Culture

New research due to be presented at this year's European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ECCMID)* has identified genetically identical multidrug-resistant bacteria in humans and their pets, suggesting human-animal transfer is possible in this context. However only a small number of cases were found, suggesting this is not a major source of antibiotic-resistant infections in humans. The study is by Carolin Hackmann, Institute for Hygiene and Environmental Medicine, Charité - University Hospital Berlin, Germany, and colleagues.

The project behind this study is investigating the relevance of pet care in the infection of hospital patients with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) since the potential role of pets as reservoirs of MDROs remains unclear. The project focusses on the most common MDROs in pet owners: methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE), 3rd generation cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales (3GCRE) and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE). The study is being performed at Charité - University Hospital Berlin, and is funded by the Federal Department of Health (BMG).

To assess the contact to household pets as a risk factor for the colonisation with one of the above-named pathogens, the authors asked the pet owners questions about well-known risk factors and their contact to dogs and cats. This includes information about the number of pets in the household, the closeness of contact and diseases as well as medical treatment of the pets.

To assess the genetic relationship between the human and pet MDROs, the researchers collected nasal and rectal swabs of the participants in the hospital and their pets to test them for MDROs. Phenotypically matching MDROs in the samples of participants and their pets were tested for genetic relationship using whole genome sequencing (WGS).

Among the first 1,500 participants, 495 participants (33%) tested positive for MDROs. In total, 296 participants (20%) owned at least 1 pet (range 1-5 pets), and 38% of these owners (112) tested positive for MDROs. There was no significant difference in the proportion of pet owners between cases and controls. Further analysis of factors concerning the health status of pets and closeness of contact to pets also showed no significant differences between cases and controls.

So far in this ongoing study, samples of 77 dogs and 71 cats from 112 pet owners have been analysed. Among these, 14% of pets (23 dogs and 1 cat) tested positive for one MDRO each. In two cases, MDROs of a dog and its owner were phenotypically matching. The matching pathogens were VR Enterococcus faecium and 3GCR Escherichia coli. The genetic analysis based on a gene-by-gene comparison approach confirmed that the matching pairs were genotypically identical in dog and owner.

The authors conclude: "This analysis of preliminary data showed no significant difference in pet care or closeness of contact to pets between MDRO-positive and MDRO-negative hospital patients. A transmission of MDROs between human and animal was confirmed in only 1.8% of 112 pet owners and their respective pets. So far, the preliminary data does not indicate pet care as a significant risk factor for MDRO colonisation in hospital patients."

Irvine, Calif., April 20, 2020 - Though mighty, the Milky Way and galaxies of similar mass are not without scars chronicling turbulent histories. University of California, Irvine astronomers and others have shown that clusters of supernovas can cause the birth of scattered, eccentrically orbiting suns in outer stellar halos, upending commonly held notions of how star systems have formed and evolved over billions of years.

Hyper-realistic, cosmologically self-consistent computer simulations from the Feedback in Realistic Environments 2 project enabled the scientists to model the disruptions in otherwise orderly galactic rotations. The team's work is the subject of a study published today in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

"These highly accurate numerical simulations have shown us that it's likely the Milky Way has been launching stars in circumgalactic space in outflows triggered by supernova explosions," said senior author James Bullock, dean of UCI's School of Physical Sciences and a professor of physics & astronomy. "It's fascinating, because when multiple big stars die, the resulting energy can expel gas from the galaxy, which in turn cools, causing new stars to be born."

Bullock said the diffuse distribution of stars in the stellar halo that extends far outside the classical disk of a galaxy is where the "archeological record" of the system exists. Astronomers have long assumed that galaxies are assembled over lengthy periods of time as smaller star groupings come in and are dismembered by the larger body, a process that ejects some stars into distant orbits. But the UCI team is proposing "supernova feedback" as a different source for as many as 40 percent of these outer-halo stars.

Lead author Sijie Yu, a UCI Ph.D. candidate in physics, said the findings were made possible partly by the availability of a powerful new set of tools.

"The FIRE-2 simulations allow us to generate movies that make it seem as though you're observing a real galaxy," she noted. "They show us that as the galaxy center is rotating, a bubble driven by supernova feedback is developing with stars forming at its edge. It looks as though the stars are being kicked out from the center."

Bullock said he did not expect to see such an arrangement because stars are such tight, incredibly dense balls that are generally not subject to being moved relative to the background of space. "Instead, what we're witnessing is gas being pushed around," he said, "and that gas subsequently cools and makes stars on its way out."

The researchers said that while their conclusions have been drawn from simulations of galaxies forming, growing and evolving to the present day, there is actually a fair amount of observational evidence that stars are forming in outflows from galactic centers to their halos.

