poll by the Center for Public Opinion, 14 percent of likely voters planned to cast ballots for third-party candidates while Hillary Clinton had a six-point lead over Trump.

"At this point in 2016, there were nearly five times as many third party or undecided voters, which indicated an unstable race. This year is very different. Voters' minds are made up and they have been for a while. That's the sort of thing that happens when the race becomes a focused referendum on the incumbent," said Joshua Dyck, director of the Center for Public Opinion and an associate professor of political science.

Today's poll found that Biden is leading among 95 percent of likely voters who identify themselves as Democrats and Trump is leading among 90 percent of those who identify as Republicans. Biden leads with 50 percent of independents and Trump trails with 35 percent. More on which voters are supporting which candidates based on gender, education and more is available at http://www.uml.edu/polls.

The poll found that 55 percent of likely voters disapprove of Trump and 46 percent of that group strongly disapprove of how Trump is handling the job of president. Among Democrats, that disapproval increases to 96 percent. Sixty-two percent of independents and 10 percent of Republicans polled say they disapprove of his job performance.

The survey asked whether the next Supreme Court justice should be appointed by the current president or the winner of the 2020 election. Fifty-eight percent of likely New Hampshire voters said the 2020 winner should appoint the replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, compared to 42 percent who said the current president.

Asked which candidate and their allies are cheating to win the election, less than half said Biden and his allies (41 percent), compared to 56 percent who said Trump and his allies have been cheating. Seventy-four percent of Democrats say Trump and his allies are cheating "a great deal" compared to 46 percent of Republicans who said Biden and his allies are "cheating a great deal."

"These numbers point to serious questions of electoral legitimacy, particularly if the election happens to be close," said Dyck.

In the races for U.S. Senate and governor in New Hampshire, incumbents Jeanne Shaheen and Chris Sununu are leading their challengers by double-digits.

Shaheen leads Republican Corky Messner among likely voters by 19 points, 56 percent to 37 percent, with 6 percent still undecided and 1 percent saying they will vote for another candidate. Ninety-six percent of Democrats support Shaheen, along with 52 percent of independents and 17 percent of Republicans.

Sununu leads Democrat Dan Feltes by 26 points, 60 percent to 34 percent, with 6 percent undecided and 1 percent saying they will vote for another candidate. Sununu has the support of 92 percent of Republicans as well as 70 percent of independents and 27 percent of Democrats.

The poll of likely New Hampshire voters also found:

A majority (54 percent) think it's not safe to re-open local public schools for face-to-face instruction (21 percent say definitely not safe, 33 percent say probably not safe, 30 percent say probably safe, 16 percent say definitely safe).

Asked who they think will win the 2020 presidential election, 45 percent said Biden will win and 40 percent said Trump will win.

More than two-thirds (68 percent) said the country is on the wrong track, compared to 32 percent who said the country is headed in the right direction.

The New Hampshire Secretary of State announced a COVID-19 exception to absentee ballot laws earlier this year, which allows concerns about COVID-19 as a valid excuse for requesting an absentee ballot in the state. Among likely voters, 31 percent say they plan to vote by mail, while 69 percent plan to vote in person.

The nonpartisan poll of 657 likely New Hampshire voters was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell, which has more than 13,000 students, alumni and employees from the Granite State. The Center for Public Opinion presents events and polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research.

The survey was designed and analyzed by the Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov from Sept. 17 through Sept. 25. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent. Detailed poll results - including topline and full methodology - are available at http://www.uml.edu/polls.

In addition to the survey of likely voters in New Hampshire, the Center for Public Opinion also released polls in two other states today. The findings include:

In North Carolina, Trump and Biden are tied with 47 percent support of likely voters. In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham leads Republican incumbent Thom Tillis 49 percent to 43 percent. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican challenger Dan Forest 54 percent to 41 percent. (Poll of 921 likely North Carolina voters conducted Sept. 18 through Sept. 25 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.)

In Texas, Trump has an apparent lead of 3 points over Biden, 49 percent to 46 percent of likely voters. In the race for U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent John Cornyn is up 50 percent to 40 percent over Democratic challenger MJ Hegar. (Poll of 882 likely Texas voters conducted Sept. 18 through Sept. 25 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.)

Credit: 
University of Massachusetts Lowell

New NC poll: Biden and Trump tied

President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are deadlocked in the race for North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, according to a new poll released today.

The independent, nonpartisan poll by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion found that Trump and Biden are tied with 47 percent each of likely voters' support, with minor party candidates at 3 percent and 2 percent of North Carolina likely voters undecided.

White voters in North Carolina support Trump, 57 percent to 39 percent while Black voters overwhelmingly support Biden, 75 percent to 16 percent. More on voters' support by gender, age, party and education is available at http://www.uml.edu/polls.

Trump's approval rating reflects the divided nature of the North Carolina electorate: 49 percent approve of the job he is doing as president and 51 percent disapprove. Among those who approve, 33 percent strongly approve and 16 percent somewhat approve. Forty-two percent of voters who disapprove of Trump's job performance said they strongly disapprove. Ninety-four percent of Democrats polled disapprove of President Trump's job performance, including 82 percent who strongly disapprove. Among independents, 58 percent disapprove of his job performance, including 39 percent who strongly disapprove. Among Republicans, only 9 percent disapprove, 64 percent strongly approve and 28 percent somewhat approve of the job he is doing.

