Tech

When satellites take pictures of Earth at night, how much of the light that they see comes from streetlights? A team of scientists from Germany, the USA, and Ireland have answered this question for the first time using the example of the U.S. city of Tucson, thanks to "smart city" lighting technology that allows cities to dim their lights. The result: only around 20 percent of the light in the satellite images of Tucson comes from streetlights. The study is published today in the journal Lighting Research & Technology.

The team conducted an experiment by changing the brightness of streetlights in the city of Tucson, Arizona, USA, and observing how this changed how bright the city appeared from space. Dr. Christopher Kyba from the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences led the team that conducted the experiment, and said the work is important because it shows that smart city technologies can be used to perform city-scale experiments. "When sensors and control systems are installed throughout an entire city, it is possible to make a change in how the city works, and then measure the impact that change has on the environment, even from outer space," Kyba said.

Over a period of 10 days in March and April of 2019, Tucson officials changed the brightness settings for about 14,000 of the city's 19,500 streetlights. Usually, most streetlights in Tucson start out at 90 per cent of their maximum possible illumination, and dim to 60 per cent at midnight. During the experiment, the city instead dimmed lights all the way down to 30 per cent on some nights, and brightened them up to 100 per cent on others. The city lights were observed by the US-operated Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite, which is famous for its global maps of light at night. The satellite took cloud-free images of Tucson on four nights during the test, and on two other nights with regular lighting after the test. By comparing the city brightness on the 6 different nights, the researchers found that on a normal night, only about 20 per cent of the light in satellite images of Tucson comes from streetlights.

The results have important implications for sustainability, according to study co-author Dr. John Barentine from the International Dark-Sky Association. In a second experiment conducted at the same time, Barentine, Kyba and their co-authors measured the sky brightness over Tucson from the ground. They examined how varying the illuminance of street lamps affected the sky brightness, and showed that as with light emissions seen from space, most of the sky brightness over Tucson is also due to other sources. "Taken together, these studies show that in a city with well-designed streetlights, most of the light emissions and light pollution come from other lights," Barentine explaines, including light sources such as bright shop windows, lit signs and facades, or sport fields. The authors say that local and national governments therefore need to think about more than just street lighting when trying to reduce light pollution.

According to the researchers, the difference in the streetlighting brightness on the different nights is barely perceptible to the people on the street, as our eyes quickly adapt to the light levels. They report that the city received no comments or complaints about the changed lighting during the test. There is also no evidence or suggestion that reducing lighting levels as part of the experiment had any adverse effect on public safety.

Kyba is therefore excited by the idea of performing such experiments more regularly, and in other municipalities. "Instead of dimming lights to the same level late each night, a city could instead dim to 45% on even days and 55% on odd days," Kyba suggested. "City residents wouldn't notice any difference, but that way we could measure how the contribution of different light types is changing over time."

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- We know how search engines can favor certain results and how social media might push us into bubbles, but it's still easy to view the internet as a place where we're in control.

A new study, however, argues that notion of personal empowerment is "an illusion." Corporations are "nudging" the flow of our online attention more than we realize, and often in hidden ways - not unlike radio and TV programmers of the past - said co-authors Harsh Taneja, with the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Angela Xiao Wu, with New York University.

The researchers analyzed clickstream data on a million people over one month of internet use. They also looked at corporate ownership of sites and platforms, how those sites were designed, and the partnerships that connected them.

They found that on the web, "media architectures still shape the flow of public attention. This happens in subtle ways that nudge users in particular directions. It often takes advantage of habitual behaviors and is generally difficult for the users themselves to see or understand."

Concerns about the power of Big Tech have been growing, with an antitrust case recently filed and executives testifying before Congress, but Taneja and Wu claim their study is one of the few to document Big Tech's power systematically and at scale.

Taneja is a professor of media at Illinois and Wu is a professor of media, culture and communication at NYU. Their study, "Going with the flow: Nudging attention online," with third author James G. Webster, a professor emeritus of communication studies at Northwestern University, was published online by the journal New Media & Society.

In talking about "flow," the researchers are referencing a concept applied earlier to radio and television, "audience flow," which described how broadcasters planned shows and schedules to direct viewers into sequences of programs.

"What we are trying to show here," Taneja said, "is that even on the internet there are reasonably predictable patterns of how people go from website to website, which happens due to these larger effects that are not really based on content. They are based instead on how the internet is structured by these corporations - by who links where, who partners with whom. A lot of these corporate nudges actually mainstream what people get exposed to, in ways that give users less of what they may willingly choose."

The data used by Taneja and Wu was collected by the research firm Comscore during October 2015. Their data sample, based on a panel of 1 million internet users, included 1,761 websites that reached at least 1% of U.S. users during that month. Drawing on that data, they identified common clusters or "constellations" of websites that represent browsing sequences and established how that browsing behavior linked to corporate ownerships, partnerships and website types.

Despite the five years since the data collection, Taneja said their findings remain at least as valid given the increased power of corporate platforms since then and the greater sophistication of their nudges.

The researchers identified 11 clusters or constellations and the "anchor" sites within them that served as common starting and returning points for browsing sequences.

Among these clusters were a Bing/Microsoft cluster anchored by Bing and MSN content sites; a Google cluster anchored by Google search, YouTube and Gmail; and a social media cluster anchored by Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn.

More surprising were two Yahoo clusters and one AOL cluster, showing those companies' continued relevance, perhaps due to older users. Other clusters centered on data solicitations, retailers using Citibank, pornography sites, job search and travel.

Based on their analysis, Taneja and Wu also derived four different methods through which corporations directed or nudged online users, each at a different level of user visibility and control. The highest was content ranking and curation, used by search engines and social media.

The next was hypertexts, used in media content by Yahoo, AOL and Pornhub to direct users to their own or partner media sites. In these cases, the nudge was visible, but users had less control.

The third type of nudge was employed by Microsoft through the software configurations built into its Windows operating system, which made the company's browser, search engine and homepage all the default, unlikely to be changed by many users. This provided an infrastructure "wired both into the software and hardware to make users go around the internet in a certain way," Taneja said.

The fourth type of nudge was largely hidden and outside user control, coming through back-end databases or software - exemplified by e-commerce and service sites such as Citibank, which processed many credit card payments for retailers, as well as job search, travel and sites that solicited user data.

To the extent that people think about constraints in their internet use, it usually focuses on their use of specific platforms, Taneja said. "People think of constraints as limited to what they do inside Facebook, or what Google does," he said.

"But they don't see the whole internet as this space that operates with these very large constraints, or constraints that exist at multiple layers."

President Donald Trump is about even with former Vice President Joe Biden in a close contest for Texas' 38 electoral votes in a new swing state poll of Texas likely voters released today.

The independent, nonpartisan poll by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion found that Trump has the support of 48 percent of likely Texas voters, Biden is at 47 percent and minor party candidates are at 3 percent. Only 1 percent of Texas likely voters say they are undecided. Trump's 1-point advantage, well within the poll's plus or minus 4.2 percent margin of error, indicates that the race is incredibly close. This also represents a small shift in the race; in a Sept. 29 poll by the center, Trump led Biden by 3 points.