"In plots that compare data from the European Space Agency's Gaia mission - which provides a 3D velocity chart of stars in the Milky Way - with other maps that show stellar density and metallicity, we can see structures similar to those produced by outflow stars in our simulations," Yu said.

Bullock added that mature, heavier, metal-rich stars like our sun rotate around the center of the galaxy at a predictable speed and trajectory. But the low-metallicity stars, which have been subjected to fewer generations of fusion than our sun, can be seen rotating in the opposite direction.

He said that over the lifespan of a galaxy, the number of stars produced in supernova bubble outflows is small, around 2 percent. But during the parts of galaxies' histories when starburst events are booming, as many as 20 percent of stars are being formed this way.

"There are some current projects looking at galaxies that are considered to be very 'starbursting' right now," Yu said. "Some of the stars in these observations also look suspiciously like they're getting ejected from the center."

Physical fitness and social connection can be difficult to maintain in old age. But new research published in Frontiers in Psychology shows that Dance Movement Therapy (DMT) may promote exercise, improve quality of life and deepen familial ties between grandparents and grandchildren.

In a study at the Kibbutzim College and University of Haifa in Israel, sixteen dance movement therapists met with their grandmothers for three free-form dance sessions. The goal was to determine how these sessions would affect each group, and whether intergenerational bonds might strengthen as a result. The study also wanted to examine a potential low-cost method to treat issues commonly faced by an aging population, such as depressed mood and limited mobility.

"The increase of the proportion of elderly in the population, along with the increase in the age group of adult grandchildren necessitates creativity and innovation in providing diverse resources and support," says author Dr. Einat Shuper Engelhard.

Shuper Engelhard analyzed taped videos of the sessions, personal diaries, and semi-structured interviews between granddaughters and grandmothers to analyze the effect of DMT. She found that for grandmothers, dancing promoted positive feelings and improved mood. For granddaughters, dancing shifted their perspective of aging and allowed them to process their grandparent's eventual death. Both groups expressed gratitude and felt their bond was stronger after the sessions.

Dance was chosen as a unique and versatile intervention since it can improve muscle strength, balance, and endurance, prevent anxiety and depression, and aid with dementia -- all issues commonly faced among the elderly population. It also offers a model for low-cost and accessible community support.

Each of the three sessions was conducted one week apart and took place in the grandmother's home for just 10 to 15 minutes. Granddaughters were nervous at first over their ability to provide a meaningful experience, but were instructed to mirror their grandmother's movements, encourage their abilities, and give them space to rest when needed.

Shuper Engelhard says that familiarity was key to the intervention's success. The sessions "promoted physical activity even when the body was fatigued and weak," Shuper Engelhard says. "This emphasizes the significance of the close and familiar relationship as a means to promote new experiences (which can occasionally seem impossible) for the older person."

The study was limited in its scope as only 32 individuals participated (16 grandmother-granddaughter pairs) and, while the study was open to grandchildren of all genders, all participants were female. Moreover, all granddaughters in this study were dance/movement therapists by design, but Shuper Engelhard would like to see the research replicated in other populations.
With an activity as simple and accessible as free-form dancing, aging populations can improve their physical and mental health and also connect with their loved ones.

The archaeological record is littered with feces, a potential goldmine for insights into ancient health and diet, parasite evolution, and the ecology and evolution of the microbiome. The main problem for researchers is determining whose feces is under examination. A recent study published in the journal PeerJ, led by Maxime Borry and Christina Warinner of Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History (MPI-SHH), presents "CoproID: a reliable method of inferring sources of paleofeces."

Machine learning enables reliable classification

After thousands of years, the source of a particular piece of feces can be difficult to determine. Distinguishing human and dog feces is particularly difficult: they are similar in size and shape, occur at the same archaeological sites, and have similar compositions. In addition, dogs were on the menu for many ancient societies, and our canine friends have a tendency to scavenge on human feces, thus making simple genetic tests problematic, as such analyses can return DNA from both species.

In order to access the insights contained within paleofeces, the researchers developed coproID (coprolite identification). The method combines analysis of ancient host DNA with a machine learning software trained on the microbiomes within modern feces. Applying coproID to both newly sequenced and previously published datasets, the team of researchers from the MPI-SHH, Harvard University, and the University of Oklahoma were able to reliably predict the sources of ancient feces, showing that a combination of host DNA and the distinct colonies of microbes living inside humans and dogs allow their feces to be accurately distinguished.

Classification capability provides insights into digestive health

"One unexpected finding of our study is the realization that the archaeological record is full of dog poop," says Professor Christina Warinner, senior author of the study. But Warinner also expects coproID to have broader applications, especially in the fields of forensics, ecology, and microbiome sciences.