Asked about their opinions on whether either candidate and their allies are trying to cheat to win the election, fewer than half of North Carolina likely voters said that Biden and his allies have been cheating "a great deal" (27 percent) or "somewhat" (20 percent), while more than half said that Trump and his allies have been cheating, either "a great deal" (36 percent) or "somewhat" (17 percent). The perception of partisan cheating by Trump among Democrats is exceptionally high: 69 percent of Democrats think Trump and his allies are cheating "a great deal," compared to 50 percent of Republicans who think Biden and his allies are cheating "a great deal," which could raise questions about the legitimacy of the election as election results start coming in on Nov. 3.

The poll also found that 53 percent of North Carolina likely voters feel that the winner of the 2020 presidential election should be the one to appoint a new Supreme Court justice to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Forty-seven percent said that the sitting president should appoint her successor.

In the race for North Carolina's U.S. Senate seat, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham is leading Republican incumbent Thom Tillis by six points, 49 percent to 43 percent, with 7 percent of likely voters undecided and 1 percent planning to vote for a different candidate. This race is in the national spotlight as a possible flip for Democrats, who are seeking four seats to gain control of the Senate. In addition to leading overall and among Democrats, Cunningham is leading among independents 41 percent to 36 percent and has the support of 11 percent of Republican-identifying voters.

"North Carolina's trend toward Republicans seems to be slowing in 2020. With the presidential race tied and Cal Cunningham leading the Senate race, North Carolina voters are worried about the safety of their schools and see the Supreme Court nomination as a distraction. North Carolina voters are taking out their frustration on Sen. Thom Tillis. The message to Tillis seems to be, 'Why move so fast in response to one death and so slow in response to over 200,000?'" said John Cluverius, associate director of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and assistant professor of political science.

In the run for governor, incumbent Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper leads his Republican challenger Dan Forest 54 percent to 41 percent. Cooper's support includes ideologically moderate voters, who make up nearly a third (32 percent) of North Carolina's electorate. Cooper is ahead with liberals, 93 percent to 4 percent while Forest leads among conservatives, 74 percent to 21 percent.

The poll also found the following among likely North Carolina voters:

A majority (57 percent) think it's not safe to re-open local public schools for face-to-face instruction (30 percent say definitely not safe, 27 percent say probably not safe, 28 percent say probably safe, 16 percent say definitely safe).

Asked who they think will win the 2020 presidential election, 47 percent said Trump and 37 percent said Biden.

Sixty-six percent said they think the country is on the wrong track while 34 percent said the country is headed in the right direction.

North Carolina is a no-fault absentee balloting state that also has an extensive in-person early voting program. Among likely voters, 28 percent say they plan to vote by mail, 43 percent say they plan to vote early in person, while 29 percent plan to vote in person on Nov. 3.

North Carolina is one of a handful of states where voting has already started. Among likely voters, 8 percent said they had already voted. Biden leads Trump among those who said they have already voted, 77 percent to 21 percent. Biden also leads Trump (72 percent to 23 percent) among those who plan to vote by mail, the candidates are tied at 49 percent among those who plan to vote early and Trump leads Biden 68 percent to 23 percent among those who plan to vote on Election Day.

Detailed poll results - including analysis and methodology - are available at http://www.uml.edu/polls. The nonpartisan poll is independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell's Center for Public Opinion, which conducts public-opinion polling at the state and national levels. The nationally recognized center uses the latest technology and highest standards in its surveys and is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research's Transparency Initiative. The center's events and polls on political and social issues provide unique opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and research.

The poll of 921 likely North Carolina voters was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell, which has more than 1,000 students and alumni who hail from the Tar Heel State. The survey was designed and analyzed by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov from Sept. 18 through Sept. 25. It has an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent. Full poll methodology is available at http://www.uml.edu/polls.

In addition to the survey of likely voters in North Carolina, the Center for Public Opinion also released polls in two other Super Tuesday states. The findings include:

In New Hampshire, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by eight points, 52 percent to 44 percent. In the races for U.S. senator and governor, both incumbents lead by double digits. U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads Republican challenger Corky Messner 56 percent to 37 percent. Gov. Chris Sununu leads Democratic challenger Dan Feltes 60 percent to 34 percent. (Poll of 657 likely New Hampshire voters conducted Sept. 17 through Sept. 25 with an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent.)

In Texas, Trump has an apparent lead of 3 points over Biden, 49 percent to 46 percent of likely voters. In the race for U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent John Cornyn is up 50 percent to 40 percent over Democratic challenger MJ Hegar. (Poll of 882 likely Texas voters conducted Sept. 18 through Sept. 25 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.)

Credit: 
University of Massachusetts Lowell

New Texas poll: Trump up in close race

President Donald Trump has an apparent lead over former Vice President Joe Biden in a close contest for Texas' 38 electoral votes according to a new poll of likely voters in the state released today.