For most of the early voting period, Texas has led the nation in early voting turnout as a percentage of 2016 turnout. As of this morning, the United States Election Project reports that the current voter turnout in Texas is an astonishing 94 percent of the total turnout in 2016.

Those who have already voted this year represent 60 percent of the respondents in this poll, which was fielded from Oct. 20 through Oct. 26. Among those who have already voted, Biden leads Trump, 52 percent to 46 percent. But among those who intend to vote on Election Day, Trump leads Biden 64 percent to 30 percent. With an unprecedented number of early votes in Texas already cast, it will be critical for Trump to turn out his supporters, many of whom have decided to wait until Election Day. More on voters' support by age, ethnicity, gender and education is available at http://www.uml.edu/polls.

While Trump leads Biden, his approval rating is even among Texas likely voters at 50 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove. Among those who approve, 36 percent do so strongly and 14 percent somewhat. Among Trump disapprovers, 8 percent do so somewhat and 42 percent strongly disapprove of the way he is handling his job as president.

With the two presidential debates in the books, a plurality of Texas likely voters believe that Joe Biden was the winner of each debate. On the first debate, Biden was given the nod by 41 percent of voters compared to 33 percent for Trump; another 15 percent said the debate was a draw and 11 percent were unsure. On the second debate, 43 percent gave Biden the win, 39 percent gave Trump the win, 8 percent said it was a draw and 11 percent said they were unsure. When asked about the overall quality of the 2020 debates compared to previous years, 71 percent of likely Texas voters said that the debates were worse than in previous years, 8 percent said they were better, 13 percent said they were about the same and 8 percent were unsure.

"Democrats have been dreaming of a Blue Texas for longer than most Texans have been alive. This is the clearest sign that Democrats are close, but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, not elections. Democrats have probably surged almost all the votes they can get out of the Lone Star State; the question is whether Republicans will be motivated enough to turn out on Election Day," said John Cluverius, associate director of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and assistant professor of political science.

In a closely watched U.S. Senate race in Texas, Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn has seen his lead cut in half in a race against Democratic challenger MJ Hegar. Cornyn, who previously led Hegar by 10 points in the center's Sept. 29 poll, now polls at 49 percent to Hegar's 44 percent with 5 percent of voters undecided.

Cornyn's net favorability rating is just +1 (40 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable) and 17 percent of Texas likely voters have no opinion of him, while 5 percent have never heard of him. However, time may be running out for Hegar. While she appears to have gained ground on Cornyn since last month, her net favorables have also declined from +13 to +2 over the last month. She is now at 35 percent favorable and 33 percent unfavorable, with 24 percent who have no opinion and 8 percent who have never heard of her.

"With his weak favorables, one can't help but wonder what might have been in this Senate race if a higher profile challenger with more name recognition had entered this race," said Joshua Dyck, director of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and associate professor of political science.

A central defining issue of the 2020 election campaign has been the coronavirus pandemic and resulting policy response from the government. Asked how satisfied they are with the federal government's response to COVID-19, 52 percent of Texas likely voters say they are unsatisfied, compared to 48 percent who are satisfied. Asked who is better suited to handle the pandemic, likely voters give the edge to Biden, 46 percent to 41 percent for Trump. On the question of whether it is safe to re-open schools, 51 percent of Texas likely voters say that it is not safe to reopen local public schools for face-to-face instruction. When asked if Trump could have avoided contracting COVID-19 by wearing a mask more often, 63 percent of likely voters said yes, while 37 percent said no.

The poll also found the following among likely Texas voters:

Gov. Greg Abbott has an approval rating of 56 percent (32 percent strongly approve, 24 percent somewhat approve);

Asked who they think will win the 2020 presidential election, Texas likely voters give Trump the slight edge: 44 percent say Trump will win and 40 percent say Biden will win. The perception of the race has shifted since the Sept. 29 poll, when Trump had a 12 percent edge over Biden on who voters said would win;

Asked who will best handle the economy, Trump beats Biden 51 percent to Biden's 38 percent;

The Trump campaign has made a concerted effort to pin to Biden the label of a "corrupt politician," tying him to his son's alleged activities in the Ukraine. Has it worked? Head to head, the center's survey asked likely voters about the candidates on a number of dimensions. On the question of "who is more corrupt?" 44 percent say Trump and 42 percent say Biden, with 9 percent saying they are about equal, and 5 percent unsure.

Detailed poll results - including topline and methodology - are available at http://www.uml.edu/polls. The nonpartisan poll is independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell's Center for Public Opinion, which conducts public-opinion polling at the state and national levels. The nationally recognized center uses the latest technology and highest standards in its surveys and is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research's Transparency Initiative. The center's events and polls on political and social issues provide unique opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and research.

The poll of 873 likely Texas voters was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell, which has more than 1,000 students and alumni who hail from Texas. The survey was designed and analyzed by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov from Oct. 20 through Oct. 26. It has an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent. Full poll methodology is available at http://www.uml.edu/polls.

In addition to the survey of likely voters in Texas, the Center for Public Opinion also released polls in two other states today. The findings include:

In New Hampshire, Biden leads by 10 points, with 53 percent of likely voters, compared to 43 percent for Trump. Biden's lead has widened from eight points in the Sept. 29 poll by the center. Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads her challenger, Republican Corky Messner 57 percent to 38 percent.
Incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Sununu leads Democratic challenger Dan Feltes 59 percent to 36 percent. (Poll of 757 likely New Hampshire voters conducted Oct. 16 through Oct. 26 with an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.)

In North Carolina, Trump and Biden are tied with 48 percent support of likely voters. In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham leads Republican incumbent Thom Tillis 49 percent to 45 percent. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican challenger Dan Forest 54 percent to 42 percent. (Poll of 911 likely North Carolina voters conducted Oct. 20 through Oct. 26 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.)

UMass Lowell is a national research university offering its more than 18,000 students bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees in business, education, engineering, fine arts, health, humanities, sciences and social sciences. UMass Lowell delivers high-quality educational programs and personal attention from leading faculty and staff, all of which prepare graduates to be leaders in their communities and around the globe. http://www.uml.edu

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 10 points among likely New Hampshire voters, according to a new poll released today by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion.

Biden has extended his lead over Trump in the contest for New Hampshire's four electoral votes in a new swing state poll of likely New Hampshire voters by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion. New Hampshire was hotly contested in 2016 with Hillary Clinton besting Trump by fewer than 3,000 total votes, a margin of less than one half of 1 percent.

The independent, nonpartisan poll released today found that Biden leads with 53 percent of likely voters compared to 43 percent for Trump, followed by 3 percent for third-party candidates. Only 2 percent of likely voters say they are undecided. In a Sept. 29 poll by the center, Biden led Trump by 8 points. For details on how the candidates are performing with voters by age, gender, party and education, see http://www.uml.edu/polls.

While New Hampshire does not have early in-person voting, due to the pandemic, Granite State voters were allowed to request a no-fault absentee ballot, and the turnout in the state has already reached 24 percent of the 2016 total. In 2016, by contrast, absentee ballots made up just 3 percent of the total ballots cast in New Hampshire, according to the United States Election Project. In the center's survey, 24 percent of respondents reported that they had already voted. Among those who have voted, Biden leads Trump by a large margin, 80 percent to 19 percent.