The ability to accurately identify the source of archaeological feces enables the direct investigation of changes in the structure and function of the human gut microbiome throughout time, which researchers hope will provide insights into food intolerances and a host of other issues in human health. "Identifying human coprolites should be the first step for ancient human microbiome analysis," says the study's first author, Maxime Borry.

"With additional data about the gut metagenomes of non-Westernized rural dogs, we'll be better able to classify even more ancient dog feces as in fact being canine, as opposed to 'uncertain,'" Borry adds. As the catalog of human and dog microbiome data grows, coproID will continue to improve its classifications and better aid researchers that encounter paleofeces in a range of geographic and historical contexts.

New research to be presented at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ECCMID)* shows that it is safe to give antibiotics to mothers after umbilical cord clamping in Caesarean section, rather than before, to avoid exposure of the newborn baby to these drugs. The study is by Dr Rami Sommerstein, Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and colleagues from Swissnoso, the Swiss National Centre for Infection Control.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends** administration of surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis (SAP) in Caesarean section prior to incision to prevent surgical site infections (SSIs), including endometritis, one of the most common types of these infections. However, SAP may disrupt the baby's developing gastrointestinal microbiome if given before umbilical cord clamping. The authors thus studied whether giving antibiotics before or after clamping of the umbilical cord had any effect on the rate of SSIs in the mothers.

The current practice to give antimicrobial prophylaxis before incision was introduced in around 2012, after various evidence was published, and this was when many obstetricians switched to 'before incision' practice. WHO then published guidance in 2015. However, not all hospitals switched to the new practice (in Switzerland or other countries). As a result, it is possible to compare the outcomes of women who were given the antibiotics before incision with those given antibiotics after.

The study used data from the Swissnoso national SSI surveillance system, from 2009 to 2018. The study included mothers from 178 hospitals. The researchers included all Caesarean section patients that were given the SAP agents cefuroxime, cefazolin, amoxicillin/clavulanate or ceftriaxone, either within 60 minutes before incision or after clamping. Data from 30-day post-discharge follow-up was available in 89% of cases, allowing the researchers to assess the association between SAP administration relative to incision and clamping and the SSI rate, using computer models. The data was then adjusted for patient characteristics, procedural variables, and health-care system factors.

A total of 55,901 patients met the criteria: SAP was administered before incision in 26,405 patients (47.2%) and after clamping in 29,496 patients (52.8%). Overall, 846 SSIs were documented, of which 379 (1.6%) occurred before incision and 449 (1.7%) after clamping, with no statistically significant difference between the two methods, proving them to be equally safe. Supplementary and subgroup analyses supported these main results.

The authors conclude: "The results of this large prospective study provide strong evidence that the risk of surgical site infection for the mother in Caesarean section is not increased if antibiotic prophylaxis is given after umbilical cord clamping, compared to before incision. Given the latest research on the potentially detrimental effects of early-life antimicrobial exposure, guidance regarding optimal SAP timing should be re-evaluated."

New research due to be presented at this year's European Congress on Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ECCMID)* has revealed the presence of disease-causing E. coli in recreational waters, including from beaches rated excellent under EU criteria. The study is led by Prof. Dearbháile Morris and Dr. Louise O'Connor at the School of Medicine, National University of Ireland Galway, Ireland.

E. coli are part of the normal gut flora of humans and animals, but not all E. coli are exactly the same. Some E. coli can produce toxins that can cause serious infection in humans. Shiga -toxigenic E. coli (STEC) are pathogenic E. coli that can cause severe intestinal infection and potentially renal failure and death. Ireland has had the highest incidence rate for human infection with STEC among EU member states for many years, reporting 10 times the EU average in 2017 (see link below for European data). This research looked at recreational waters for the presence of STEC.

Seawater, river and lake samples were collected around Ireland between December 2018 and October 2019 and examined for genetic markers of STEC. Of the 75 samples tested, 49 (65%) were positive for the presence of STEC genetic markers, including 29/52 (56%) seawater samples, 14/15 (93%) river samples and 6/8 (75%) lake samples.

Professor Morris says: "To our knowledge this is the first investigation of recreational waters across Ireland for the presence of STEC. There was a high occurrence of genetic markers for STEC in the samples tested, highlighting the need for further investigation to establish the scale of the problem, not only in Ireland but globally."

She adds: "It is worth noting that all of the bathing waters tested were designated as of good or excellent quality based on current EU bathing water quality monitoring criteria. Bathing water quality is assessed based on estimating the total number of E. coli in a 100ml sample over a defined time-period (May to September). Bathing waters in Europe and elsewhere are not routinely monitored for the presence of STEC. This study highlights the limitations of only assessing the total number of E. coli present as an indicator of water quality without taking into consideration the potential pathogenicity of some variants."