Trump has the support of 49 percent of Texas likely voters, Biden is at 46 percent, other candidates on the ballot are at 4 percent and 1 percent are undecided. The poll of 882 likely voters carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

While male poll respondents are more likely to vote for Trump (52 percent Trump, 42 percent Biden), Trump is polling nearly even with Biden among women in Texas (49 percent Biden, 47 percent Trump); Biden likely needs to widen the gender gap in order to carry the state.
More on voters' support by party, age and education is available at http://www.uml.edu/polls.

While Trump is slightly ahead of Biden with likely voters, 50 percent say they approve and 49 percent disapprove of the president. Among those who approve, 37 percent do so strongly and 13 percent somewhat. Among Trump disapprovers, 40 percent strongly disapprove of the way he is handling his job as president. Among Democrats, 95 percent disapprove of Trump's job performance, including 83 percent who strongly disapprove. Among independents, 60 percent disapprove of his job performance, including 39 percent who strongly disapprove. Among the 92 percent of Republicans who approve of Trump's job performance, 69 percent strongly approve.

"Trump is hanging onto a lead in Texas, but Republicans shouldn't be celebrating. Once a stronghold, statewide races continue to tighten and a loss in Texas would not only guarantee a Biden presidency, it would signal a landslide. The fact that Biden is keeping it close is cold comfort," said Joshua Dyck, director of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and associate professor of political science.

Asked about their opinions on whether either candidate and their allies are trying to cheat to win the election, slightly less than half of Texas likely voters say that Biden and his allies have been cheating "a great deal" (32 percent) or "somewhat" (16 percent), while half say that Trump and his allies have been cheating "a great deal" (36 percent) or "somewhat" (14 percent). As expected, these numbers break down by party identification, but the perception of partisan cheating by Trump among Democrats is higher: 72 percent of Democrats think Trump and his allies are cheating "a great deal," and 57 percent of Republicans think Biden and his allies are cheating "a great deal."

In the closely watched U.S. Senate race in Texas, Republican incumbent John Cornyn leads Democratic challenger MJ Hegar 50 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent saying they will vote for another candidate and 9 percent undecided.

While Cornyn leads by a comfortable margin, his lead also does not necessarily project strength, rather that he is running against a relatively unknown challenger. Cornyn is leading among Republicans 91 percent to Hegar's 3 percent, while Hegar leads among Democrats 83 percent to 7 percent. However, Hegar also leads among independents by 9 points, 44 percent to 35 percent. Notably, 10 percent of Democrats and 11 percent of independents remain undecided, compared to only 6 percent of Republicans.

As a challenger, Hegar's relative anonymity among Texas voters shows up in her favorables. She has a net favorability rating of +13 (35 percent to 22 percent), but a large number of Texas voters either have no opinion of her (26 percent) or have never heard of her (17 percent). Cornyn, by contrast, is not a particularly popular incumbent. His favorability rating is net neutral (38 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable), while 19 percent of likely voters have no opinion of the senator and 5 percent have never heard of him.

Poll respondents were also asked whether the next Supreme Court justice - the replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg - should be appointed by the current president or by the winner of the 2020 presidential election. Here, we see a majority, 54 percent, of Texas likely voters say that the winner of the presidential election should appoint Ginsburg's successor to the high court, while 46 percent say that the sitting president should appoint her successor.

The poll also found the following among likely Texas voters:

Gov. Greg Abbott has an approval rating of 55 percent (28 percent strongly approve, 27 percent somewhat approve).

Texas voters are split on whether it is safe to re-open local public schools. A slim majority (51 percent) of Texas likely voters think it's not safe to re-open local public schools for face-to-face instruction (26 percent say definitely not safe, 25 percent say probably not safe, 28 percent say probably safe, 21 percent say definitely safe).

Asked who they think will win the 2020 presidential election, Texas likely voters give Trump the edge: 49 percent say Trump will win and 37 percent say Biden will win.

Sixty-three percent of likely voters say the country has gotten off on the wrong track while 37 percent think things in the country are headed in the right direction.

Texas provides absentee ballots only to those voters who are unable to vote in person (i.e. they must provide a valid excuse). All other voters are expected to vote in person, but Texas does offer early voting between Oct. 13 and Oct. 30. Among likely voters, 15 percent say they plan to vote by mail, 64 percent say they plan to vote early, in person, while 22 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day. Among those who intend to vote by mail, Biden leads 69 percent to 25 percent, among intended early voters Trump leads 50 percent to 46 percent and among Election Day voters Trump leads 66 percent to 29 percent.

Detailed poll results - including topline and methodology - are available at http://www.uml.edu/polls. The nonpartisan poll is independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell's Center for Public Opinion, which conducts public-opinion polling at the state and national levels. The nationally recognized center uses the latest technology and highest standards in its surveys and is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research's Transparency Initiative. The center's events and polls on political and social issues provide unique opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and research.

The poll of 882 likely Texas voters was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell, which has more than 1,000 students and alumni who hail from the Lone Star State. The survey was designed and analyzed by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov from Sept. 18 through Sept. 25. It has an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent. Full poll methodology is available at http://www.uml.edu/polls.

In addition to the survey of likely voters in Texas, the Center for Public Opinion also released polls in two other states today. The findings include:

In New Hampshire, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by eight points, 52 percent to 44 percent. In the races for U.S. senator and governor, both incumbents lead by double digits. U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads Republican challenger Corky Messner 56 percent to 37 percent. Gov. Chris Sununu leads Democratic challenger Dan Feltes 60 percent to 34 percent. (Poll of 657 likely New Hampshire voters conducted Sept. 17 through Sept. 25 with an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent.)