While Trump trails Biden, his approval rating is 44 percent, almost equivalent with vote percentage in the head-to-head with Biden. While many voters who had a negative view of Trump in 2016 ended up ultimately supporting him, the fact that his vote total tracks so closely with his approval rating shows that when opinions about Trump are negative, they are very negative. Among the 56 percent who disapprove of Trump, 48 percent said they strongly disapprove.

"Trump's big problem in 2020 is that he can't run on what he is going to do, but has to run on what he has done. Voters are no longer willing to give him the benefit of the doubt," said Joshua Dyck, director of the Center for Public Opinion and associate professor of political science.

With the two presidential debates in the books, a plurality of New Hampshire likely voters believe that Biden was the winner of the first debate, but Trump did significantly better at the second debate. On the first debate, Biden was given the nod by 46 percent of voters compared to 31 percent for Trump; another 14 percent said the debate was a draw and 9 percent were unsure. On the second debate, 40 percent gave Trump the win, 34 percent gave Biden the win, 19 percent said it was a draw and 7 percent said they were unsure.

The 2020 election has been a remarkably stable election, but it is unique because it has been overtaken by one issue more than any other, the reality of the coronavirus pandemic. On this issue, Trump has struggled, and the poll indicates that the issue of COVID-19 is why the president has gone from barely losing New Hampshire in 2016 to trailing by double digits with less than a week to go in the campaign.

Asked how satisfied they are with the federal government's response to COVID-19, 58 percent of New Hampshire likely voters say they are unsatisfied, compared to 42 percent who are satisfied. Asked who is better suited to handle the pandemic, likely voters give the edge to Biden, 53 percent to 38 percent for Trump. On the question of whether it is safe to re-open schools, 54 percent of New Hampshire likely voters say that it is either probably (34 percent) or definitely (20 percent) not safe to reopen local public schools for face-to-face instruction. When asked if Trump could have avoided contracting COVID-19 by wearing a mask more often, 72 percent of likely voters said yes, while 27 percent said no.

"Granite State voters, who overwhelming side with the science of the virus and the scientists fighting it, are punishing the president for the surge in cases there," said John Cluverius, associate director of the Center for Public Opinion and assistant professor of political science.

In the races for U.S. Senate and governor, the two incumbents continue to lead their challengers.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is ahead of Republican Corky Messner, by 19 points, 57 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent saying they will vote for another candidate and 4 percent still undecided. In the center's Sept. 29 poll, Shaheen led by an equivalent margin, 19 points, 56 percent to 37 percent. Shaheen continues to win the support of an impressive 97 percent of Democrats, but also 48 percent of independents and 16 percent of Republicans.

Meanwhile, incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Sununu leads Democrat Dan Feltes by 23 points, 59 percent to 36 percent, with 1 percent saying they will vote for another candidate and 4 percent saying they are undecided. Sununu's lead is down 3 points from the Sept. 29 UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion poll that had him ahead by 26 points, 60 percent to 34 percent. Still, Sununu wins the support of 92 percent of Republicans, but also 69 percent of independents and 24 percent of Democrats.

The poll of likely New Hampshire voters also found:

Asked who they think will win the 2020 presidential election, Granite State likely voters give Biden the edge: 44 percent say Biden will win and 41 percent say Trump will win. Biden led on this same question by 5 points in the Sept. 29 poll. Voters continue to view the race as competitive, even in the face of Biden's growing lead in state and national polling;

When the question is who will best handle the economy, Trump beats Biden 48 percent to 45 percent;

The Trump campaign has made a concerted effort to pin to Biden the label of a "corrupt politician," tying him to his son's alleged activities in the Ukraine. Has it worked? Head to head, the center's poll asked likely voters about the candidates on a number of dimensions. On the question of "who is more corrupt?" 54 percent say Trump and 35 percent say Biden, with 8 percent saying they are about equal, and 3 percent unsure.

The nonpartisan poll of 757 likely New Hampshire voters was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell, which has more than 13,000 students, alumni and employees from the Granite State. The Center for Public Opinion presents events and polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research.

The survey was designed and analyzed by the Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov from Oct. 16 through Oct. 26. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent. Detailed poll results - including topline and full methodology - are available at http://www.uml.edu/polls.

In addition to the survey of likely voters in New Hampshire, the Center for Public Opinion also released polls in two other states today. The findings include:

In North Carolina, Trump and Biden are tied with 48 percent support of likely voters. In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham leads Republican incumbent Thom Tillis 49 percent to 45 percent. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican challenger Dan Forest 54 percent to 42 percent. (Poll of 911 likely North Carolina voters conducted Oct. 20 through Oct. 26 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.)

In Texas, Trump is nearly even with Biden, with the support of 48 percent of likely voters compared to 47 percent who favor Biden. The difference is within the plus or minus 4.2 percent margin of error for the poll and Trump's lead is down from 3 points from the Sept. 29 poll by the center. (Poll of 873 likely Texas voters conducted Oct. 20 through Oct. 26 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.)

UMass Lowell is a national research university offering its more than 18,000 students bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees in business, education, engineering, fine arts, health, humanities, sciences and social sciences. UMass Lowell delivers high-quality educational programs and personal attention from leading faculty and staff, all of which prepare graduates to be leaders in their communities and around the globe. http://www.uml.edu

With less than a week to go before Election Day, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden remain deadlocked in the race for the 15 electoral votes in the swing state of North Carolina, according to a new poll released today.

"North Carolina is a must-win state for Trump, who trails Biden in most national polls and must hold onto the narrow map of states that brought him a victory in 2016," said Joshua Dyck, director of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and associate professor of political science.

The independent, nonpartisan poll by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion found that the candidates are tied at 48 percent each of likely voters, followed by minor party candidates with 2 percent. Only 2 percent of North Carolina likely voters are undecided. The poll results are virtually unchanged from a Sept. 29 poll by the center, which found the candidates tied at 47 percent each among likely voters. As turnout in North Carolina is now above 80 percent of the total turnout in the 2016 election, it's become clear that early voting has become a major part of the story. Among those who have already voted, Biden has a sizeable lead over Trump, 62 percent to 36 percent. Among those who had not voted when the field was conducted, Trump leads 64 percent to 30 percent.

"Biden's voters are voting and have voted. Trump's voters are still out there, waiting until Election Day. A Nov. 3 turnout disaster is a disaster for Trump's chances in North Carolina, and could cost him the presidency as well," said John Cluverius, associate director of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and assistant professor of political science.

White voters in North Carolina support Trump 58 percent to 38 percent for Biden, while Black voters support Biden, 83 percent to 14 percent. More on voters' support by gender, age, party and education is available at http://www.uml.edu/polls.

The poll also looked at how the presidential debates affected voters' views. The poll included 40 percent of interviews completed after the second debate on Thursday, Oct. 22 and 60 percent completed before it, allowing for comparison of whether the race shifted during the fielding of the poll. The poll found no difference between those interviewed before and after the second presidential debate. Trump and Biden are tied 48 percent to 48 percent among both subgroups.

Asked who performed better in the debates, North Carolina likely voters overwhelmingly believe that Biden won the first debate 44 percent to Trump's 26 percent and a slim plurality believe that Trump won the second debate 44 percent to Biden's 38 percent.