Elderly patients who are hospitalised with pneumonia are twice as likely to die as those hospitalised with hip fractures - yet many elderly people fail to accurately assess their risk of pneumonia, concludes research due to be presented at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ECCMID).* The study is by Dr Leslie Grammatico-Guillon, University of Tours, France, and colleagues.

Pneumonia is a common lung infection that can be life-threatening, especially in elderly people. Despite these concerns, elderly people mostly fail to accurately gauge their own pneumonia risk, leading to inadequate prevention efforts, especially low uptake of existing vaccines. The mismatch between the high risk of disease and death from pneumonia and low awareness of its potential severity represent a driver of unhealthy ageing.

On the contrary, breaking a hip (and the risk of any type of fall) is widely recognised as a major concern for the elderly. To change this trivialisation of pneumonia in the elderly and help increase vaccination uptake, the authors compared 2-year outcomes for elderly patients aged 80 years and over after hospitalisation for acute respiratory infection (which covered all pneumonias, ARI) or hip fracture (HF).

A 2009-15 population-based cohort study was performed in one French region (Centre-Val de Loire, 2.5 million inhabitants), which is served by one university hospital, one regional hospital and 37 general and private hospitals, using medico-administrative data collected from the French national hospital discharge database. All patients are assigned a unique identification number, allowing the same individual to be followed over time. The researchers defined cases of patients aged 80 years or over hospitalised for ARI or HF using standard diagnostic criteria. The main outcome was the 2-year mortality of the two patient groups. Statistical modelling was used to calculate the overall survival and the relative mortality risks of ARI versus HF.

A total of 16,917 patients aged 80 years and over hospitalised for ARI (n=12,159) or HF (n=4,758) were included. The data showed that patients hospitalised for ARI had more comorbidities and a 3.3-fold greater unadjusted in-hospital mortality (17.9% mortality for respiratory infection and 5.4% for hip fracture). After adjusting for comorbid conditions and frailty score (as well as age and sex), the overall risk of death at two years for elderly patients hospitalised for ARI was 80% higher than those hospitalised with HF.

The authors conclude: "We hope that placing the consequences of pneumonia in relation to the consequences of a hip fracture may provide useful perspective for discussions of pneumonia and its prevention with aging populations. The population, but also their caregivers and clinical practitioners, should be more aware of the risk from this disease. Better recognition will improve the prevention of pneumonia by increasing uptake of vaccines, such as influenza and pneumococcus."

The World Institute of Kimchi (hereinafter "WiKim") (Acting Director Dr. Choi, Hak-Jong) announced that it had identified the origin source of lactic acid bacteria involved in the fermentation of kimchi and the characteristics of the fermentation process depending on the strains of lactic acid bacteria.

Kimchi, a traditional Korean fermented vegetable food, is fermented by lactic acid bacteria derived from raw ingredients, such as kimchi cabbage, garlic, ginger, and red pepper. Lactic acid bacteria produce various metabolites during fermentation in response to the type of ingredients and storage temperature, and the metabolites determine the flavor and quality of kimchi.

Controlling complicated fermentation processes involving microorganisms present in kimchi is still a scientific and industrial challenge. Although the raw ingredients for kimchi have been recognized as one of the important environmental factors influencing the fermentation of kimchi, only a few studies have been conducted regarding the origin source of lactic acid bacteria responsible for kimchi fermentation and the different fermentation characteristics depending on the species of lactic acid bacteria.

WiKim's Microbiology and Functionality Research Group led by Dr. Roh, Seong Woon analyzed the origin source of lactic acid bacteria that directly affect the fermentation of kimchi through multi-omics analysis after selectively sterilizing four ingredients for kimchi, namely kimchi cabbage, garlic, ginger, and red pepper.

* Multi-omics is a holistic and integrated analysis of various data sets created at different molecular levels, such as genomes, transcriptomes, proteomes, metabolites, ipidomes, etc. This study accompanied metataxonomic and meta-metabolomic analysis.

According to the analysis, the fermentation was carried out by lactic acid bacteria indigenous to kimchi cabbage and garlic, not by microorganisms derived from ginger and red pepper, among the raw materials for kimchi.

Kimchi fermented by kimchi cabbage-derived microorganisms showed that the strains of in the genus Leuconostoc, Weissella, and Lactobacillus formed dominant communities. On the other hand, in case of kimchi fermented by microorganisms from garlic, the strains of in the Leuconostoc and Weissella, were dominant. These lactic acid bacteria were also confirmed to produce metabolites, such as mannitol and lactic acid.