In North Carolina, Trump and Biden are tied with 47 percent support of likely voters. In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham leads Republican incumbent Thom Tillis 49 percent to 43 percent. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican challenger Dan Forest 54 percent to 41 percent. (Poll of 921 likely North Carolina voters conducted Sept. 18 through Sept. 25 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.)

Credit: 
University of Massachusetts Lowell

New research provides clues on optimizing cell defenses when viruses attack

image: A live-cell visualization of the production of USP18 (green), the inhibitory factor that mediates cell refractorines--or loss of sensitivity--to interferon treatments. The red arrow points to the cell with low USP18 fluorescent reporter expression and the green arrow points to the cell with high USP18 reporter expression. Researchers have designed strategies to enrich the proportion of cells with lower USP18 production and thereby higher responsiveness to interferon.

Image: 
Hao Lab, UC San Diego

Science's pursuits of unraveling how human cells fight viral infections kicked into high gear in 2020 with the devastating emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

A study published recently in eLife by University of California San Diego scientists describes fresh details about the mechanisms involved when individual human cells are attacked by viruses, with possible implications for COVID-19 clinical treatment. The research helps advance science's understanding of interferons, a key group of immune response proteins released naturally by human cells when a virus is detected.

In response to a viral infection, human cells synthesize and secrete interferon-alpha, a chemical that triggers a series of biochemical reactions in cells, leading to the production of gene products that work to kill viruses or limit their spread. Interferon-alpha has been used clinically for more than 50 years in the treatments of diseases such as hepatitis B and C and HIV.

However such efforts have been limited because interferon-alpha, in addition to inducing antiviral effects, also triggers cell refractoriness--or insensitivity--to further treatments. This stalled effectiveness takes hold within hours after drug administration and lasts for several days, resulting in a low therapeutic response rate.

Looking into the details of these processes, Biological Sciences PhD student Anusorn Mudla, Associate Professor Nan Hao and their colleagues used a combination of experimental analyses and mathematical modeling to describe the intricate time-dependent regulatory mechanisms that human cells use to control the duration and strength of antiviral responses triggered by interferon. Their efforts resulted in the identification of a time delay in the production of USP18, an inhibitory factor that triggers cell refractoriness to prolonged interferon treatments.

"Based on these findings, repetitive administrations of interferon to cells, with the duration shorter than the delay time, are less able to induce this inhibitory factor. This could potentially suggest strategies leading to a higher therapeutic response rate than the routine chronic treatment of the drug," said Hao, a researcher in the Section of Molecular Biology and the study's senior author.

The findings are especially relevant given the urgent need for new defense tactics against the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the global COVID-19 pandemic. The new findings shed light on possible ways to enhance the effectiveness of interferon for future clinical use.

"Recent studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 is especially sensitive to interferon-alpha, compared to other coronaviruses, making interferon treatment a potential strategy to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection," said Hao.

Based on this finding, researchers could now design time-dependent administrations of interferon in an effort to minimize the production of this inhibitory factor and boost therapeutic responses.

Credit: 
University of California - San Diego

Study: Childhood chemo alters heart's caretaker cells

image: Gregory Aune, MD, PhD, and his team at the Greehey Children's Cancer Research Institute, part of UT Health San Antonio, seek answers to the puzzle of why some children who receive chemotherapy go on to develop heart failure in adulthood.

Image: 
UT Health San Antonio

Cancer chemotherapy changes the function of cells that repair heart injury, researchers at The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio (UT Health San Antonio) discovered. Twenty percent of children treated with drugs called anthracyclines go on to suffer heart failure later in life.

The journal PLOS ONE published the results Sept. 22 during Childhood Cancer Awareness Month.

"We don't fully understand why some children who are exposed to anthracycline therapy develop these problems with the heart three to four decades later," said study senior author Gregory Aune, MD, PhD, of the Greehey Children's Cancer Research Institute at UT Health San Antonio.

"The cardiac fibroblast, which acts as a sort of caretaker cell in the heart and other tissues of the body, has not been well studied in relation to this problem," said Dr. Aune, a pediatric oncologist in the Joe R. and Teresa Lozano Long School of Medicine. "We believe damage to these cells may contribute to effects seen in childhood cancer survivors when they become adults."

The group is studying how a tumor-suppressor gene called p53, which protects genes from damage, impacts the response of cardiac fibroblasts to anthracyclines. In mouse cells lacking p53 that were exposed to the drug, fibroblast function was altered, Dr. Aune said.

"Normal fibroblasts have the ability to migrate, presumably to help repair injury in the heart," said Trevi Mancilla, PhD, first author of the report. "Cardiac fibroblasts treated with anthracycline show less migration. We have not established whether or not that is detrimental."

Dr. Mancilla is a student in the South Texas Medical Scientist Training Program, which is the MD-PhD dual-degree program at UT Health San Antonio, and is also in the university's Department of Cellular and Integrative Physiology.

Pediatric oncologists give lower doses of anthracycline chemotherapy than when the drugs were introduced four decades ago. Cases of heart failure brought on acutely by the therapy are now rare.