In the race for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis continues to trail Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham by 4 points in a contest that has moved within the poll's margin of error. The race is in the national spotlight as it is a possible flip for Democrats, who need to gain four seats to regain control of the chamber.

Cunningham previously led Tillis by 6 points in a Sept. 29 UMass Lowell poll. In the poll released today, Cunningham has the support of 49 percent of North Carolina likely voters, Tillis is at 45 percent and 6 percent remain undecided. Cunningham's lead is bolstered by support from a large percentage of Democratic voters (95 percent), a lead among independents (41 percent to 35 percent) and also by gaining the support of 10 percent of Republican identifying crossover voters.

A central defining issue of the 2020 election campaign has been the coronavirus pandemic and resulting policy response from the government. Asked how satisfied they are with the federal government's response to COVID-19, 57 percent of North Carolina likely voters say they are unsatisfied, compared to 43 percent who are satisfied. Asked who is better suited to handle the pandemic, likely voters give the edge to Biden, 48 percent to 41 percent for Trump. On the question of whether it is safe to re-open schools, 54 percent of North Carolina likely voters say that it is either probably (30 percent) or definitely (24 percent) not safe to reopen local public schools for face-to-face instruction. When asked if Donald Trump could have avoided contracting COVID-19 by wearing a mask more often, 60 percent of likely voters said yes, while 39 percent said no.

In the run for governor, incumbent Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper leads his Republican challenger Dan Forest by 12 points, 54 percent to 42 percent. The results are virtually unchanged from the center's Sept. 29 poll, which found Cooper at 54 percent to Forest's 41 percent.

The poll also found the following among likely North Carolina voters:

Asked who they think will win the 2020 Presidential election, North Carolina likely voters give a Trump reelection the slight edge: 43 percent say Trump and 38 percent say Biden. In the September poll, Trump was ahead 10 points on the question compared to five now.

On who will best handle the economy, 51 percent said Trump and 43 percent said Biden.

The Trump campaign has made a concerted effort to pin to Biden the label of a "corrupt politician," tying him to his son's alleged activities in the Ukraine. Has it worked? Head to head, the survey asked likely voters about the candidates on a number of dimensions. On the question of "who is more corrupt?" 47 percent say Trump and 42 percent say Biden, with 7 percent saying they are about equal, and 5 percent unsure.

Detailed poll results - including analysis and methodology - are available at http://www.uml.edu/polls. The nonpartisan poll is independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell's Center for Public Opinion, which conducts public-opinion polling at the state and national levels. The nationally recognized center uses the latest technology and highest standards in its surveys and is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research's Transparency Initiative. The center's events and polls on political and social issues provide unique opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and research.

The poll of 911 likely North Carolina voters was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell, which has more than 1,000 students and alumni who hail from North Carolina. The survey was designed and analyzed by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov from Oct. 20 through Oct. 26. It has an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent. Full poll methodology is available at http://www.uml.edu/polls.

In addition to the survey of likely voters in North Carolina, the Center for Public Opinion also released polls in two other swing states. The findings include:

In New Hampshire, Biden leads by 10 points, with 53 percent of likely voters, compared to 43 percent for Trump. Biden's lead has widened from eight points in the Sept. 29 poll by the center. Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads her challenger, Republican Corky Messner 57 percent to 38 percent.
Incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Sununu leads Democratic challenger Dan Feltes 59 percent to 36 percent. (Poll of 757 likely New Hampshire voters conducted Oct. 16 through Oct. 26 with an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.)

In Texas, Trump is nearly even with Biden, with the support of 48 percent of likely voters compared to 47 percent who favor Biden. The difference is within the plus or minus 4.2 percent margin of error for the poll and Trump's lead is down from 3 points from the Sept. 29 poll by the center. (Poll of 873 likely Texas voters conducted Oct. 20 through Oct. 26 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.)

UMass Lowell is a national research university offering its more than 18,000 students bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees in business, education, engineering, fine arts, health, humanities, sciences and social sciences. UMass Lowell delivers high-quality educational programs and personal attention from leading faculty and staff, all of which prepare graduates to be leaders in their communities and around the globe. http://www.uml.edu

LOS ALAMOS, N.M., October 29, 2020 - Researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory and their collaborators from the University of California, Irvine have created fundamental electronic building blocks out of tiny structures known as quantum dots and used them to assemble functional logic circuits. The innovation promises a cheaper and manufacturing-friendly approach to complex electronic devices that can be fabricated in a chemistry laboratory via simple, solution-based techniques, and offer long-sought components for a host of innovative devices.

"Potential applications of the new approach to electronic devices based on non-toxic quantum dots include printable circuits, flexible displays, lab-on-a-chip diagnostics, wearable devices, medical testing, smart implants, and biometrics," said Victor Klimov, a physicist specializing in semiconductor nanocrystals at Los Alamos and lead author on a paper announcing the new results in the October 19 issue of Nature Communications.

For decades, microelectronics has relied on extra-high purity silicon processed in a specially created clean-room environment. Recently, silicon-based microelectronics has been challenged by several alternative technologies that allow for fabricating complex electronic circuits outside a clean room, via inexpensive, readily accessible chemical techniques. Colloidal semiconductor nanoparticles made with chemistry methods in much less stringent environments are one such emerging technology. Due to their small size and unique properties directly controlled by quantum mechanics, these particles are dubbed quantum dots.

A colloidal quantum dot consists of a semiconductor core covered with organic molecules. As a result of this hybrid nature, they combine the advantages of well-understood traditional semiconductors with the chemical versatility of molecular systems. These properties are attractive for realizing new types of flexible electronic circuits that could be printed onto virtually any surface including plastic, paper, and even human skin. This capability could benefit numerous areas including consumer electronics, security, digital signage and medical diagnostics.

A key element of electronic circuitry is a transistor that acts as a switch of electrical current activated by applied voltage. Usually transistors come in pairs of n- and p-type devices that control flows of negative and positive electrical charges, respectively. Such pairs of complementary transistors are the cornerstone of the modern CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor) technology, which enables microprocessors, memory chips, image sensors and other electronic devices.

The first quantum dot transistors were demonstrated almost two decades ago. However, integrating complementary n- and p-type devices within the same quantum dot layer remained a long-standing challenge. In addition, most of the efforts in this area have focused on nanocrystals based on lead and cadmium. These elements are highly toxic heavy metals, which greatly limits practical utility of the demonstrated devices.

The team of Los Alamos researchers and their collaborators from the University of California, Irvine have demonstrated that by using copper indium selenide (CuInSe2) quantum dots devoid of heavy metals they were able to address both the problem of toxicity and simultaneously achieve straightforward integration of n- and p-transistors in the same quantum dot layer. As a proof of practical utility of the developed approach, they created functional circuits that performed logical operations.

The innovation that Klimov and colleagues are presenting in their new paper allows them to define p- and n-type transistors by applying two different types of metal contacts (gold and indium, respectively). They completed the devices by depositing a common quantum dot layer on top of the pre-patterned contacts. "This approach permits straightforward integration of an arbitrary number of complementary p- and n-type transistors into the same quantum dot layer prepared as a continuous, un-patterned film via standard spin-coating," said Klimov.