Furthermore, the research group succeeded in isolating three major fermentative microbes involved in kimchi fermentation, which are specific to the ingredients: Leuconostoc gelidum, Weissella koreensis, and Lactobacillus sakei. It confirmed that kimchi was fermented differently depending on the species of lactic acid bacteria aforementioned by introducing them into sterilized kimchi.

In conclusion, this study identified the origin source of lactic acid bacteria, the determinants of the fermentation of kimchi, and the fermentation characteristics by bacteria derived from each ingredient. Therefore, these results will be utilized as scientific data for the production of standardized kimchi.

WiKim's Acting Director Dr. Choi, Hak-Jong remarked, "We've successfully figured out scientific grounds for the fermentation of kimchi by tracing the origin source of lactic acid bacteria involved in the fermentation. This will surely give us an opportunity to strengthen the status of South Korea as the origin of kimchi."

The information of the territory provided by the laser technology from an airplane can be combined with data collected in mountain lakes with an inflatable boat and a small echo sounder to obtain three-dimensional maps. The system has been successfully tested by two geologists at the Truchillas glacial lake in Spain.

Scientists studying mountain lakes, often located in remote areas that are difficult to access, are faced with the problem of climbing with heavy and costly equipment. Helicopters are often essential.

But now, geologists Javier Fernández-Lozano, from the University of León (Spain), and Rodrigo Andrés-Bercianos, from the León Technology Park, have presented a very simple, low-cost methodology for obtaining high-resolution three-dimensional models of lake bottoms.

It only requires a 250-gram echo sounder and the so-called LiDAR detection data, which are collected from an airplane with laser technology. In the case of Spain, they are provided free of charge through the National Aerial Orthophotography Plan.

The new technique has been successfully implemented in the Truchillas Lake, of glacial origin, a natural monument of the Castile and León region located in the southwest of the province of León, and the results have been published in Quaternary International.

"With a 7-kg inflatable boat we have made several transects across the lake to take the measurements with the echo sounder," explains Fernández-Lozano. "Then, using a software, the point cloud obtained was combined with LiDAR data, which allowed us to generate the topographic and bathymetric (depth) 3D model in high-resolution."

According to the authors, these digital models help to better study and monitor high mountain lake ecosystems, as well as to manage them more effectively within a protected area. Their detailed analysis makes it possible, for example, to assess the impacts of tourism and natural degradation as a result of erosion or other geological processes.

In the case of Lake Truchillas, the 3D map has allowed us to find out that the lake basin is older than we thought. Its origin is linked to a fault system that is responsible for the abrupt topography of the area, where glacial activity subsequently closed the basin and formed this lake with a maximum depth of 13.3 metres.

"The combined use of the portable bathymetric sonar and airborne laser technology will make it possible to study high mountain lakes in an integrated way, even if they are located in remote places anywhere in the world, as well as help to improve conservation and management plans for natural areas," concludes Fernández-Lozano.

Thousands of cancer patients in the UK have had their treatment stopped or delayed because of COVID-19, and with pressures mounting on the health service, Cancer Research UK calls for widespread testing to prevent unnecessary cancer deaths.*

The global pandemic has caused enormous disruption to cancer services across the country including delays to cancer treatment, screening and diagnosis, and profound decreases in patients being urgently referred to hospital with suspected cancer symptoms.**

In some cases, already overstretched NHS staff are being directed away from cancer care, towards caring for COVID-19 patients. And in other cases, where a cancer patient might have a weakened immune system as a result of cancer treatment, it may not be safe for them to go to hospital.

The NHS is working tirelessly and has been forced to make difficult decisions during an unprecedented time. They have committed to prioritising cancer care, but Cancer Research UK is concerned that the NHS will not be able to cope with the large backlog of cancer care needed as services reopen, unless steps are taken to plan for the future, including COVID-19 testing.

The NHS in England is developing 'COVID-free' centres and hospitals which will be the key to ensuring that the most urgent cancer patients can receive their treatment quickly, but this will only be possible with widescale and frequent testing of NHS staff and patients.

Although some patients are being tested for COVID-19, testing in some areas is reserved for those who are seriously ill. The concern is that a number of people with the virus may be infectious to others before they show symptoms, so for a hospital to be truly safe to treat cancer patients, we need rapid testing available for all staff and patients, whether showing symptoms of COVID-19 or not, occurring on a routine and repetitive basis.

NHS staff testing for COVID-19 has been boosted by repurposing the Francis Crick Institute's laboratory facilities as a testing facility, to help combat the spread of infection and allow healthcare workers to perform lifesaving duties while remaining safe. The institute, as well as other locations around the country, could accept even more samples for testing, to contribute towards the national COVID screening effort.