"Although we don't see heart failure or a decline in heart function, that doesn't necessarily mean cells in the heart are not being damaged," Dr. Aune said.

Other cell types in the heart include cardiomyocytes, which enable the heart to contract; endothelial cells, which line blood vessels; and immune cells, which respond to injury or infection.

But it is the fibroblasts that have the Aune lab's attention.

"The overarching hypothesis we have in the lab is that damage to this cell population, the cardiac fibroblast, isn't innocuous," Dr. Aune said. "These cells can have their properties changed by exposure to gene-damaging agents. And then theoretically over time, that may be one contributor to the late effects that we see."

"That might translate into an inability to respond to insults such as high blood pressure or heart attacks, because fibroblasts are so important in dealing with injury," Dr. Mancilla said.

Credit: 
University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio

In the arctic, extreme air pollution kills trees, limits growth by reducing sunlight

image: A USDA Forest Service scientist is part of an international team that used dendroecology and dendrochemistry to explore air pollution's affect on trees in the most polluted site on Earth.

Image: 
Photo courtesy of Alexander Kirdyanov

Madison, WI, September 29, 2020 - An international team of scientists that includes a USDA Forest Servicescientist based in New Hampshire used tree rings to document how "Arctic dimming," the interference with sunlight caused by extreme pollution such as that at an industrial complex in northern Siberia, is killing trees and possibly affecting how trees respond to climate change.

The study, "Arctic Dimming and the Divergence Problem," was published this week by the journal Ecology Letters. Kevin T. Smith, a supervisory plant physiologist with the Forest Service's Northern Research Station, is the sole North American co-author of the study; lead author is Alexander V. Kirdyanov of the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom.

The research team used dendroecology, dendrochemistry, and process-based forward modelling to explore the relationship of tree growth and mortality with industrial pollution at the Norilsk mining complex in northern Siberia; the complex is regarded as the most heavily polluted site on Earth. Their study describes the spatial and temporal dimensions of massive tree mortality associated with development of the industrial complex.

The study also sought to explain "The Divergence Problem," a phenomenon in which scientists observed a surprising decline in tree growth despite increasing temperatures - normally a positive catalyst for tree growth - in the Arctic. They attribute the breakdown of the correlation between tree growth and climate in northern latitudes to "Arctic dimming," the loss of direct sunlight available for photosynthesis due to interference by aerosol pollutants from Norilsk and other industrial centers in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Forests encircling the Arctic are important for a number of reasons, including their role in shaping the planet's carbon cycle and climate system," Smith said. "This study demonstrates the enormous scale of forest-atmosphere-industrial interactions, and it also demonstrates how much we can learn about trees and future of forests from the ecological and chemical history we find in tree rings."

Credit: 
USDA Forest Service - Northern Research Station

New fire containment research addresses risk and safety

image: A look at the Cameron Peak Fire plume, taken in Rocky Mountain National Park on Sept. 5, 2020.

Image: 
Karina Puikkonen

As 2020 has shown, wildfire frequency, size and severity is threatening communities and natural resources across the western U.S. As a result, there is a high demand for decision-making to mitigate risk, improve firefighter safety and increase fire containment efficiency.

The Colorado Forest Restoration Institute (CFRI) at Colorado State University has been working with the USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS) to address these interrelated needs in fire and land management. Three recent publications from the research team address new ways to assess risks and evaluate firefighting effectiveness.

"Managers are making tough decisions about how to contain and control fires with limited time and information," said Ben Gannon, CFRI researcher and lead author on two of the studies. "This research is focused on supporting the development of risk-informed fire management strategies with a better understanding of fire effects and opportunities for firefighters to safely and effectively suppress fire."

The three publications cover topics ranging from what happens before and during a fire to after-incident review of the effectiveness of containment. Researchers said they hope this growing partnership will open up new areas of study in fire management.

Defining potential operational delineations

Potential fire Operational Delineations, or PODs, are spatial fire management units bounded by control features such as roads, rivers and fuel types. Containing wildfires with pre-existing control features is a long-standing practice in fire management but identifying these units for pre-fire planning is a relatively new concept.

Matt Thompson with the RMRS Wildfire Risk Management Science Team is the lead author of the study that introduces a decision support prototype to help fire and land managers quickly gather a wide variety of information to guide suppression strategy development at the POD scale. He said the tools his team created should help managers tailor fire suppression responses to local conditions.

"The POD summary and atlas really gets at the preparatory stage, or the idea of engaging the fire before it starts," Thompson said. "The intentions are to reduce time pressures and uncertainties, and expand options for incident response decisions."

The decision support tools will help organize information on ecological and social factors that managers need to be aware of, such as water supplies, wildlife habitat, cultural resources, fuel loads and land features. The team engineered the atlas to be visual and map-based so that fire managers can quickly adapt on the ground. Contributing author Mike Caggiano said the power in the tool is found in its ability to address complexities.

"The ecological, social and policy layers we consider aren't exclusive to each other," said Caggiano, also a CFRI researcher. "Fire is such a complex management issue and we are getting traction with this tool and planning framework because we are addressing the problem with the right amount of complexity."

