Econometric study on the JUUL system’s market entry in Canada finds vaping product availability could reduce combustible cigarette sales

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Juul Labs

San Francisco (July 28, 2020) -- As part of Juul Labs' ongoing engagement with the public health community, the company today announced findings from a new study at the AcademyHealth 2020 Annual Research Meeting linking the JUUL System's market entry to decreased cigarette sales in Canada. The conference, which took place virtually, focuses on the intersection of health, health care, and policy.

The study, conducted and presented by Dr. Shivaani Prakash, Juul Labs' Director of Health Economics and Policy Research, found that the JUUL System's market entry in Canada likely decreased combustible cigarette sales, especially in urban markets. Using city-level data on cigarette and JUUL System sales in Canada and variation in timing of the JUUL System's market entry in a study, researchers ran econometric difference-in-difference models. They found that within the first 12 months of market entry, market entry and availability of the JUUL System likely led to a 1.5% decrease on average in store-level cigarette sales volume, within one large retailer chain. Overall, this could translate to over 400 million fewer cigarettes sold in Canada within the first year of the JUUL System's market entry.

They also found that the decline in cigarette sales magnified as the JUUL System's market share increased in stores, suggesting that local tobacco market competition plays a strong role in uptake and purchase of vaping products. For every 1% increase in the JUUL System's market share at the store-level, there was an associated 0.5% reduction in cigarette sales.

“This work provides strong evidence that the availability of vaping products could reduce cigarette sales, and suggests that providing alternative nicotine products to adult smokers could drive down combustible cigarette consumption,” said Rasmus Wissmann, Vice President of Data at Juul Labs. “Further research is needed to determine the long-term impact of vapor products on cigarette sales, and the net population health impact of such products.”

Identifying the impact of vaping products in global markets can help policymakers understand the role of alternative nicotine products in the commercial tobacco product market, and better evaluate the impact of such products.

As part of the Premarket Tobacco Product Application (PMTA) process in the United States, Juul Labs has built a comprehensive research program focused on examining the public health impact of the JUUL System. This includes research on the JUUL System's impact on the individual user, their ability to convert adult smokers from combustible cigarettes, and the net-population impact on public health.

Juul Labs will continue to share results from its science and research program with the public health communities as it works to support the scientific basis for the category, as well as future regulatory filings.

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Orangefiery