COVID-19 Reflections: Severe lockdowns and Stay-at-Home orders have been hallmark of the national and global response to this Pandemic. They have been imposed with little precedent and scant evidence of their effectiveness as opposed to less restrictive social distancing measures.
Given the widely acknowledged negative medical and socioeconomic impacts of these interventions their assessment is critical. Over the two months since their imposition, US cases have soared to some 1.5 million and deaths have exceeded 100, thousand and the epidemiological curve has only recently begun to drop even with an infectious disease that has an average incubation period of 5 days. The reasons for this are explored as well as implications for going forward.
Given the unrelenting march of this Pandemic and a safe and effective vaccine probably at least a year away, if at all, Herd Immunity needs to be looked at as a reasonable strategy. The issues of transmission, and individual and population susceptibility are addressed as well as what the realistic level of Herd Immunity required might be.
Importantly, Herd Immunity is not an all or none figure; any increase in the number of non-susceptibles in the population will decrease transmission and truly help "flatten the curve."