Sarah Woolnough, Cancer Research UK's executive director of policy and information, said: "The pandemic has left cancer diagnosis and treatment in a precarious position, and one of the ways that the NHS is adapting to ensure patients are receiving vital testing and care is through 'COVID-19 free' centres or hospitals. But this won't be possible without the appropriate testing of all staff and patients.

"Already, Cancer Research UK has helped to increase testing capacity through the Francis Crick Institute. We want to continue to contribute towards the national effort to beat COVID-19, so that cancer patients can receive the care that they need during this difficult time."

Professor Charles Swanton, Cancer Research UK's chief clinician, said: "This pandemic is having a major impact on patients suffering from cancer and the direction it's heading is really concerning. Delays to diagnosis and treatment could mean that some cancers will become inoperable. But it's not too late to turn this around. Cancer patients shouldn't need to wait for the pandemic to pass before getting the treatment they need.

"We can create a safe environment for both staff and cancer patients now that testing efforts are escalating quickly. Staff in hospitals around the country are working extremely hard and with more testing of staff and patients - with and without symptoms - we will have hospitals and centres relatively free from COVID-19 where patients can be treated safely, and post-operative complications can be minimised."

The sudden stop of capital flow of a country means, according to experts, a bottleneck to its foreign finance, that is to say, the bankruptcy of the country, as it leads to the contraction of international capital flows and the purchase and sale of foreign assets.

Early detection -which is key to the adequacy of the macroeconomic policies of a country against the risk derived from such stops of capital flows- has been previously studied. However, researchers of the UMA have taken a step forward by designing a new and more accurate prediction model, based on a sample of 103 countries, including emerging (73) and developed (30) countries, that were analysed for the period 1960-2016, thanks to the World Bank database.

"This event has significant negative effects on the global economy, as it has been proved that it leads to a drop in GDP growth, causes significant drops in production and employment, and gives rise to serious financial crises, hence, the importance of predicting it", explains researcher M. Belén Salas, main author of this study published in the scientific journal PLOS ONE.

'Sudden stops of capital flows' is the new global prediction model proposed by this research team of the UMA; an analysis of some economic parameters of these countries using decision trees, an innovative method never used before in this type of work.

Economic variables for decision-making

The result is a model for emerging countries, another for developed countries and one last model at a global level -thus far it has only been developed for emerging countries- that identify which economic factors have a direct connection to the stop of capital flows with the aim of predicting it, even one year in advance, and, therefore, being able to prevent it.

Thus, the researcher asserts that some of the more explanatory variables to predict the 'Sudden Stop' event in developed countries are the country's real interest rate, the monetary aggregate growth (M2), the rate of return of the stock market, the VIX index (an indicator that measures the volatility of the US stock market), the GDP growth (gross domestic product), the central government debt to GDP or the domestic credit to GDP.

"Hence, developed countries must be alert to the behaviour of these variables, since high real interest rates, public debt to GDP, M2 growth, the level of domestic credit and the volatility index are all linked to a higher probability of a sudden stop of capital flow", says Salas, who adds that a higher GDP growth and performance of the stock index are negatively related to the possibility of this event.

A new model that can be used as a reference for setting the macroeconomic policy of a country, as it provides tools to be considered to achieve financial stability. It has been designed by the Foreign Trade Expert M. Belén Salas, with the participation of the researcher David Alaminos and Professors Manuel Ángel Fernández and Francisco López Valverde from the Faculty of Economy and the School of Computer Science Engineering of the UMA, respectively.

Bryophytes, phylogenetically placed between algae and pteridophytes, are divided into three classes, mosses, liverworts, and hornworts. Bryophytes are a source of traditional medicines throughout the world. Bryophyte phytochemistry is a fascinating research niche as some compounds - such as secondary metabolites - from these sources have been found to have bioactive properties. Liverworts and other bryophytes have yielded a rich array of secondary metabolites. Many of these compounds are characterized by unprecedented structures, and some have not been found in any other plants, fungi, or marine organisms. Among the bryophytes, the chemical constituents of liverworts and their biological activity have been studied in the most detail. In this article, Agnieszka Ludwiczuk (Medical University of Lublin, Poland) and Yoshinori Asakawa (Tokushima Bunri University, Japan) review the chemistry of the liverworts, mosses, and hornworts. The researchers highlight medicinal properties of different compounds such as the neuroprotective activity of dimeric herbertane-type sesquiterpenoids, mastigophorenes and secoaromadendrane-type sesquiterpenoids, marchantin-type cyclic bisbibenzyls with muscle-relaxant activity, or ent-longipinane-type sesquiterpenoids with acetylcholinesterase inhibitory activity, among others.