New model treats decided voters as 'infected' and undecided voters as 'susceptible' to infection

Democratic and Republican 'diseases' propagate through a population, 'infecting' undecided voters

Model introduces the possibility of asymmetric relationships, or influence, among states

As of today (Oct. 29), the model forecasts a victory for Biden 89.03% of the time

EVANSTON, Ill. -- A new election forecasting approach uses mathematical modeling to describe how voters in different states may influence each other during an election year.

To simulate how interactions between voters may play a role in the upcoming presidential, gubernatorial and senatorial elections, a Northwestern University research team is adapting a model that is commonly used to study infectious diseases.

The model treats decided voters as "infected" and undecided voters as "susceptible" to infection. Two "diseases" (namely, Democratic and Republican voting inclinations) propagate through a population, "infecting" (or influencing) undecided individuals.

"Experts like the team at FiveThirtyEight account for the fact that, if you misidentify how Pennsylvania will vote, then you might also misidentify how Ohio will vote because those states have some similar features," said Northwestern's Alexandria Volkening, who leads the research. "Such symmetric relationships between states are important. Using a disease-transmission model, we also introduce the possibility of asymmetric relationships, or influence. For example, a candidate campaigning in Florida might be featured in the news in Ohio and influence the voters there."

The research published online yesterday in SIAM Review. Viewers can follow the 2020 forecast here.

Volkening is an NSF-Simons Fellow in Northwestern's NSF-Simons Center for Quantitative Biology and in the McCormick School of Engineering's Department of Engineering Sciences and Applied Mathematics. The paper's coauthors are Daniel Linder of Augusta University, Mason Porter of UCLA and Grzegorz Rempala of The Ohio State University. Their 2020 forecasts are in collaboration with Volkening's students (Samuel Chian, William He and Christopher Lee), who are undergraduates in the McCormick School of Engineering.

The project began when Volkening and her coauthors aimed to better understand election forecasting.

"My background is not in election forecasting," said Volkening, who often applies math to biological questions. "But I'm interested in problems in complex systems, where individuals come together to create group dynamics. Mathematical models can be used to describe the behavior of cells in developmental-biology applications and the interactions of voters leading up to elections."

Volkening and her team wanted to use a data-driven, mathematical modeling approach. They settled on adapting a so-called "susceptible-infected-susceptible" compartmental model that is typically used to study the propagation of illnesses such as the flu.

By adapting this model to account for two "diseases" (Democratic and Republican voting inclinations), the researchers simulated how decided voters may influence undecided voters. A Republican voter speaking to an undecided voter, for example, may influence them to become Republican. In another scenario, former Vice President Joe Biden could attend a campaign event that influences undecided voters.

"In the future, we may be able to tease out how states are influencing each other and pinpoint more influential states," Volkening said. "We'd like to explore how interactions among states change over time."

To generate each of their 2020 forecasts, the researchers use polling data from FiveThirtyEight to simulate 10,000 potential election outcomes. At the time of this article, the model forecasts a victory for Biden 89.03% of the time, and a victory for President Donald Trump 10.78% of the time.

"It's been exciting to run the model continuously over time," said He, a sophomore studying applied mathematics and statistics. "We don't just have a single forecast. We update our website regularly, so we can track how opinions are changing."

Although 89% may sound like Biden has a high chance of winning the election, Volkening is quick to point out that voter turnout and undecided voters could change this.

"In many states, the margin of victory that we are forecasting for Biden is lower than the percentage of undecided voters," she said. "If undecided voters turn out strongly for Trump, we could certainly see a Republican outcome."

HOUSTON - (Oct. 29, 2020) - Marrying two layers of graphene is an easy route to the blissful formation of nanoscale diamond, but sometimes thicker is better.

While it may only take a bit of heat to turn a treated bilayer of the ultrathin material into a cubic lattice of diamane, a bit of pressure in just the right place can convert few-layer graphene as well.

The otherwise chemically driven process is theoretically possible according to scientists at Rice University, who published their most recent thoughts on making high-quality diamane -- the 2D form of diamond -- in the journal Small.

The research led by materials theorist Boris Yakobson and his colleagues at Rice's Brown School of Engineering suggests a pinpoint of pressure on few-layer graphene, the atom-thin form of carbon known for its astonishing strength, can nucleate a surface chemical reaction with hydrogen or fluorine.

From there, the diamondlike lattice should propagate throughout the material as atoms of hydrogen or fluorine alight on the top and bottom and covalently bind to the surfaces, prompting carbon-carbon connections between the layers.

The pressure applied to that one spot -- as small as a few nanometers - is entirely unnecessary for a bilayer but is needed and must be progressively stronger for thicker films, Yakobson said. Making synthetic diamond from bulk graphite at industrial scale requires about 10-15 gigapascals, or 725,000 pounds per square inch, of pressure.

"Only at the nanoscale -- in this case, at nanometer thickness -- does it becomes possible for the surface chemistry alone to change the thermodynamics of the crystal, shifting the phase-change point from very high pressure to practically no pressure," he said.

Single-crystal diamond film for electronics is highly desirable. The material could be used as a hardened insulator or as a heat transducer for cooling nanoelectronics. It could be doped to serve as a wide band gap semiconductor in transistors, or as an element in optical applications.

Yakobson and his colleagues developed a phase diagram in 2014 to show how diamane might be thermodynamically feasible. There's still no easy way to make it, but the new work adds a critical component the earlier research lacked: a way to overcome the energetic barrier to nucleation that keeps the reaction in check.

"So far only bilayer graphene has been reproducibly converted into diamane, but through sheer chemistry," Yakobson said. "Combining it with a pinch of local pressure and the mechanochemistry it triggers seems like a promising path to be tried."

"In thicker films, the barrier rises quickly with the number of layers," added co-author and former Rice postdoctoral associate Pavel Sorokin. "External pressure can reduce this barrier, but chemistry and pressure must play together to deliver a 2D diamond."

Our biological processes rely on a system of communications -- cellular signals -- that set off chain reactions in and between target cells to produce a response. The first step in these often complex communications is the moment a molecule binds to a receptor on or in a cell, prompting changes that can trigger further signals that propagate across systems. From food tasting and blood oxygenation during breathing to drug therapy, receptor binding is the fundamental mechanism that unlocks a multitude of biological functions and responses.

UC Santa Barbara researchers in chemist Kevin Plaxco's lab are deeply interested in the mechanics of biomolecular receptors, which have great potential biotechnology applications, including the design of biosensors. In a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the researchers develop a modular design approach for tuning two important and typically opposing aspects of biomolecular receptor binding: affinity and cooperativity.

"There is a trade-off between cooperativity and affinity," said Gabriel Ortega, lead author of the study. This type of balancing act is common in nature, he added. "If you improve one property of a system, you're most likely making another property worse."

And so it is with cooperativity, a property related to the ability of multibinding site receptors to respond to small changes in the concentration of their target molecule. Same goes for affinity, the concentration of the target molecule that is required for it to bind its receptor -- related to the receptors' sensitivity to the smallest concentrations of target molecule.

Nature's Switch

"Nature wants to achieve very tight regulation of all processes that occur in the body," Ortega explained. For that to happen, our bodies need to be able to distinguish between small changes in the concentration of target molecules, he said, and, in the case of cooperative binding, mount a more dramatic, more "all-or-none" response to changes in concentration.