Early adopters of the POD framework include national forests in California and Arizona. CFRI and RMRS are working to bring the POD process and related decision support products to several landscapes in Colorado and the Intermountain West.

POD size could protect water quality

Erosion from large and severe wildfires can harm water supplies, a finite resource in the west. In the second publication, Gannon led an effort to model the potential for an established Potential fire Operational Delineation network in Colorado to mitigate wildfire impacts on water quality by limiting fire sizes.

"We know fire size affects the severity of impacts for many resources, but we have only recently started to address it in wildfire risk assessment," Gannon said. "Understanding how fire size affects water quality in different parts of the landscape can help managers tailor POD sizes to mitigate impacts."

Gannon modeled how early wildfire containment within PODs could affect water quality at a municipal diversion in Colorado. The team's results suggest that limiting fires to the POD of origin could reduce area burned by up to 59 percent and sediment loads from post-fire erosion by up to 55 percent. In contrast, limiting fire sizes with the current POD network is predicted to reduce the frequency of exceeding water quality thresholds for municipal water treatment by only 13 to 34 percent, depending on post-fire rainfall. Some PODs are not small enough to limit fire sizes below harmful levels.

This suggests that efforts to strategically divide high-risk PODs into smaller units are needed to achieve greater levels of protection.

Fire line effectiveness

Recent archiving of wildfire operations data provides the opportunity to examine how much fire line is constructed and how it contributes to fire containment. In the third publication, the team analyzed fire lines from 33 large wildfires that occurred in the western U.S. between 2017-2018 to quantify how much fire line burned over, held or did not engage with fires.

The proportion of fire line that engaged with fire and held averaged only 33 percent across the incidents studied. In some cases, fire burned over lines, but many incidents had large sections of fire line that did not engage with the fire.

Fire line performance varied widely across incidents due to an individual fire's unanticipated growth or fire break placement. Fire line construction stood out in more populated areas. At times two to three times more fire line was constructed compared to final fire perimeters. In contrast, fire line production was only a small portion of the perimeter length for many fires in remote locations. This suggests that managers are adapting their strategies based on values at risk.

Gannon said the major value of the study is demonstrating how existing data can be used to monitor and rate fire suppression effectiveness to promote adaptive management in fire management organizations.

"This fire line performance evaluation framework provides a coarse filter to identify high and low performing fires," he added. "A deeper dive is needed to diagnose the causes of inefficiencies and how to improve management strategies."

As more detailed fire progression, behavior and suppression records become available, Gannon and other researchers will explore this topic to understand what fire line and environmental characteristics influence the probability of successful containment.

Researchers will use new data from the 2020 fire season in Colorado - which is proving to be severe and ongoing - to develop applied lines of research on wildfire risk and safety factors. The research team hopes to advance both fire science and its application in fire and land management to help with response preparations for future wildfires.

Credit: 
Colorado State University

The Lancet: Radiotherapy following prostate cancer surgery can safely be avoided for many men

Systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that patients with localised and locally advanced prostate cancer may be potentially spared radiotherapy and its associated side effects following surgery
The authors recommend that if prostate cancer later recurs or relapses men should receive radiotherapy at that stage
The systematic review and meta-analysis is based on three new randomised controlled trials, which are also published in The Lancet and The Lancet Oncology today Most men receiving surgery for localised and locally advanced prostate cancer can have radiotherapy safely removed from their initial treatment, according to a systematic review and meta-analysis published in The Lancet.

The authors recommend that patients should be closely followed after surgery for treating localised and locally advanced prostate cancer. If the cancer shows early signs of coming back, men should be offered radiotherapy. They say that changing treatment policy in this way may offer the opportunity to spare many men radiotherapy and its associated side effects.

Dr Claire Vale, who led the systematic review and meta-analysis, from the MRC Clinical Trials Unit at University College London, UK, said: "Our findings suggest that following surgery, patients whose cancer is confined to the prostate, or has spread only to nearby tissues or organs, can safely be spared routine post-operative radiotherapy and its associated side effects. Radiotherapy need only be given to men if they show early signs that the cancer may be returning." [1]

"Guidelines and policy regarding the standard of care for prostate cancer should be updated based on the findings of this review of the three new trials." [1]

The authors of the new study identified three trials comparing relevant radiotherapy approaches and prospectively planned a systematic review and meta-analysis to combine their results. The trials include data from France, Australia and New Zealand, and the UK, Canada, Denmark and Ireland, which investigate the optimal timing of radiotherapy after removal of the prostate, which, until now, had remained unclear.

The meta-analysis assessed results from 2,153 men enrolled across the three trials, with median follow-up of at least five years. 1,075 men were randomised to receive adjuvant radiotherapy following surgery, and 1,078 men to early salvage radiotherapy, where treatment is delayed until first signs of disease progression. Only 421 (39%) men had started early salvage radiotherapy at the time of analysis. Patients had a median age of around 65 years, and most (78%) had a Gleason score of 7.

The authors found that routinely giving patients adjuvant radiotherapy after surgery does not improve outcomes after five years, compared with early salvage radiotherapy (event-free survival was 89% for adjuvant radiotherapy and 88% for early salvage radiotherapy).

The authors will continue to monitor outcomes from the trials and plan further meta-analyses to compare longer-term effects.

