WASHINGTON - There would not be sufficient benefit to updating estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC) within a year based only on the revision of a specific climate parameter in the existing framework used by the government's interagency group to measure the SCC, says a new interim report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The committee that is conducting the study and wrote the report recommended ways to change federal technical support documents on the SCC to enhance the characterization of uncertainties associated with the estimates, including when used in regulatory impact analyses.
The committee considered whether a near-term change is warranted based on updating the probability distribution for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) -- a parameter that translates carbon dioxide emissions to global temperature change -- and that was updated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its most recent Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Because ECS is only one input to the detailed framework used to estimate the SCC, updating the ECS alone may not significantly improve the estimates.
The SCC estimates, in dollars, the net long-term damage to society caused by a 1-metric ton increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a given year. It is intended to be a comprehensive estimate of the costs associated with climate change, such as changes in net agricultural productivity, risks to human health, and property damage from increased flood risks. The federal Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IWG) developed a methodology to estimate the SCC, which government agencies use to place a value on the carbon dioxide impacts of various regulations, including standards for vehicle emissions and fuel economy, air pollutants from industrial manufacturing, and emissions from power plants and solid waste incineration.
Rather than simply updating the ECS within models used in the current framework, the IWG could undertake efforts to develop a common representation of the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and changes in temperature, its uncertainty, and its profile over time. The report outlines specific criteria that could be used to assess whether such a representation is consistent with the best available science.
Phase two of this study will examine the merits and challenges of potential approaches for a more comprehensive, longer-term update to the SCC estimates to ensure they continue to reflect the best available science. The final report will be released in early 2017.
The study was sponsored by the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon, which is co-chaired by the Council of Economic Advisers and Office of Management and Budget; the other members are the Council on Environmental Quality, Domestic Policy Council, U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Economic Council, Office of Science and Technology Policy, and U.S. Department of the Treasury. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are private, nonprofit institutions that provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions related to science, technology, and medicine. The Academies operate under an 1863 congressional charter to the National Academy of Sciences, signed by President Lincoln. For more information, visit http://national-academies.org. A committee roster follows.
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Copies of Assessment of Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon: Phase 1 Report on a Near-Term Update are available from the National Academies Press on the Internet at http://www.nap.edu or by calling 202-334-3313 or 1-800-624-6242. Reporters may obtain a copy from the Office of News and Public Information (contacts listed above).
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINEDivision of Behavioral and Social Sciences and EducationBoard on Environmental Change and Society
Committee on Assessing Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon
Maureen L. Cropper, Ph.D.* (co-chair)Distinguished University Professor and ChairDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of MarylandCollege Park
Richard G. Newell, M.P.A., Ph.D. (co-chair)Gendell Professor of Energy and Environmental EconomicsNicholas School of the Environment, andDirector, Duke University Energy InitiativeDuke UniversityDurham, N.C.
Myles Allen, Ph.D.Professor of Geosystem ScienceClimate Dynamics GroupDepartment of PhysicsUniversity of OxfordEngland
Maximillian Auffhammer, Ph.D.Associate Dean of Interdisciplinary Studies, andProfessor of International Sustainable DevelopmentDepartment of Agricultural and Resource EconomicsUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeley
Chris E. Forest, Ph.D.Associate Professor of Climate DynamicsDepartments of Meteorology and of Geosciences;AssociateEarth and Environmental Systems Institute; andAssociate DirectorNetwork for Sustainable Climate Risk ManagementPennsylvania State UniversityState College
Inez Y. Fung, Sc.D.*Professor of Atmospheric SciencesDepartments of Earth and Planetary Science and of Environmental Science, Policy, and ManagementUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeley
James K. Hammitt, Ph.D.Professor of Economics and Decision Sciences, andDirector, Harvard Center for Risk AnalysisHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; andAffiliateToulouse School of EconomicsHarvard UniversityBoston
Henry D. Jacoby, Ph.D.William F. Pounds Professor of Management (emeritus)Sloan School of ManagementMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge
Robert Kopp, Ph.D.Associate DirectorRutgers Energy Institute, andAssociate ProfessorDepartment of Earth and Planetary SciencesRutgers UniversityNew Brunswick, N.J.
William Pizer, Ph.D.ProfessorSanford School of Public Policy, andFaculty FellowNicholas Institute for Environmental Policy SolutionsDuke UniversityDurham, N.C.
Steven Rose, Ph.D.Senior Research EconomistEnergy and Environmental Analysis Research GroupElectric Power Research InstituteWashington, D.C.
Richard Schmalensee, Ph.D.Howard W. Johnson Professor of Management Emeritus and Professor of Economics EmeritusSloan School of ManagementMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge
John Weyant, Ph.D.ProfessorDepartment of Management Science and Engineering,Director of the Energy Modeling Forum, andDeputy DirectorPrecourt Institute for Energy EfficiencyStanford UniversityStanford, Calif.
STAFF
Jennifer Heimberg, Ph.D.Study Director
*Member, National Academy of Sciences
Source: National Academy of Sciences