"The most typical example is hemoglobin binding oxygen," Ortega said. Carried by blood cells, these proteins have four binding sites for oxygen, which they gather as blood flows through the lungs.

The first binding event has the lowest affinity. "It acts like a gatekeeper, and it absorbs a lot of the signal," he said, "but once you occupy that lower affinity regime, the other sites, which have a higher affinity, bind more readily." He likens it to a system of connected pools where the first is the deepest and acts like a reservoir. Once it saturates, the rest fill up almost instantaneously.

"You want the hemoglobin to be able to completely capture the oxygen when it's in the lungs, and then completely release the oxygen when it's in the tissues," Ortega said, adding that many biological processes require such a digital-like response, in which receptors shuttle between nearly fully activated or nearly completely shut down in response to small changes in a signaling cue. Signals between brain and nerve cells operate this way, as do muscle cells.

Cooperative receptors are also of interest in biological engineering. For example, they can be used to improve the precision with which biosensors measure their targets (by steepening the curve relating output to target concentration), which can be very beneficial for pharmaceutical applications where some drugs, such as chemotherapies, feature a very narrow range between ineffective and toxic.

Here's the rub: To create that steeper, cooperative receptor, the first binding event has to have a low affinity, which means the overall affinity of the receptor site is lower than it would be if it were comprised only of its highest-affinity receptor. In areas like biosensing, this means the improved precision that comes with cooperativity is linked to an inability to detect the lowest concentrations of the target.

"If you make cooperativity better but it comes at the expense of pushing your detection capacity outside the window that you want to detect, then it's useless," Ortega said.

A Game of Averages

The researchers explored a way to sidestep this seesaw with a method that can increase both affinity and cooperativity in their aptamer-based biosensors, and allow biosensor designers to fine tune between cooperativity and affinity.

"If you add more high-affinity binding sites, then you're still improving your responsiveness because you're still improving cooperativity, but now your overall affinity is going to be closer to the highest affinity site, thus improving your sensitivity," Ortega said.

In the Plaxco Lab, aptamers -- single strands of DNA-- act as their multisite receptors, changing shape as they come into contact with target molecules (In this case, the chemotherapy drug doxorubicin). Two binding sites, one with low affinity and one with high affinity, produce a cooperative response with the overall affinity being the average of the two; a third high-affinity site pushes the average affinity higher while increasing cooperativity. The result? A sensor that can detect not only low doxorubicin concentrations but also minute changes in those concentrations.

Meanwhile, added Ortega, adding another low-affinity receptor can increase cooperativity even further, albeit at the cost of reducing affinity a bit more.

"You're always going to get progressively more cooperativity and more affinity (relative to fewer binding sites)," Ortega said. "And by playing with the affinity of each individual binding site you can tailor your system to any affinity-cooperativity combination in between."

The researchers plan to put their design to work to improve the aptamer-based sensors that they have already developed to detect clinically relevant molecules. They are moving toward in-vitro and in-vivo studies in which they deploy these sensors to detect the presence and concentration of target molecules in real-time. In addition, Ortega plans to use these new design principles to work in much more delicate and complex protein systems.

"I think that now that we have proof that these fundamental principles work, we can try to use them in proteins," he said.

Pyrite, or fool's gold, is a common mineral that reacts quickly with oxygen when exposed to water or air, such as during mining operations, and can lead to acid mine drainage. Little is known, however, about the oxidation of pyrite in unmined rock deep underground.

A new, multi-scale approach to studying pyrite oxidation deep underground suggests that fracturing and erosion at the surface set the pace of oxidation, which, when it occurs slowly, avoids runaway acidity and instead leaves behind iron oxide "fossils."

"Pyrite oxidation is a classic geologic and environmental problem, but we know little about the rate of pyrite oxidation occurring in deep rock," said Xin Gu, assistant research professor in Penn State's Earth and Environmental Systems Institute (EESI). "When pyrite reacts with oxygen, it releases sulfuric acid, which can cause acid mine drainage, a serious environmental problem across the globe and especially here in Pennsylvania."

When exposed to air, like in a mine, pyrite will fully oxidize in a matter of years, Gu said. Microorganisms can also form on the mineral and speed up the reaction. The oxidation process happens quickly and allows sulfuric acid to accumulate. However, if left unmined deep below the surface, geologic processes slow the reaction by tens of thousands of years and prevent the acid from accumulating.

The researchers studied pyrite oxidation at the National Science Foundation-funded Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (CZO). The Shale Hills CZO is a forested research site in Penn State's Stone Valley Forest that sits atop a shale formation, one of the most common rock types in the world. The researchers lowered geophysical logging tools -- instruments that can send and receive signals, or even take high-resolution images -- down boreholes 3-inches wide and recovered rocks from more than 100-feet deep to examine the shale bedrock and identify how deep or shallow pyrite weathers and fractures underground.

The team studied grains of pyrite and how they turn into rust-type iron oxides using specialized microscopes in Penn State's Material Characterization Laboratory. They cut the rock into slices less than one-tenth of an inch thick and placed the sections under scanning electron microscopes to image their microstructures. High-resolution transmission electron microscopes, which use beams of electrons to produce images, helped the researchers study the microstructures down to small features about 70 times thinner than a human hair.

Examining the samples allowed the researchers to identify the zone underground where pyrite oxidizes to a rust-type iron mineral at a very fine scale, Gu said.

The researchers reported their findings in a recent issue of Science.

The team found that the erosion rate of the shale controlled the rate of pyrite oxidation at depth. Microscopic fissures that form in the rock tens of feet below the surface are too small for microorganisms to enter. In landscapes like Pennsylvania's that erode over millennia, oxygen dissolved in water seeps into the openings and has plenty of time to catalyze the reaction, doing so in small quantities. When this occurs, the pyrite pseudomorphs, meaning that structurally it retains its raspberry-like shape even though chemically it has transformed from iron sulfide to iron oxide.

"The quantity and speed at which the reaction occurs underground explains why pyrite is replaced by these perfect iron oxide 'fossils,'" said Susan Brantley, distinguished professor of geosciences and director of EESI.

The researchers used their findings to develop a model to calculate pyrite oxidation rates at Shale Hills and across the globe, including in areas with faster erosion rates. It can also help scientists better understand what Earth was like before the Great Oxidation Event 2.4 billion years ago, which allowed more complex organisms to grow and evolve.

"What Xin did is extraordinary," Brantley said. "He showed that pyrite oxidizes 30 feet or more beneath the land surface to form crystals that are perfect replicas of the original pyrite grain. He also showed that this deeper understanding of pyrite can reveal information about why pyrite was still preserved at the land surface on the early Earth, when oxygen was present at lower concentrations in the atmosphere."

The Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory is the best place to conduct this type of work, according to Gu.

"We have experts from diverse fields who are working on different aspects of this watershed, like hydrology, erosion, soils, biota and weathering profiles," he said. "If we conducted the study at one scale or from one disciplinary perspective, we would have missed a large part of the story. Our interdisciplinary approach allows us to better understand what is happening here."

TORONTO, ON - An examination of two documented periods of climate change in the greater Middle East, between approximately 4,500 and 3,000 years ago, reveals local evidence of resilience and even of a flourishing ancient society despite the changes in climate seen in the larger region.