In 2019, the global population without access to electricity dipped below 1 billion for the first time. This progress has however been uneven, both across and within different regions. A new IIASA study shows that to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern electricity services by 2030 in sub-Saharan Africa, the pace of electrification must more than triple.

The bulk of improvements in global access to electricity between 2014 and 2019 were observed in Central and Southern Asia and a few areas of Africa. Nearly two thirds of those still without access to electricity - about 570 million people - are in sub-Saharan Africa, where there are around 30 countries with electrification levels below 50%, making the region a global hotspot of energy poverty. Even in areas that are formally electrified, power consumption and supply reliability are largely inadequate.

According to the authors of the study published in the journal One Earth, 520 million people in sub-Saharan Africa will remain without access to electricity by 2030 if the electrification rollout in the coming decade keeps the same pace observed in the 2014 to 2019 period, and regional populations grow according to the most recent UN estimates. This would mean that to fulfil Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicator 7.1.1 - which aims to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services for all by 2030 - progress must ramp-up immediately for the coming decade. On average, this implies that almost 75 million people need to gain access to electricity every year until 2030, compared to the average 22 million people that received access per year for the 2014 to 2019 period.

The researchers highlight that the datasets needed to address this challenge, are not always readily available, as generating them calls for costly and large-scale household surveys, which might not be feasible for all nations to do frequently - or even at all in some cases. In addition, aggregated national statistics are unable to assess the degree of sub-national inequality that characterizes energy access and its quality, or the increasing pressure driven by population growth and migration. To fill this gap, the researchers built on previous efforts to exploit satellite information. Satellite data can be an important complement to other sources of data, and is a cheap, rapidly updated resource to improve the tracking of energy poverty, and in particular, progress towards SDG7.

Previous applications of satellite data have shown that combining nighttime lights and human settlement data can be used to track the rollout of electrification, map power transmission and distribution infrastructure, and measure economic development and inequality. The main limitation of this approach is that nighttime lights was considered mostly to determine whether residents of an area have access to electricity or not. It did not further explore the intensity of the light detected to derive and validate proxy measures of electricity access quality.

"The key question we wanted to address was whether satellite data of nighttime lights have potential to support institutions tracking electricity access, by complementing and validating a variety of household derived information. In particular, we introduce a low-cost geospatial indicator that can be updated easily and in near-real-time. Another important objective was to form a clearer picture of the inequality in the recent progress in electricity access, both at country-level and sub-nationally. The most innovative part of our work, however, concerns the ability to link electricity use to satellite-measured luminosity to define tiers of access based on the World Bank Multi-Tier Framework and enable estimating energy poverty, even where electricity infrastructure is available," explains lead author Giacomo Falchetta, a researcher in the Future Energy Program at the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) in Italy.

The underlying trends analyzed in the paper reveal that additional dimensions and dynamics such as urban and rural areas changing at different rates, in both electrification rollout and demographic terms, must be considered. Electrification has moved faster in rural than in urban areas in relative terms, and yet the bulk of progress took place in urban settlements. Among those with access to electricity, there is a vast distribution across access quality tiers. For instance, in some countries with strong recent electricity access growth, the estimated final use remains very limited among newly electrified households. This is consistent with the findings of previous studies showing very low electricity consumption by newly connected customers. This could be ascribed to limited appliance uptake and use among the poor.

Challenges with extending central grid infrastructure to remote regions has resulted in an increasing market penetration of decentralized energy solutions that are forecast to be the least-cost option to bring electricity to households currently without access in many locations across sub-Saharan Africa. Care is required in the sizing of such distributed solutions because if under-scaled, they may be insufficient to meet growing demand from different sectors and thus exacerbate inequalities, while an over-sizing could make the system economically unsustainable for both users and the companies managing the infrastructure.

Finally, as sub-Saharan Africa is already witnessing rapid urbanization, the analysis suggests that providing secure, sustainable access even to urban centers with relatively high population densities may be increasingly challenging. Infrastructure expansion in slums is particularly tricky due to the geographical configuration of such areas, legal, regulatory and market risks for investors, and the ability of the poor to afford electricity.

The authors say that taken together, these results raise questions over the effectiveness of electrification plans and programs and suggest the need to critically evaluate the success of electrification programs beyond their role in boosting national electricity access statistics. It also implies that large gaps in unmet demand might remain both across and within countries, even under a scenario of universal electrification by 2030.

