ALBANY, Calif.—A recent study by a team of scientists from the U.S. Forest Service's Pacific Southwest and Pacific Northwest research stations, and the University of Idaho confirms the important role climate plays on bark beetle outbreaks. Based on three decades of bark beetle outbreaks in Oregon and Washington, the researchers developed a statistical probability model to quantify the contribution of various climate conditions, such as temperature and precipitation, on outbreak levels and to estimate expected amounts of damage to lodgepole pine forests (e.g. total area with beetle outbreaks).
Key findings, which appeared in the journal Ecology, include:
The findings of the study contribute to the broader understanding of drivers of landscape level mountain pine beetle outbreaks in lodgepole pine forests, particularly in view of future climate change projections that could significantly alter key climate related factors.
"This study was partly motivated by the need to develop a statistical model for evaluating laboratory-derived bark beetle suitability indexes at the landscape level," says Pacific Southwest Research Station scientist Dr. Haiganoush Preisler, who co-authored the report.