A new study led by University of Toronto and Cornell University archaeologists working at Tell Tayinat in southeastern Turkey, demonstrates that human responses to climate change are variable and must be examined using extensive and precise data gathered at the local level. The study highlights how challenge and collapse in some areas were matched by resilience and opportunities elsewhere.

The findings published today in PLoS ONE are welcome contributions to discussions about human responses to climate change that broaden an otherwise sparse chronological framework for the northern part of the region known historically as the Levant, which stretches the length of the eastern edge of the Mediterranean Sea.

"The study shows the end of the Early Bronze Age occupation at Tayinat was a long and drawn out affair that, while it appears to coincide with the onset of a megadrought 4,200 years ago, was actually the culmination of processes that began much earlier," says Tim Harrison, professor and chair of the Department of Near & Middle Eastern Civilizations in the Faculty of Arts & Science at the University of Toronto (U of T), and director of the Tayinat Archaeological Project. "The archaeological evidence does not point towards significant local effects of the climate episode, as there is no evidence of drought stress in crops."

"Instead, these changes were more likely the result of local political and spatial reconfiguration."

The mid-to late Early Bronze Age (3000-2000 BCE) and the Late Bronze Age (1600-1200 BCE) in the ancient Middle East are pivotal periods of early inter-connectedness among settlements across the region, with the development of some of the earliest cities and state-level societies. But these systems were not always sustainable, and both periods ended in collapse of civilisations/settlements, the reasons for which are highly debated.

The absence of detailed timelines for societal activity throughout the region leaves a significant gap in understanding the associations between climate change and social responses. While the disintegration of political or economic systems are indeed components of a societal response, collapse is rarely total.

Using radiocarbon dating and analysis of archaeological samples recovered from Tell Tayinat, a location occupied following two particularly notable climate change episodes 4,200 and again 3,200 years ago, the Toronto-Cornell team established a robust chronological timeframe for Tayinat for these two pivotal periods in the history of the ancient Middle East.

"The absolute dating of these periods has been a subject of considerable debate for many years, and this study contributes a significant new dataset that helps address many of the questions," says Sturt Manning, Goldwin Smith Professor of Classical Archaeology in the Department of Classics at Cornell University's College of Arts & Sciences, and lead author of the study.

"The detailed chronological resolution achieved in this study allows for a more substantive interpretation of the archaeological evidence in terms of local and regional responses to proposed climate change, shedding light on how humans respond to environmental stress and variability."

The researchers say the chronological framework for the Early Iron Age demonstrates the thriving re-settlement of Tayinat following the 3,200 years ago event during a reconstructed period of heightened aridity.

"The settlement of Tayinat may have been undertaken to maximize access to arable land, and crop evidence reveals the continued cultivation of numerous water-demanding crops, revealing a response that counters the picture of a drought-stricken region," says Harrison. "The Iron Age at Tayinat represents a significant degree of societal resilience during a period of climatic stress."

LUGANO, 29 October, 2020 - Disruptive innovations in psoriasis are leading the way at EADV's 29th Congress, EADV Virtual. New data published today shows the first clinical evidence of modulating systemic inflammation by oral delivery of a non-living single strain commensal microbe. This new therapeutic class brings hope for a completely new way of treating this debilitating skin condition (1).

The phase 1b clinical study, by Evelo Biosciences, evaluated EDP1815, a preparation of a non-living single strain of the bacterium Prevotella histicola, isolated from the small intestine of a human donor, in two cohorts of 12 and 18 patients with mild to moderate psoriasis for 28 days, with follow-up off treatment through 42 days. EDP1815 is an orally-delivered investigational therapy that is being developed for treatment of inflammatory diseases but has never been used for a human disease before.

The small intestine plays a central role in governing the body's immune, metabolic and neurological systems. When the oral microbe is administered, it interacts with a network of connections between the small intestine and the rest of the body, creating a systemic therapeutic immune response, without being absorbed into the body. This physiological mechanism of control has not been shown to cause any immune suppression, further reducing the risk of side-effects such as infections.

Early results showed that EDP1815 was well tolerated at daily doses of up to 8.0x101 cells administered for up to 28 days, with a tolerability profile comparable to placebo, with no serious adverse effects reported. At day 28, the mean percentage reduction in Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI) score for both EDP1815 cohorts was 16%, compared to 1% for placebo; with a further improvement to 21% in the high-dose cohort at day 42, but not the low dose cohort (10%) or placebo cohorts (3%). This is indicative of sustained and ongoing clinical effect at the higher dose. The mean reduction in Lesion Severity Scores (LSS) at 28 days were 15% and 23% in the high- and low-dose cohorts, respectively, compared to a 1% increase from baseline in the placebo group. Again, further clinical improvement, to a 24% reduction, was seen in the high-dose cohort.

Dr Douglas Maslin, Dermatologist and Pharmacologist at Addenbrooke's Hospital in Cambridge, UK working on secondment with Evelo Biosciences explains: "Although several treatments options are available for psoriasis patients with the most severe disease, there is a great need for new innovative methods for those living with mild-moderate disease. I decided to work with Evelo Biosciences after seeing the huge potential in EDP1815 and its oral mechanism of action. It is a real breakthrough, especially as we have seen from the pre-clinical and phase I trials that it was well tolerated with no overall difference from placebo and with no severe side effects reported. We are extremely encouraged to see that these data support further clinical development of EDP1815 in psoriasis. We are already in phase II clinical trials across the UK, Poland and US. This is a potentially massive win for the majority of psoriasis patients, as it has the potential to improve treatment options and perhaps change the current standard of care."

New guidelines and promising treatments in psoriasis at EADV Virtual

This year's EADV Virtual, which launches on World Psoriasis Day, will showcase some of the cutting-edge innovations and trends in psoriasis and key updates in the field. Today, this includes a presentation from Professor Dr Rolland Gyulai from Hungary, who will be sharing the new 2020 European and US guidelines and discussing the latest clinical trials and where there is still a place for classical systemic treatments (2).

Also, Associate Professor Eniko Sonkoly from the Department of Medicine Solna, Karolinska Institute/ Karolinska University Hospital Solna in Sweden, will be presenting a review of the existing and upcoming pipeline of small molecules that show great potential in managing and treating the condition (3). Professor Sonkoly explains: "Although there are many effective biologics, they are not suitable for all patients with psoriasis. There is a need for new oral and topical treatments with favourable safety profiles that can benefit mild, moderate and severe patients, improving their quality of life. Small molecules have the advantage of being suitable for both oral and topical delivery and have the potential to improve available treatment options."

Drugs prescribed to high-risk stroke patients are costing the NHS hundreds of millions each year - but they are so effective, the service is actually saving money.

Analysis of stroke data showed that the cost to NHS England of prescribing direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) increased by £733m from 2011 to 2017, but resulted in a substantial 11% reduction in stroke cases. This reduction in the number of strokes, and the related expenses, means the cost of treating a patient in the first year after a stroke has dropped by 25%.

Researchers from the Health Economics Unit and University of Leeds looked at the cost of treating strokes in 2011-2014 and compared it with that in 2014-2017, after DOACs were added to the recommended drugs for treating the most common type of strokes.