The largest of the three new trials included in the meta-analysis, RADICALS-RT, published in The Lancet, randomly assigned 1,396 men with a median age of 65 to either adjuvant radiotherapy (697 men) or early salvage radiotherapy (699 men). Patients were enrolled in Canada, Denmark, Ireland and the UK, and were followed for an average of 5 years. The authors found that people who underwent adjuvant radiotherapy had more side effects than those who had early salvage radiotherapy, including restricted flow of urine from the bladder (10%, 62/599 patients vs 6%, 35/621 patients) and increased blood in the urine (16%, 94/599 patients vs 4%, 27/621 patients) two years after treatment began. Study first author Prof Chris Parker, from The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK said: "The results suggest that radiotherapy is equally effective whether it is given to all men shortly after surgery or given later to those men with recurrent disease. There is a strong case now that observation should be the standard approach after surgery and radiotherapy should only be used if the cancer comes back." "The good news is that in future, many men will avoid the side-effects of radiotherapy," added Parker. "These include urinary leakage and narrowing of the urethra, which can make urination difficult. Both are potential complications after surgery alone, but the risk is increased if radiotherapy is used as well." The effect of radiotherapy timing was assessed by recording patients' first disease event (e.g. a PSA level of at least 2ng/ml) after treatment. While it was not yet possible to determine the long-term effectiveness of adjuvant radiotherapy and early salvage radiotherapy at preventing the spread of the disease, the authors will continue to investigate this.

The conclusions will not apply to all patients having surgery for prostate cancer. Those with very low risk localised disease are not currently considered for radiotherapy, whereas those with the highest chance of prostate cancer spreading would routinely be offered radiotherapy after surgery.

In the future, RADICALS will also report on the effect of giving hormone therapy - which may delay progression - alongside radiotherapy.

The GETUG-AFU 17 trial, published in The Lancet Oncology, enrolled 424 men with a median age of 64 from 46 hospitals in France. Patients were randomly assigned to adjuvant radiotherapy or early salvage radiotherapy, both combined with short-term hormonal therapy to prevent cancer cells receiving the testosterone they need to grow. People who underwent adjuvant radiotherapy had more overall side effects than those who had early salvage radiotherapy (87%, 184/212 patients vs 44%, 93/212 patients).

The RAVES trial, published in The Lancet Oncology, enrolled 333 patients with a median age of 64 in Australia and New Zealand. Patients were randomly assigned either adjuvant radiotherapy or early salvage radiotherapy. Men in the adjuvant radiotherapy group had more overall side effects than those who had early salvage radiotherapy (70%, 116/166 patients vs 54%, 90/167 patients).

The RAVES and GETUG-AFU 17 trials were smaller than RADICALS-RT. Each alone had more limited statistical power. Combined with results from RADICALS-RT in the ARTISTIC meta-analysis, however, they provide strong support for the use of early salvage radiotherapy rather than adjuvant radiotherapy for most men, which could spare many patients from needing radiotherapy. Clinical guidelines have offered conflicting advice as to which patients are offered radiotherapy following surgery.

Credit: 
The Lancet

Natural capital a missing piece in climate policy

Clean air, clean water and a functioning ecosystem are considered priceless. Yet the economic value of nature remains elusive in cost-benefit analysis of climate policy regulations and greenhouse-gas-reduction efforts.

A study published today in the journal Nature Sustainability incorporates those insights from sustainability science into a classic model of climate change costs. Led by the University of California, Davis, the study shows that accounting for the economic value of nature has large implications for climate policy and that the cost of climate change could be partly alleviated by investing in natural capital.

"It may seem abstract, with terms like 'natural capital,' but these are real things," said senior author Frances Moore, a professor in the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy. "What we're talking about is thousands of species being at high risk of extinction and large-scale changes to the ecosystem services we depend on for our lives and our economy. At the end of the day, this paper addresses some fundamental questions of how humans depend on nature for their wellbeing."

NATURAL CAPITAL AN ECONOMIC BUILDING BLOCK

Climate economic models typically represent the economy as made of two building blocks: human capital (labor) and manufactured capital, such as buildings and machines. This study incorporates a third building block--natural capital--which comprises the natural systems and healthy habitats for species. Natural capital translates into tangible benefits for people, such as erosion control, and intangible benefits, such as preserving forests for future generations.

"If lost, such natural processes cannot easily be replaced or substituted," said lead author Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, a Ph.D. candidate in the UC Davis Geography Graduate Group. "The associated economic costs of that loss are damaging in a way not currently represented in climate economic models or policy."

The authors found that under plausible assumptions about how natural capital supports economic production and human welfare, climate damage to natural systems warrants rapid mitigation. Most previous analysis has ignored the pathways by which natural systems support welfare and their unique vulnerability to climate change--potentially missing a critical piece of climate damages.

SOCIAL COST OF CARBON TOO LOW

Federal agencies use the "social cost of carbon" to represent the long-term damage done by a ton of CO2 emissions in a given year. The metric is widely used in cost-benefit analyses of climate and energy policy. Yet standard estimates only roughly account for ecological damages and do not fully account for the unique and long-term costs of climate impacts on natural systems. Because of this, the study finds that the federal social cost of carbon may well be far too low.