"Policies aiming to achieve the SDG7 target of universal electricity access need to facilitate longer-term planning and provide for a decent level of electricity service to all beyond just connections. This requires planning for infrastructure expansion that is commensurate and scalable to subsequent demand growth as incomes rise. Acknowledging the significant geographical dimension to electricity access, puts remote regions at a distinct disadvantage. At the same time though, high grid-connection charges, along with other barriers, can limit the expansion of access, even for households under reach of existing national grids. Overcoming these barriers requires smart payment schemes and innovative business models," concludes study coauthor and Acting IIASA Transitions to New Technologies Program Director, Shonali Pachauri.

What effects do global warming and the formation of fine particles have on each other? Since the entire atmosphere cannot be heated for experimental purposes, a part of it is put in a chamber and investigated there. Now, a standard procedure has been drawn up for analysing fine particles in experimental chambers.

To better understand the mechanisms associated with fine particle formation, atmospheric events can be experimentally studied in relatively large containers known as experimental chambers. In these chambers, atmospheric conditions, such as temperature, pressure, humidity, gases and particles are altered in a controlled manner.

Now, the conditions of the experimental chamber and methods used have been standardised in a research project headed by the Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) of the University of Helsinki. From now on, dozens of research groups conducting chamber measurements will adhere to the protocol established in the study published in the distinguished Nature Protocols journal.

Global warming also affected by fine particles

What happens when the temperature of the Earth rises? What happens to clouds, their reflectance, and the formation of fine particles?

Fine particles in the atmosphere have an essential impact on global warming. For example, there are no clouds without particles: clouds need a seed from which they are formed, a core around which humidity starts to condense. Additionally, cloud colour and reflectance depend on the fine particles contained in the cloud.

Currently available equipment can be used to monitor how fine particles are formed from atmospheric gases, right from the very first phase, at the level of nanometre-sized molecular clusters. How do they form, and how do they disappear? Of particular interest in the formation of particles is how fast the formation and growth of molecular clusters is, and how many particles there are in the end.

The standard established in the study determines how chamber measurements should be conducted and how the speed of particle formation and growth is calculated, margins of error included. After the adoption of the standard method, different chamber measurements can be easily compared.

Simulating the past and future

Atmospheric particles originate partly from human activity, partly from nature. Today, some 10 to 50% of the gases and particles, or aerosols, in the atmosphere are produced by human activity.

Chamber measurements can simulate not only future conditions but also those that prevailed centuries or millennia ago on Earth. For example, they can be used to simulate the state of the air and clouds in the preindustrial period or before the human era.

Studying the formation and effect of nanoparticles helps us better understand vast global phenomena impacting the lives of us all, such as climate change.

The number of children infected with the coronavirus is far more extensive than what is currently reported -- a hidden detail that could vastly underestimate the demand on health care systems and pediatric intensive care units (PICUs).

A new study published in the "Journal of Public Health Management and Practice" from the University of South Florida (USF) and the Women's Institute for Independent Social Enquiry (WiiSE), estimates that for each child who requires intensive care for COVID-19, there are 2,381 children infected with the virus. This calculation follows a report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention regarding its clinical study of over 2,100 children in China with COVID-19.

According to the North American registry, Virtual PICU Systems, 74 children in the U.S. were admitted to PICUs between March 18 and April 6, signaling an additional 176,190 children were likely infected during this timeframe. Children younger than 2 accounted for 30 percent of the cases, 24 percent were ages 2 to 11 and 46 percent of the PICU cases were children between ages 12 and 17. Researchers say that if as many as 25 percent of the U.S. population becomes infected with the coronavirus before the end of 2020, 50,000 children with severe illness will need to be hospitalized, with 5,400 of them critically ill and requiring mechanical ventilation. Clinical reports indicate the average length of stay for pediatric COVID-19 is 14 days. According to a national survey aimed to evaluate the U.S. pediatric critical care capacity and published in "Critical Care Medicine," there are approximately 5,100 PICU beds in the U.S.

"Although the risk of severe illness from COVID-19 is lower in pediatric cases than adults, hospitals should be prepared and have the proper equipment and staffing levels to deal with a potential influx of younger patients," said author Jason Salemi, associate professor of epidemiology in the USF College of Public Health. "Government officials and policy makers should understand the likelihood of capacity challenges, which underscores the importance of effective mitigation strategies such as frequent and thorough handwashing and persisted social distancing measures."

Pediatric coronavirus is highly complex, as many hospitals are prohibiting visitors in order to implement social distancing and quarantine protocols. A caretaker may also be infected, which would require logistical and infection control accommodations that place an additional strain on hospital resources. Upon hospital discharge, young children may be unable to independently comply with home infection control and self-isolation recommendations.

Researchers point out the infection rate will be much higher for children in low-income families with parents in blue-collar and service jobs, which preclude the option of working from home. There's also an increased risk to children who live in urban public housing projects due to the close proximity of housing units and small communal recreation and commons areas.