In the paper, published on World Stroke Day in Heart Journal the researchers found that prescribing costs for atrial fibrillation (AF) had risen £149 per year per patient - but due to their effectiveness in preventing strokes, care costs, included stroke aftercare, fell by £289 per patient.

The drugs were prescribed to patients with AF, a common condition affecting around 2% of the population.

Patients with AF are five times more likely to suffer a stroke. The condition is believed to cause around a third of the most common type of stroke - ischaemic stroke - and to increase the severity.

The cost of prescribing DOACs is estimated at 5% of the overall drug budget in England, but studies have shown they are cost-effective and should be made available to patients, particularly as AF becomes more prevalent in the ageing population.

Chris Gale, Professor of Cardiovascular Medicine, Consultant Cardiologist and co-author from the University of Leeds, said: "Despite an increase in the use of DOACs for the prevention of stroke in people with AF, there remain notable gaps in the use of these drugs. This is important because these drugs reduced the risk of stroke.

"But DOACS are expensive, and their costs may be a barrier to their use in the NHS.

"We found that the total costs of oral anticoagulant between 2014 and 2017 was huge, but because they were associated with a reduction in stroke, there was a per-patient saving to the NHS."

Andi Orlowski from the Health Economics Unit, an NHS analytics organisation, said: "Across the study period there was nearly a doubling of the number of people being treated with oral anticoagulant, primarily driven by DOAC. This amazing increase in the numbers receiving treatment reduced stroke by 11% and understandably came with a significant budget impact. We must remember that all oral nticoagulants are cost effective and the cost per person treated, when taking in to account the costs associated with managing stroke, reduced by nearly £290 a head.

"There is still work to do to ensure everyone at risk of an AF related stroke who wants an OAC receives one but this study shows the huge improvement the NHS has made in the last few years."

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) are two major subcomponents of the Asian summer monsoon. The monsoon rainfall is the life-blood of more than half the world's population. A better understanding of the ISM and WNPSM variability is of vital importance both in a socio-economic and scientific sense.

In a recent study published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2020.1806683), the authors, from Guangdong Ocean University, quantitatively examined and compared the intensity of the interannual variability (IIV) of the monsoon and monsoon-ENSO biennial relationship (MEBR) for both the ISM and WNPSM.

"Our results reveal interesting multidecadal seesaw patterns of the ISM and WNPSM in terms of their IIV and MEBR, which could be triggered by the increasing influences from the tropical Atlantic Ocean," says Dr. WANG Lei, the corresponding author of this study.

Out-of-phase covariability was observed between the ISM and WNPSM. When the IIV and MEBR of the ISM were strong (weak) before (after) the mid-1980s, the IIV and MEBR of the WNPSM tended to be weak (strong). During the period with a stronger ENSO-Atlantic (ENSO-Indian Ocean) coupling, the IIV and MEBR of the WNPSM (ISM) were observed to be stronger. The increasing influences from the tropical Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) could exert different influences on the ISM and WNPSM, leading to changes in opposite signs of the two monsoons in terms of IIV and MEBR. Increasing influences from the tropical Atlantic SST may be related to its persistent warming trend due to combined effects from the global warming trend and the recent phase change of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.

"These results imply that tropical Atlantic SST may need to be given more attention when predicting future monsoon variability of the ISM and WNPSM," concludes Dr. WANG. "More studies are needed in the future to better understand the inter-basin interactions among the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins, and their interdecadal changes, which may be the key to understanding the recent climate variability."

A team of researchers have tested everything from t-shirts and socks to jeans and vacuum bags to determine what type of mask material is most effective at trapping the ultrafine particles which may contain viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19.

The researchers, from the University of Cambridge and Northwestern University, tested the effectiveness of different fabrics at filtering particles between 0.02 and 0.1 micrometres - about the size of most viruses - at high speeds, comparable to coughing or heavy breathing. They also tested N95 and surgical masks, which are more commonly used in healthcare settings.

Previous studies have only looked at a small selection of fabrics when the wearer is breathing normally, when particles are expelled at lower speed. Studying more fabrics and testing them at higher speeds provides a more robust evidence base for the effectiveness of fabric masks.

The results, reported in the journal BMJ Open, show that most of the fabrics commonly used for non-clinical face masks are effective at filtering ultrafine particles. N95 masks were highly effective, although a reusable HEPA vacuum bag actually exceeded the N95 performance in some respects.

As for homemade masks, those made of multiple layers of fabric were more effective, and those which also incorporated interfacing, which is normally used to stiffen collars, showed a significant improvement in performance. However, this improvement in performance also made them more difficult to breathe through than an N95 mask.

The researchers also studied the performance of different fabrics when damp, and after they had gone through a normal washing and drying cycle. They found that the fabrics worked well while damp and worked sufficiently after one laundry cycle, however previous studies have shown that repeated washing degrades the fabrics, and the researchers caution that masks should not be reused indefinitely.

"Fabric masks have become a new necessity for many of us since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic," said first author Eugenia O'Kelly from Cambridge's Department of Engineering. "In the early stages of the pandemic, when N95 masks were in extremely short supply, many sewers and makers started making their own fabric masks, meeting the demands that couldn't be met by supply chains, or to provide a more affordable option."

While there are numerous online resources which help people make their own masks, there is little scientific evidence on what the most suitable materials are.

"There was an initial panic around PPE and other types of face masks, and how effective they were," said O'Kelly. "As an engineer, I wanted to learn more about them, how well different materials worked under different conditions, and what made for the most effective fit."

For the current study, O'Kelly and her colleagues built an apparatus consisting of sections of tubing, with a fabric sample in the middle. Aerosolised particles were generated at one end of the apparatus, and their levels were measured before and after they passed through the fabric sample at a speed similar to coughing.

The researchers also tested how well each fabric performed in terms of breathing resistance, based on qualitative feedback from users. "A mask which blocks particles really well but restricts your breathing isn't an effective mask," said O'Kelly. "Denim, for example, was quite effective at blocking particles, but it's difficult to breathe through, so it's probably not a good idea to make a mask out of an old pair of jeans. N95 masks are much easier to breathe through than any fabric combinations with similar levels of filtration."

In preparation for the study, the researchers consulted with online sewing communities to find out what types of fabric they were using to make masks. Due to the severe shortage of N95 masks at the time, several of the sewers reported that they were experimenting with inserting vacuum bags with HEPA filters into masks.

The researchers found that single-use and reusable vacuum bags were effective at blocking particles, but caution that the single-use bags should not be used in face masks, as they fall apart when cut, and may contain component materials which are unsafe to inhale.

"It's a matter of finding the right balance - we want the materials to be effective at filtering particles, but we also need to know they don't put users at risk of inhaling fibres or lint, which can be harmful," said O'Kelly.

The researchers caution that their study has several limitations: namely, that they did not look at the role which fit plays in filtering particles. In a related project, O'Kelly has been studying how the fit of masks in healthcare settings can be improved. In addition, many viruses are carried on droplets which are larger than those looked at in the current study.

However, O'Kelly says the results may be useful for sewers and makers when choosing which fabric to use for making masks. "We've shown that in an emergency situation where N95 masks are not available, such as in the early days of this pandemic, fabric masks are surprisingly effective at filtering particles which may contain viruses, even at high speeds."