"With this new framework, we are more aware of the need to limit emissions," Bastien-Olvera said. "We calculate the emissions pathway that maximizes social welfare in the model. That pathway limits warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, consistent with goals of the Paris Agreement. The clues keep leading us to the same conclusion--the need to urgently reduce emissions to limit warming."

Credit: 
University of California - Davis

Cement-free concrete beats corrosion and gives fatbergs the flush

image: Image of a fatberg on display in the Melbourne Museum.

Image: 
Copyright Museums Victoria, Photographer: Rob Zugaro

Researchers from RMIT University have developed an eco-friendly zero-cement concrete, which all but eliminates corrosion.

Concrete corrosion and fatbergs plague sewage systems around the world, leading to costly and disruptive maintenance.

But now RMIT engineers have developed concrete that can withstand the corrosive acidic environment found in sewage pipes, while greatly reducing residual lime that leaches out, contributing to fatbergs.

Fatbergs are gross globs of congealed mass clogging sewers with fat, grease, oil and non-biodegradable junk like wet wipes and nappies, some growing to be 200 metres long and weighing tonnes.

Billion-dollar savings

These build-ups of fat, oil and grease in sewers and pipelines, as well as general corrosion over time, costs billions in repairs and replacement pipes.

The RMIT researchers, led by Dr Rajeev Roychand, created a concrete that eliminates free lime - a chemical compound that promotes corrosion and fatbergs.

Roychand said the solution is more durable than ordinary Portland cement, making it perfect for use in major infrastructure, such as sewage drainage pipes.

"The world's concrete sewage pipes have suffered durability issues for too long," Roychand said.

"Until now, there was a large research gap in developing eco-friendly material to protect sewers from corrosion and fatbergs.

"But we've created concrete that's protective, strong and environmental - the perfect trio."

The perfect blend

By-products of the manufacturing industry are key ingredients of the cement-less concrete - a zero cement composite of nano-silica, fly-ash, slag and hydrated lime.

Not only does their concrete use large volumes of industrial by-products, supporting a circular economy, it surpasses sewage pipe strength standards set by ASTM International.

"Though ordinary Portland cement is widely used in the fast-paced construction industry, it poses long term durability issues in some of its applications," Roychand said.

"We found making concrete out of this composite blend - rather than cement - significantly improved longevity."

Sustainable benefits

Replacing underground concrete pipes is a tedious task, ripping up the ground is expensive and often has a ripple effect of prolonged traffic delays and neighbourhood nuisances.

The Water Services Association of Australia estimates maintaining sewage networks costs $15 million each year, billions worldwide.

The environmental cost is greater - ordinary Portland cement accounts for about 5% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

However, the RMIT study has proven certain by-products can be up to the job, replacing cement and able to withstand the high acidity of sewage pipes.

"Our zero-cement concrete achieves multiple benefits: it's environmentally friendly, reduces concrete corrosion by 96% and totally eliminates residual lime that is instrumental in the formation of fatbergs," Roychand said.

"With further development, our zero-cement concrete could be made totally resistant to acid corrosion."

Credit: 
RMIT University

A red future for improving crop production?

image: Australian scientists have been looking at Rubisco diversity in different organisms to find one they can transfer to crops,

Image: 
Lawrence Atkin

Researchers have found a way to engineer more efficient versions of the plant enzyme Rubisco by using a red-algae-like Rubisco from a bacterium.

For 50 years scientists have striven to boost the activity of Rubisco, a promising target to increase crop production as it controls how much and how fast plants fix carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into sugars and energy during photosynthesis.

"We discovered 20 years ago that red algae can produce more efficient versions of Rubisco than those found in plants but we have been frustrated by not being able to produce algae Rubisco in plants," says lead researcher Professor Spencer Whitney, from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Translational Photosynthesis (CoETP) at The Australian National University (ANU).

The challenge of assembling more efficient Rubiscos - like the ones found in red-algae - inside crop plants stems from the complicated construction process needed to put together Rubiscos' sixteen protein components. To hurdle this obstacle, Professor Whitney and his team turned their attention to the red-algae-like Rubisco from the photosynthetic bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides.

This work, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), found that the red Rubisco of this bacterium meets all the criteria to be accepted inside plants chloroplasts.

"As the assembly requirements of this red Rubisco are relatively simple, we found that plants could make lots of it," says co-author Dr Elena Martin-Avila.

"We also found that we needed to introduce its matching Rubisco activase, an enzyme in charge of unclogging the catalytic sites of Rubisco. The effect of co-introducing it is that the rates of photosynthesis and plant growth are stimulated two-fold," remarks Dr Martin-Avila.

"Another very exciting result of our study is that we can now test how well modified versions of the red-Rubisco can be produced in plants by first expressing it in Escherichia coli, a bacterium used in laboratory testing," explains co-author Dr Laura Gunn.

"The beauty of this is it allows us to rapidly identify better-performing versions of the red Rubisco before introducing into plants, a process that is both time-consuming and costly," she says.

"We are already well on the way to doubling the CO2-fixation rate of this already very fast bacterial red-Rubisco using laboratory evolution. Our next step is to see how well the evolved red Rubisco isoforms can stimulate crop photosynthesis, growth and yield," says Professor Whitney.

Credit: 
ARC Centre of Excellence for Translational Photosynthesis